Red Line, Part II

Date: Sun, Jun 8, 2008 Professional Internet

I've been working on my game quite a bit - I feel that having a negative "Money Won w/o Showdown" is a leak and thus have been thinking of big areas where this has been hammering me.

I did a few sweat sessions with a CR member named Alex whose red line goes straight up and we talked about the differences between his game and mine. Over 44K hands his blue line was back to zero, so his profits would come from the non showdown pots.

We also broke down a few hands and talked about the hand ranges we are repping and what the villain is repping in certain situations. Given all this, I decided to aggressively apply some of the things that I've already been thinking about as well as what Alex and I discussed. Here is my morning session at 100NL:

I'm not going to go into details about exactly what changes I've done since a lot of you are playing me on Stars so I don't want to make you play me more effectively :)

Edit: Poland plays Germany today in the Euro Cup. They are expected to lose but I really hope for a good game and perhaps the upset. Go Red and Whites!

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The Red Line

Date: Thu, Jun 5, 2008 Professional Internet

This really bothers me, but my PT3 graph these days looks like this:

Basically my won $ w/o showdown is a steady downward slope. There are a number of reasons for this but I'm still exploring them. What I want to do is go down to 50NL and try to keep my red line either up or at least hovering around 0.

I remember Fabian talking about how he's a slight loser at showdown and most of his winnings come w/o showdown. This is very different from my game at the moment.

I have some ideas of things I'm going to do differently in my next few sessions at 50NL but I won't write about them on here just yet. I've talked to a friend whose red line just goes straight up and our games are very different at the moment. I'm also datamining some good 5/10 players and analyzing their graphs/styles for some insight.

I'm guessing that a lot of CR people have a graph which is similar to mine and non-optimal IMO. If your red line is flat or goes straight up and would like to offer me some suggestions or have some observations on the topic please let me know.

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Preflop vs. Postflop Agression

Date: Tue, Jun 3, 2008 Professional Internet

Jaydubl posted the following question about my recent video:

In general do you think this is a bit different to the way most CR pros have played in the past? My memory might not be spot on, but I remember cold calling being some sort of sin in these parts! It was like, 3bet or nothing. Reasoning being that you have more ways to win + the initiative etc. I know thats the way I feel I've been taught/conditioned to play, or perhaps I had some selective hearing and missed out plays like the ones you demonstrate.

I wrote out some of my thoughts on this and wanted to cross-post them on my blog:

Yeah ... so this is something I've been thinking a lot about. I can start getting into this here but my thought process is still very much a work in progress.

I guess the big topic is 3-betting. There are a bunch of reasons to 3-bet. These include:

1. For value.
2. To build an aggressive image which gets you paid off later.
3. To isolate a weaker player.
4. Because someone calls a lot pre-flop and then folds post-flop.
5. There is dead money in the pot. This is where squeezing comes in .

A lot of these are connected. The more you 3-bet the more aggressive your image becomes. But ... you can also have a very aggressive post-flop image. One of the things I didn't include in the video is calling with these hands and then bluff-raising a lot of flops in general. This is pretty important.

Basically I think there is a big trend toward emphasizing pre-flop poker instead of post-flop. When asked what style he would play if he played 100NL, Phil Galfond said "I dunno ... maybe something like 28/10? I have a big edge post-flop."

So as your perception of your post-flop edge grows, I think you should look to get in and player more flops cheaply. This brings up kind of the crux of this whole argument:

There is a lot more money to be made post-flop.

I think that the most important thing to notice is how often someone calls pre-flop and then folds the flop. If they are doing this (or folding to a lot of 3-bets), then by all means 3-bet them. On the other hand if people call a lot you'll just play inflated pots with marginal hands.

So let's say that a 20/16/2 regular opens from MP to 4BB and you are sitting with 8c7c on the button. One of the players in the blinds is a fish and you think he'll come along as well. Your image is a 22/16 TAG. You also know that the 20/16/2 regular folds to 3-bets 75% of the time and 4-bets 6% of the time. You also know that he c-bets 75% of the time and folds to a flop raise 60% of the time and c-bets the turn 50% of the time.

Knowing all that, let's look at our options:

1. We can 3-bet and risk 12BB's and hope to fold out everyone. We risk 12BB's in order to win 4BB + 1.5BB = 5.5BB's. So 75% * 5.5 - 0.25 * 12 = 1.125 BB immediate profit if he folds.

2. It goes to the flop heads-ups. We know that the player will c-bet 6BB's into the 9BB's 70% of the time. If he checks we will bet almost always and expect him to fold. Thus we'll 9BB's 30% of the time.

We could bluff-raise. Thus we risk 16BB's to win 9BB + 6BB = 15BBs. Since he folds 60% of the time this shows an immediate profit of 60% * 15 - 40% * 16 = 2.6BB's

We could also just float a wide variety of flops and then bet the turn (or even raise the turn). If we flat call there is now 9BB + 12BB = 21BB in the pot.

Given all these situations, I think there is a lot more money to be made post-flop on later streets - either by going to showdown, floating, bluffing, etc ...

3. If we call we call and the fish calls or the fish folds we get to play some post-flop poker. It is a lot more likely the the fish will call if we call. Thus we are looking to play a 12BB pot in position. There we will get to make good post-flop decisions.

To sum it up:

1. These types of hands are great for risking a little in order to win a lot if you play them correct. Implied odds through the roof!

2. Post-flop aggression is more profitable in terms of EV than pre-flop aggression.

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It's June!

Date: Sun, Jun 1, 2008 Professional Internet

I'm still right on track with the plan. Finished up $655.35 today with the majority of the hands coming at 100NL. Here is the graph for the day:

You can probably spot right around where the hand of the day happened. I was playing pretty break-even poker and I told myself I would take a break when i was even. Then this hand happened:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2696911

This is something that Dodgyken and I have been discussing - playing the turn strongly in re-raised pots. It makes people flip out and do silly things. I have a lot of examples of this but this is as illustrative as they come.

On the flop he called really quickly which made me not think that he's got a set. This means he's calling pretty light and just wants to get to showdown. I don't want to let him do that hence the bet. I still have plenty behind for him to have some FