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Variance is increasing dramatically for US Tourney Players

Date: Sun, Apr 22, 2007 Internet

Ever since Party, PokerRoom and SunPoker pulled out of the US market, the player pools have gotten so large at the remaining US sites (Stars, UB, FTP and AP) that variance has gone through the roof for small stakes US tourney players. Most tourneys below $100 buyin get at least 500 participants and most have over 800. The nightly $3 rebuy gets over 2,500 entrants. Crazy.

The problem is the more players, the higher the variance. Even very good players that might make the final table in 5-7% of the small field tourneys (less than 300 players), will only see the final table of these large field tourneys in about 1-2% of the tourneys they enter. That is incredibly frustrating.

You really only have two choices to reduce this variance; 1) Go up in buy in to the $50, $100 and $150 buy-in tourneys, which have much smaller entry pools (100-300 players), or 2) stick to the "max" entry tourneys like the Stars 180 man SNGs and the nightly 360 max tourneys.

Option 1 only makes sense if your bankroll can sustain tourney variance at these higher buyin levels.

I am opting for Option 2 and will be sticking to the small field "max" entry tourneys. It is just too frustrating to play great throughout the beginning and middle of these large field tourneys and then get nailed by a bad beat or coinflip late in the tourney.

Great example tonight. I played the $3 rebuy on Stars. I played well and went deep. Over 2500 players started and 504 made the money. However, except for the top 36 spots, the money was really immaterial. Well with about 150 players, I had a decent stack and lost half of it when my KK lost to AJ -- ugly. I did not want to be all in but had to call an all in reraise with KK.

Then I went out 128th when my AQ lost to AT. What an utter waste of time. Played for about 6 hours and won $38.

I am sticking to the 180 SNGs and 360 max tourneys. They take about 3.5 to 4 hours and I make the FT in about 5-7% of them that I play.

No more lottery tourneys for me!!

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Vote for the Worst --- TOO FUNNY

Date: Wed, Apr 18, 2007 Internet

This site is hilarious. They basically target the worst of the Idol contestants and then urge their readers to vote that person back each week. As a result they basically negate the whole premise of the show's weekly singing competition.

I am now dying to see how this ends. Will they get Sanjay all the way to the finals?

A total of 35 million people voted for contestants this week and they have over 10 million hits on their website per week. They are definitely having an impact.

You just have to love America and free speech! Or maybe this is another reason to hate us...whichever at least we have your attention.

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180 man SNG on Stars

Date: Sun, Apr 15, 2007 Internet

Since the beginning of the year, I have been playing a lot more tourney's on Pokerstars and I have had relatively good success. However, the Top 3 finishes have been frustratingly infrequent because of the large number of players in every PS tourney (typically over 500 and often over 1,000).

So on Friday I played my first 180 person SNG on PS in about a year and as luck would have it I took 2nd. This result is consistent with the other tourney on PS that I have had the most success in -- the $9.90 360 max tourney.

When the field is limited, there is much more chance to make it to the final table. If you can double up during the first hour then you have a legitimate shot. I advocate patience -- in this particular tourney I had a low M of between 4 and 8 from the 108th hand up to the 177th hand. I was patient and I would push with good hands and usually just take the blinds but occasionally double up.

Then near the bubble (18 paid) when we were down to about 22 players, I became much more aggressive. I would push with hands like KJs and happened to bust As with that hand. But the point is you pick up chips -- either you are going to double up, scoop the large blinds or go home.

Play moderately tight in the beginning but see a few speculative hands -- I like to see the flop with any pair for instance. Try to double up to buy yourself time to get to the bubble.

Play tight in the middle if your M is below 10 times -- only get involved if you have cards you are willing to get all in with and you should probably push with them to exercise fold equity. If you have a higher M then play solid poker, but not overly tight.

On the bubble, get very aggressive. Push with speculative hands (all pairs excepts 22, 33 and 44 -- large connected cards, AT and above, etc). This is where you want to steal blinds, double up or go home. There is no shame going home on the button as long as you are the one that pushed. DON'T call others pushes with K high, or Ax (below AJ) or pairs below 88. This is just a recipe for disaster. Push not call on the button.

Then when you get to the FT, I usually slow down considerably until 2-3 people have gone home. There is nothing worse than taking 8th or 9th in a tourney. You have realized your goal of reaching the FT, invested a large amount of time, but then get almost no cash for your effort. Play tight until 6-7 handed.

You can view the HandHistoryAnalzyer at PokerXFactor here, if you are a member.

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Easy Change for Big Results

Date: Fri, Apr 6, 2007 Internet

I have a simple change for you that can have a dramatic affect on your tourney (and cash game results). I see so many players doing this incorrectly and yet it is such a simple little change that it is completely overlooked.

drumroll please.....fold the small blind most most most of the time!!!

So many players complete because it is cheap, especially if it is limped to you. And while there may be pot odds to call, most players overlook the huge disadvantage of playing out of position for the remaining 3 streets. It is crazy how often I see player calling 2x bb raises with A rag or QJo from the small blind. I know the rationale is I already have money in the pot and if I hit big I will stack someone.

However, in tourney play that is dangerous thinking. Chips are precious and your odds of hitting the monster are very small (about 1.3%). What is much more likely is you catch a small piece of the flop with a bad kicker and out of position. Now what. Either you win a small pot or you lose a big one.

I do like to reraise a late position raiser from the small blind, but this is usually later in tournaments and its often for all my chips. At that point position no longer matters.

Looking at my PokerTracker tourney stats, as is typical I am a net loser from both blind positions and a big winner from the last 6 positions (button to button - 5). I voluntarily put chips in the pot from the SB, about 35% of the time, meaning that I fold 65% of the hands from the SB. That 35% is also skewed because it includes all the times late in a tourney when I will reraise a late position raiser with a wide range of hands.

Consider the blinds an ante for playing a round at the table and disregard the fact that you have those chips on a certain hand. It can dramatically reduce your tourney chip leakage.

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Guy Kawasaki's Blog

Date: Thu, Mar 15, 2007 Internet

If you do not know who Guy Kawasaki is -- you should. Guy was one of the original employees at Apple and later created the "product evangelist" position employed by many technology and consumer products companies.

But more importantly, he is a highly intelligent, well connected and very tech savvy. His blog is full of interesting features of the web, interesting new views on the world, technology, behavior, etc, etc, etc.

It is very cool and I highly recommend that you bookmark it.

This week he has an interesting entry about behavior called The Effort Effect. Whether you are an employee, manager, parent, student, you will want to check it out here.

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I need a New Luck Generator

Date: Sat, Mar 10, 2007 Internet

Mine was clearly broken last night.

Hate to post bad beats, but I played in 9 tourneys last night and did not reach the money in any and 6 of 9 ended in horrendous domination bad beats.

Raised with JJ in the middle position and got two callers. I had a medium to small stack - with a flop of 653 rainbow. I pushed the flop and one bonehead calls with 88. Just horrendous. Turn comes 4. Uh-oh here comes the....noooooooooo.....7 Runner-Runner is good. Lovely!

With a medium stack, it is folded to me on the button and I raise with ATo. The big blind is a large stack who has been aggressive and I expect him to reraise me -- the trap is set. He takes the bait and he pushes over the top - I insta-call. He lives up to expectation when he shows A6o. Yeehaw domination coming!!. 6 hits on fourth street and I am finished. Nice 3 outer.

More big stack silliness. I am in the small blind and it is folded to the cutoff (who has a big stack) who raises 3x bb. I am in the small blind with an average stack of about 20x bb -- and AKs (hearts no less - my favorite). I reraise to 9x the bb and he pushes a bit of contemplation. I assume he may have AT-AK or maybe a small to medium pair. With such a big pot to really chip up, I call quickly. He has T5o --- wow! But of course, about 30 5s come off on the board and I am out again.

These were the most brutal but also lost with AA to JJ and AK to AQ. Oh well not my night.

Sorry to bore you with bad beats, but it makes me feel slightly better to exorcise the demons.

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Four Consecutive Nights of Tourneys

Date: Sat, Feb 24, 2007 Internet

I had the rare opportunity to play a full night of tourneys for 4 nights in a row. Given family life, I rarely play more than 1 night per week. This was a rare treat.

I did fairly well cashing in 21% of the tourneys entered and making 3 final tables (7.9% of tourneys played). Unfortunately, I did not win any of them placing 4th, 5th and 6th at the 3 FTs. However, I should have made it to heads up in one of those tourneys and I like my chances head up.

However, I was knocked out of that tourney on the hand outlined below. A little background first though. I had played very well in this tourney and chipped up nicely when we were down to two tables. I was second in chips with 146,000 chips, but the chipleader had a massive stack with over 500,000 chips. The other three players had small stacks with 25,00 to 75,000 chips.

PokerStars Game #8531695368: Tournament #43326817, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (4000/8000) - 2007/02/20 - 03:27:16 (ET)
Table '43326817 43' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: gthumb (75984 in chips)
Seat 3: K-Rock2525 (527263 in chips)
Seat 4: Dogbreath (146524 in chips)
Seat 7: charliehalf (34020 in chips)
Seat 9: dms3838 (20209 in chips)
gthumb: posts the ante 400
K-Rock2525: posts the ante 400
Dogbreath: posts the ante 400
charliehalf: posts the ante 400
dms3838: posts the ante 400
K-Rock2525: posts small blind 4000
Dogbreath: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Dogbreath [Qh Ah]
charliehalf: folds
dms3838: folds
gthumb: calls 8000
K-Rock2525: raises 48000 to 56000

the button limps and the big stack raises it up to 7x the bb for 56,000 chips. I am in the big blind with AQs. This is a great hand 5 handed and I am torn here. There is a huge money difference between 5th and the top 3 spots. I have a great chance of getting to the top 3 spots given how short two players remaining. I could fold this hand and live or mix it up and try to build a big stack.

As I looked at the betting so far, the button either hand a monster or a weak hand by limping from the button. I thought K-Rock2525 sensed weaknesses and was simply making a move on the button. K-Rock had been raising nearly every hand once his stack was more than 2x my stack. This clearly looked like another move -- especially with the oversized bet. I decided that if I came over top here and he folded I would be taking down a 70,000 chip pot and really help to balance my stack with the chipleader.

I played to win and in hindsight this is one of the few times that is a mistake. I should have folded because of the two small stacks. This risk was not worth it given my large stack size. I had time to play patiently and I had been able to steal at least one set of blinds per round to at least maintain my stack. This was a clear fold in hindsight. If mine and the other 3 non-chipleader stacks had been similar in size then I made the right play by moving in, but with such a large differential between myself and the other stacks -- I should have folded.


Dogbreath: raises 90124 to 146124 and is all-in
gthumb: folds
K-Rock2525: calls 90124
*** FLOP *** [2s 6s Ks]
*** TURN *** [2s 6s Ks] [7c]
mcfarmer [observer] said, "spadeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"
*** RIVER *** [2s 6s Ks 7c] [Qs]
mattster24 [observer] said, "spd"
Bull62 [observer] said, "spade"
aa_thief_aa [observer] said, "cha"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
K-Rock2525: shows [Qd As] (a flush, Ace high)
Dogbreath: shows [Qh Ah] (a pair of Queens)
mcfarmer [observer] said, "shipppppppppppp"
mattster24 [observer] said, "bink"
polyballer9 [observer] said, "booooom"
K-Rock2525 collected 302248 from pot
aa_thief_aa [observer] said, "boom"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 302248 | Rake 0
Board [2s 6s Ks 7c Qs]
Seat 2: gthumb (button) folded before Flop
Seat 3: K-Rock2525 (small blind) showed [Qd As] and won (302248) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 4: Dogbreath (big blind) showed [Qh Ah] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 7: charliehalf folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: dms3838 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Brutal way to go with the flush suckout and the myriad of railbirds, but that's poker.

I have provided the link here to the full tournament for any PokerXfactor subscribers.



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Laugh Break

Date: Mon, Feb 5, 2007 Internet

This has been circulating the email trail anonymously so I do not know who to give credit too, but I did not write it. I did take the liberty to substitute a couple poker references as it hits home a bit more firmly for us married players!!


INSTALLING HUSBAND

Dear Technical Support,

Last year I upgraded from Boyfriend 5.0 to Husband 1.0 and noticed a distinct slow down in overall system performance -- Particularly in the flower and jewelry applications, which operated flawlessly under Boyfriend 5.0.

In addition, Husband 1.0 uninstalled many other valuable programs, such as Romance 9.5 and Personal Attention 6.5 and then installed undesirable programs such as NFL 5.0, Local Poker 3.0, and Golf Clubs 4.1. Conversation 8.0 no longer runs, and Housecleaning 2.6 simply crashes the system. I've tried running Nagging 5.3 to fix these problems, but to no avail.

What can I do?

Signed,
Desperate
------------------------------------------------------------ ----- <>
Dear Desperate:

First keep in mind, Boyfriend 5.0 is an Entertainment Package, While Husband 1.0 is an Operating System.

Please enter the command: "http: I Thought You Loved Me.HTML" and try to download Tears 6.2 and don't forget to install the Guilt 3.0 update. If that application works as designed, Husband 1.0 should then automatically run the applications Jewelry 2.0 and Flowers 3.5.
But remember, overuse of the above application can cause Husband 1.0 to default to Grumpy Silence 2.5, Online Poker Pro 7.0 or Beer 6.1. Beer 6.1 is a very bad program that will download the Snoring Loudly Beta.

Whatever you do, DO NOT install Mother-in-law 1.0 (it runs a virus in the background that will eventually seize control of all your system resources). Also, do not attempt to reinstall the Boyfriend 5.0 program. These are unsupported applications a nd will crash Husband 1.0.

In summary, Husband 1.0 is a great program, but it does have limited memory and cannot learn new applications quickly. You might consider buying additional software to improve memory and performance. We recommend Food 3.0, Hot Lingerie 7.7 or BookClub 2.0 (for yourself).

Good Luck,
Technical Support


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New Year's Top 10 for Cash Games

Date: Sun, Jan 21, 2007 Internet

I have been spending a lot more time playing cash games for the last several weeks. The high level of variance in tournaments can be very frustrating so its a nice confidence booster to return to cash games. I mainly play lower limit NLHE, $.5/$1 or $1/$2 blind levels.

Winning play in cash games is dramatically different from winning play for tournaments because of the increasing blinds in tournaments. You must play much more loose aggressive in tournaments and you need to take risks that I would rarely take in cash game play. Because of the large differences, I thought I would prepare a Top 10 list of lessons that I have learned playing cash games to contrast my early Top 10 list for tournaments.

First let me preface this Top 10 with a few key facts. Because I like to play 4 tables at a time, I mainly play full ring games (9-10 players). So my play is Tight aggressive. I play short-handed tables much more loose aggressive -- almost like tournament play. However, it is difficult to play more than a couple of tables in short-handed play so I rarely play it. This analysis applies only to full ring games.

Second, as I said I play multiple tables so I am not able to analyze players to any depth at the table. I can tell after a few rounds who are the good players and who are the weak players, but I do not get much deeper than that. For the most part, I am waiting for good hands to make my return and minimizing losses in between. If you were playing only one table at a time, some of these would not apply because you would be able to play your opponent -- e.g., knowing he will check fold on fourth street if someone calls his unpaired continuation bet on the flop (a frequent tournament play).

Lastly, I am actually going to start with the most important first (vs the reverse order in my last Top 10) because the first two lay the groundwork for all the other later rules.

1. Your Hourly Return Comes from your Big Hands - Unlike in tournament play and short-handed play, blind stealing, bluffing and restealing with air, will only get you in trouble in low limit full ring games. Your money will be made when you get large hidden hands, such as trips, str8s, full boats and sometimes two pair. I will often sit for an hour or two with the same stack or slightly less before I get my first trips. Then I will double up with that trips hand when my opponent overplays an overpair. Trap with these big hands, let your opponent bet the flop, then raise on either fourth or the river to maximize the pot. This is your nirvana hand don't be afraid to get your chips in. Occasionally, you will lose a huge hand when you run into a bigger monster but "thems the breaks" -- most of the time your opponent will be overplaying TPTK, an overpair or two pair. Make them pay!

2. Minimize your Leakage Between Big Hands - This rule is really 1(a). Since all your money is made on number 1, you need to make sure you do not lose a lot of money on marginal hands while you are waiting for your monsters. That means when you get TPTK you want to try to keep the pot small. You should lead out or check raise with it, but if you meet heavy resistance you need to fold it down. Unless you know your opponent is a donkey, you have probably run into two pair or better and you are very likely to lose a lot of chips. While TPTK seems like a strong hand, it really is fairly marginal hand in full ring games. Most good players play by rules number 1 and 2, so they likely have a hand much better than TPTK when they are raising. This also goes for other similar hands, be cautious when you don't have monsters. There is no harm in folding a good, but not great hand, now to maximize your gains long-term. This was the toughest rule for me to master but mastering it has increased my returns dramatically.

3. Don't OVERPLAY Large Pocket Pairs - This is a subset of rule #2 and is the biggest mistake made by less skilled and new players. This leak is also the biggest income source for good players to exploit. Here is an example, you raise 3x or 4x the bb preflop with AA and get two callers. The flop comes 784 rainbow, what do you have. You have one pair! Yes you should lead out with a half pot to full pot bet depending upon your style. Now one player calls and the other folds. Where are you -- you should be very very worried. Unless you know your opponent is a calling station/donkey, then you are likely in big trouble. The likely hands you are facing include, 77, 88, 44, 56, 78s -- all of which are very bad. Now a Q comes on fourth street what do you do -- I would bet a third to half the pot and fold to any raise. Most players will raise their monsters on fourth street so this is a good spot for you to fold. As such, the raise is a clear indication that your are beat. If you are up against a great player capable of making this raise with air -- well then kudos to him and move on. There is no reason to waste a lot of chips to see that your opponent actually had a monster -- all the signs are there. Move on and minimize your leakage until you hit your monster. Don't be the guy that pays me off on my monsters!!

4. Push the River with Monsters - I used to try to figure out the exact amount that my opponent might call on the river when I knew I had the best hand. Often I would be betting a third of the pot or sometimes even less, but after watching a couple of other really good players I realized that pushing was the much better play. They were getting paid off much more often than I would expect, but then it hit me -- pushing makes perfect sense. By pushing the river, several things are happening. To most thoughtful players, a push looks weak -- and a river push often looks like an attempt to steal a big pot. So you may get calls from thoughtful players. If you are up against a poor player, you may get a call just because the donkey wants to be the sherriff, or he wants to call to see your hand, or he just has no idea what you have, or he can't lay down his AA. All are good reasons to push and hope for a huge payoff. Yes you risk a fold and the loss of maybe a third of the pot, if your opponent would have called that amount -- however the upside returns are so great that it is well worth the risk in my mind. You will be surprised how often your river push is called when you have that monster hand.

5. Toss Marginal Hands from Early Position - In a tournament, I might raise with AJ from early position, although most of the time I will fold. However in a ring game, I fold AJ, AT, KQ and similar hands 100% of the time from the first three positions at a full table. Again focus on the prize -- winning with big hidden hands. These hands will rarely yield big hidden hands -- very occasionally you will catch a str8 with them but not very often. Usually you will win a small hand with them -- you raise and get one caller, the flop comes with an A -- you bet and your opponent folds yielding a small pot. However, when you lose with these pigs it is usually a bigger loss and really quite aggravating. AQ or AK may call behind you then when you hit the A you are going to get raised on the flop or fourth street and then what? How far are you going to go with this potential loser --- tough decisions that I would just as soon avoid. Minimize your leakage with marginal hands!

6. Blind Stealing is not a Source of Profit in Full Ring Games - Yes you will win occasionally and I do raise from the cutoff of button when folded to me -- and yes I will do that with any two cards. However, I will fold immediately to a reraise and I am far less likely to raise that players blind again next time. The tiny amount that you can win stealing blinds in these games is not really worth the risk. If you tend to call reraises to see a flop, then do not get in the habit of raising blinds. This is just not necessary in full ring games -- wait for your big hands. One caveat here -- in short-handed ring games, blind stealing is very important because the blinds come around so often -- so please remember that I am referring to full ring games only.

7. Play AK more Cautiously than in Tournaments - We all know by now that AK is a hand that does much better when it can see all 5 cards. As such, many tournament player (myself included) will push all in with AK at critical times during tournaments. However, AK is a much better tournament hand than a ring game hand. You definitely do not want to push all in preflop with AK and you do not want to call all in preflop with AK. I often will simply call a raise with AK, however sometimes I will reraise if a couple players are in the pot to try to take it down right there. However, I play very cautiously after I am called with AK. Remember that you are likely to only have one pair or less when the flop comes and you have a caller that could have a monster. This is not to say don't bet. You absolutely should bet out your TPTK if you hit it -- just be prepared to lay it down if you run into stiff resistance.

8. Keep Rolling When Rolling - For some reason when you are rolling on a table, it seems that many of the players think you are bluffing more often. I tend to get more calls with my big hands than I do before I have built up a pile of chips. I don't exactly understand the psychology and I am a small sample, but it seems to work. It also probably means you have found a good table with weak players, so don't get up until you actually have to. While some players like to cash out when they double and go back into a new table with a lower amount of chips, I think this is a weak move. If you are still following all of the first 7 rules, there is no reason you should be worried about giving back all your profits. Now if you are the type of player that plays looser when you have a big stack, then by all means cashout before giving it back. But if you can keep your head, you have found a good table and don't give up that edge just to prevent leakage. Use your brain to reduce leakage!

9. Leave a Table if Uncomfortable - There are a lot of reasons you might be uncomfortable at a table; too much raising and reraising, can't get a read on players, abrasive chat, etc. Whatever the reason, don't play at a table where you are uncomfortable. That uncomfort could lead to leakages in your game. It could put you on tilt or it could just lead to looser play. There are too many tables in cyberspace to remain at a table that is not doing it for you. I will often sit at four tables and switch out one or two within the first 1/2 as I guage the action and interaction at the tables.

10. Play within your Bankroll - While I have thrown this one in at the end, that is only because it is the most important assumed rule for all of poker. I really should not have to list this one but it can really be critical in NL ring games. As I said earlier, there will be times when you get all your chips in with a monster and run into a bigger monster. NL is just a high stakes game -- as a result do not have a significant portion of your chips on the table at any one time. My general rule is I like to have no more than 1% to 2% of my bankroll on the 4 tables I am playing. There are many bankroll management books and articles, but make sure you are not risking an unreasonable amount of your bankroll in any one session so you can live to play another day.

Good luck at the tables.



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A New Year's Top 10 for Tournament Poker

Date: Mon, Jan 1, 2007 Internet

As we start the new year, I thought I would reflect back on some of the insights I have learned during the last year playing tournament poker. I have played online poker for about 4 years, but I have only played tournament poker for about 15 months. I have moved through an evolution in playing style during the past year that is probably similar to a lot of tournament poker players. I started playing very TAG (tight aggressive) then moved to very LAG (loose aggressive) and now back to a hybrid with very specific playing styles for different stages of the tourney. I will cover my specific strategy in more detail in a future write-up, but first lets lay the foundation with some of the key lessons I have learned during the past 15 months.

10. A Very Tight Player Can Win a Tournament. Like many players that start playing tournaments, I started out very tight. I was playing the way I might play a 10-handed NL cash game -- very TAG. I had some early success and won a tournament on SunPoker. However, what I did not realize until about 4-5 months later was that my win was complete luck. The cards aligned, all my big hands held up and I did not lose any races. That will happen once in a while, but playing very tight in tournaments will lead to a lot more frustration than a hybrid approach. Loosen up, steal and resteal and try to win a lot more pots after the flop without committing all your chips -- that strategy in the long-run will win a lot more tournaments for you.

9. LAG Does not Mean Wild. I often hear people describe LAG players as wild, impulsive or out of control. Ignorance is bliss -- and these people just don't get it. Good LAG players are anything but out of control. They know exactly what they are doing. Their strategy is to play a lot of small pots in order to accumulate chips without risking their tournament. If anything they are more in control than a TAG player that pushes in with big pocket pairs. Who is risking their tournament more often? However, this style is not easy to play and you should develop the ability to use the style for some of the tournament, but you need to be very good if you are going to try to use it for most of a tournament. The real key to this style is being able to get away from a hand post-flop -- good LAG players rarely commit all their chips unless they have a big hand.

8. Playing More than 4 Tourneys at Once is Negative EV. I have played up to 8 tourneys at once and the results just suck. I know that my results are just one sample, but I just do not see a way that someone can pay enough attention in tournament style poker to win consistently playing so many tourneys. With 4 you can pay close attention to one table and you have enough time to make good decisions when you are in a hand. But with more than 4 the decisions come too quickly to even think through your good hands. I highly recommend you stick to 4 or less tourneys at one time. BTW, try playing just 1 or 2 tourneys for a week or two to see if your win rate goes up -- it did not for me but it might for you.

7. Large Tourney Fields are Hugely Negative EV. For a while now I have really struggled with the question -- why do I suck at Stars so badly? I have negative results there since beginning tournament play. After analyzing in detail my results there I have come to the conclusion that my lack of success has everything to do with the tournament sizes. I do not think the players are any better at Stars than at UB or FTP, but the tourney field sizes are much bigger. I mostly play tournaments with buyins ranging from $20 to $50 (including $3 and $5 rebuys that end up in the same range). At Stars, tourneys in this range rarely have less than 700 entrants and often have over 1,500 entrants. Based upon my results, while I reach the FT in about 10% of the tourneys I enter under 600 entrants, I only reach the FT in about 3% of the tourneys over 600 entrants -- and it is even much smaller when you look at tourneys over 1,500 entrants. If you play these huge fields all day long, you are going to end up banging your head on the wall a lot. It is incredibly frustrating to spend 4.5 hours in a tourney to then get knocked out on a bad beat and only win back your initial buy in --- argghh I have done that too many times to count.

6. Resteals are More Valuable than Steals for Chip Accumulation. When I went through my early loose stage of tourney play, I thought LAG meant stealing a lot of blinds. I would raise on the button, cutoff and 2 off the button if it was folded to me with any two cards. The problem with this strategy is that few people give you credit for a big hand when you raise in late position. You will get repopped often and if you are sitting with air, you have to lay it down. While you do want to try to steal, I really try not to get out of hand stealing blinds unless I have a big stack. Rather, I like to watch the table and see who is raising more than others preflop. That person is an excellent target for a resteal. Lets look at the math -- say you try to steal the blind 2 times per round by raising 3x the bb. If you are successful each time you will win 3bbs per round and give back 1.5bb with the blinds, to net 1.5bb per round -- pretty good. Now, assume you resteal once per round -- a LAG player raises 3x bb and you come over the top for 3x his bet. If you win that confrontation, you have taken 4.5bb and you give back 1.5bb with the blinds, to net 3.0bb per round -- better. Of course the devil is in the details -- you need to be able to get away from your hand if your opponent moves all in or if you go to the flop and do not hit anything. It is a higher risk, but much higher reward strategy that will yield big results if you don't get out of control with it.

5. Slowplaying Big Hands is Key to Accumulating Chips. I know all the books say don't slowplay your big hands and that is probably true for cash games. However, in tournaments your chips are finite and your big hands are limited, you have to maximize the return you gain from these hands. Yes you will get sucked out on a few times and probably end up out of a couple tournaments as a result, but the bigger pots you pickup when it works will help you to your goal of a top 3 finish. For instance, late in a tourney and you look down to find AA. There is one raise in front of you and you are in the cutoff. Do you reraise or call? I suggest you call and hope that you get to the flop with 2 or less opponents. Flop comes all small and the raiser leads out -- I just call here and raise on fourth street. Yes he might have caught trips because I did not reraise preflop and I likely will get stacked in that case. However, if I can get him to bet off pot sized bets on the flop and 4th street, the pots I win are going to be huge. You might even get lucky and your opponent will put all his chips in with TT or JJ, while he might have folded those hands if you moved all in preflop.

4. Tournaments are Often Won or Lost Near the Bubble. You have to take advantage of this key time in a tourney. Most players tighten up considerably both on the money bubble and the final table bubble. Both are great times to increase your preflop raising, however you want to slowdown your resteals here. Most players have tightened up, so if they raise you have to give them credit for a hand -- don't resteal unless you can push in for all your chips and feel good about it (for me that is probably AK, AQ and TT or above). However raising preflop now is positive EV because most people don't want to get involved unless they have a big hand. Additionally, the table is likely short-handed so your aggression should increase as a result. If you see a flop that you raised pre-flop, you should continuation bet unless the flop is very dangerous to your hand. Most of the time, you will be heads up and your opponent will not have hit the flop --- most players will not call or raise at this stage unless they hit the flop hard.

3. Tighten up Once you Reach the Final Table. Going out of a tourney 8th or 9th is not much better than going out 12th, but for some reason a lot more people will gamble needlessly once they reach the FT. You are much better to gamble when most of the field is tight (on the bubble) than when the field has loosened up (in the money or at the final table). I like to sit back and only play big hands until a few people go out at the FT. You don't want to reraise all in with 88 here and then lose to a gambling loose call by a player with AJ or AT. All the money is in the first 6 spots in a tourney, so when you reach a FT make sure to make it to the top 6 spots!

2. Getting to the FT Requires a Delicate Balance of Fear and Reckless Abandon. Having just one of these two traits is going to limit your success dramatically. You need to have both and balance them just right to win. If you are always willing to push in with JJ or TT, you are going to go out of a lot of tourneys to a race or dominated by a bigger hand -- I would call this reckless abandon. However, if you are never willing to call all in with JJ or TT you are giving up too much hand equity -- I would call this fear. Balance is the key, especially with a small to medium stack. You need to be willing to push in your chips when it folds around to you, but you should not be doing it recklessly with hands like A4 or A9 unless you know your opponent will fold. It is this balance that is the hardest thing to master in tournaments, but also the most rewarding when you do master it.

1. Don't go it Alone. To really become successful you need a mentor. If you don't have a mentor, then join a training site like PokerXFactor, Cardrunners or PokerMentors. If you are playing a stage of tournaments incorrectly, you will not correct it simply through experience. You need another perspective. Read the tournament forums, watch the best tournament players play the weekend tournaments, just don't try to go it alone. Your improvement will be much quicker with help.

Good luck all and happy new year.


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Ups and Downs

Date: Sat, Dec 23, 2006 Internet

I won a Mansion $50 tourney with $5k added a few weeks back and really played well throughout. With only 15 players left, I was actually the short stack after losing a large pot. From there I moved all in on about 5 of the next 15 hands and built my stack up to just under average.

When we got to the final table I had an average stack, but on the second hand at the final table I picked up AA in the small blind. It folded to the button who raised to 3x the bb. I smooth called from the small blind and the big blind folded. I wanted to slowplay my As here because if I won it could be a huge pot so the risk was worth it. The flop brought an AK3, so I had a big hand and was hoping the button hand the other A and maybe a K. I checked to the raiser and he bet out about 2/3 the pot, again I smooth called. Fourth was a blank and I checked he moved all in and I quickly called and won a very big pot.

About 5 hands later I picked up Ks and came over the top of an early position raiser to take it down preflop. With that hand I became the chipleader. From there I played fairly conservative until we were down to 5 handed where I turned up my intensity. I ended up winning it after an up and down heads up battle. It was my biggest win to date so very satisfying...

But I tell you that story to then follow it up with tonight's action. I went deep in the $25k guaranteed tourney on FTP tonight. And unfortunately, I lost my mind briefly and really made a bonehead play that knocked me out in 50th place. With a starting field of 1488, I was deep in this tourney. However, what sets the really good tourney players apart from stiffs like me is that they don't make stupid plays like this one.

With the blinds at 1k/2k and a 250 ante. I have 19958 chips. However I am in the bb and after postingthe blind and ante, I only have 17708 remaining. A player two off the cutoff min raises to 4k -- he has me covered with about 27k in chips.

Mistake #1, I have Qh6h and call the min raise. This hand sucks and I normally would never call from the blind with this trash. Yes I might hit the flush on the flop, but if so then I probably won't get action. So, my brain is screaming fold the hand, buy my fast and loose finger says -- eh its only another 2k and something good might happen. The pot is now about 11k.

The flop comes 4s, Js, As -- and I have nothing. However, that board is very scary and our villian probably does not like that board. Given the min raise, I figure he either has a monster or a marginal hand, probably not AK, AQ or AJ as those hands are vulnerable to multi-handed pots, so one should raise at least to 3x bb from mid to late position.

Our villian min bets 2k on this nasty flop. Boy does that feel weak. He is either trying to sucker me in or he is really weak. With his bet the pot is about 13k and I have 17k, so if I push it is about a pot sized bet back to the villian. I think for a while and just feel like he would check or maybe push (to feign weakness) if he had the flush. I also think that if he has an A he is going to bet more to try to figure out where he is in the hand.

The 2k bet just seemed weak to me and in the end my read was right. So I pushed. Unfortunately, my villian made a very bad call with 88 and no spade. He was beat by any A or any J, any flush and he was not a big favorite against a flush draw and other big cards. But he called which maybe he is brilliant and knew I had absolutely nothing -- but I doubt it. It was more likely a mistake.

However, lets look at my fancy pants post-flop play. Yes I had a good read, yes it was a good play to make against a good player ----- but in hindsight, my Mansion win should have showed me that there would be better spots down the road.

Yes, I was getting short on chips but it would be much better to push preflop with my stack to take down blinds and grow in that manner than to try this fancy play against an unknown competitor. I also should not be calling from the bb with this small stack. I have two preflop moves with only 8 bbs remaining --- push or fold.

A reraise all in preflop is an okay move in this spot. After all he is in fairly late position so his raising standard should be lower. However, I think the best play was to fold preflop and look for a better spot to push all in over the next 6-8 hands. I was not in desperate shape at this point and did not need to fire off the chips this way.

As it was, I ended up winning a mere $50, instead of having the potential for a much bigger win by hanging around.

To me that is the key point to take from this article. The best players hang around. They pick good spots to accumulate chips and do not donk off their chips when they get late in a tourney. They may go out with AQ against 77, or TT against AA, but they have picked good spots to get their money in. To win a tourney, you have to make the FT. To make the FT you have to make the final 3 tables. To make the final 3 tables, you have to make the money.

There is something to be said for hanging around. Don't make stupid plays like mine tonight.

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Where to Play now.....

Date: Sat, Nov 11, 2006 Internet

As you all know by now many sites have pulled out of the US market because of the recent legislation prohibiting online transfers related to gambling sites.

The loss of both Partypoker and Ongaming Network (Pokerroom) from the US market were particularly painful for tournament players because they were both sites had a high number of players and a robust tournament schedule.

With the loss of these sites, it is a good time to reassess the tournament offerings of the remaining sites serving the US market.

The New "Final Four"
Ultimatebet - UB has always had the best tournament structure in my mind, however there were never enough players to build the juicy prize pools. Well that has all changed now. with the exit of Party and Pokerroom, the Final Four have all gained significant tourney traffic. UB has benefited greatly from this increase in traffic and all of its tourneys now get between 150 and 400 players. With its slow blind structure (allowing for lots of post-flop play), this is excellent site for tournament players. To entice players from the exiting sites, they have been running double guarantee weekends -- with big overlays (money added by the site beyond the amount contributed by players entered in the tourney). UB offers freezeouts, rebuys and qualifiers to land-based tourneys.

Bodog - Bodog's tourney structure is nearly identical to UB's structure although it gets more extreme in the later stages of a large tournament. Their traffic of tourney players also continues to rise and they have a long history of seeding tournaments with large guarantees that carry overlays. They have recently added rebuy tourneys to round out their offerings. This is an excellent site for tourney players. Check out the nightly $30k guaranteed tourney, it is an excellent value for the $44 entry cost. Bodog offers freezeouts, rebuys and satellites to land-based tourneys.

Pokerstars - Stars has been the #1 site for tournament players for a long time, however with the exit of Party from the US market, it is now the biggest poker site overall. Their weekend tournament get huge numbers of participants at all level of buyins. They are great tournaments to play because the prize pools are huge relative to your buyin. However, with 700 to 3,000 entrants in most tournaments it is very difficult to make it to final table. You definitely want to play some of the tournaments at PS, but I would not suggest you play here exclusively or your confidence will be shot. The variation in tourneys with 700+ players is huge. Stars offers the widest selection of tournaments on the web, including freezeouts, rebuys and a multitude of satellites to land-based tourneys.

FullTilt - FTP is a great overall site with great graphics and a wide selection of cash games and tournaments. Their tournaments schedule is a good but a bit limited. They only offer one $24 NLHE tournament once very two hours so it gets very big fields. They do not offer rebuys yet no rebuys yet, which is also a negative. But it should definitely be one of your staple of tournament sites. They have added several of the larger buyin tournaments to their schedule which has brought in a lot of the top online players. Of the Final Four, their structure is probably the most extreme (least play after the flop), but it is fairly similar to Stars. One very cool differntiating feature at FTP is the final table. Unlike other sites, FTP has a unique graphic background for final tables that resembles the set of a WPT event. So if you can slog your way through the tourney field and make it to the promised land, you can feel like a star in their cool final table setting. FTP offers freezeouts and satellites to land-based events.

Others
Bugsy's - I would love to see Bugsy's benefit from Party's exit as they have an excellent tournament structure in which players start with a 200:1 stack to big blind ratio at the outset. That is the highest ratio for a normal stack tourney of any of the sites I have seen. However, the tourney fields are very small and usually range between 70 and 150 players. If they can get the field sizes up this will be an excellent site. Bugsy's offers freezeouts, rebuys and a few satellites to land-based tourneys.

Mansion - Mansion is a relatively new poker site that is growing very quickly. They have some unique promotions like PokerDome that have garnered a lot of publicity. The PokerDome was a series of freeroll tounaments that landed several qualifiers into a televised final table event. The number of tourney players at the site is still relatively small though. To try to beef up that tourney traffic, they are offering a huge promotion of high guarantee tournaments in December. These guarantee events should all have overlays and offer excellent values for tournament players. I plan to spend a lot of time at Mansion in December. Mansion offers freezeouts, rebuys and a few satellites to land-based tourneys.

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Perspective

Date: Wed, Oct 18, 2006 Internet

We buried my grandfather earlier today. Joe was 90 this year, a veteran of WWII and the first person that got me interested in cards. While we never played poker together, we played just about every other card game invented. I grew up playing Hearts, Spades, Euchre, Gin and many other card games around the kitchen table largely because of my grandfather's love of card games. He would have been a damn good poker player. He taught me how to finesse with cards and how to set-up future plays. While we did not see eye to eye on many things in life, we bonded through card games and I am grateful for that.

A funeral can really bring perspective into your life. It is a good time to step back and really assess where you are in your life and your relationships. On average we only have about 85 years on this planet and we really need to make each day count.

Thanks -- Grandpa Joe.

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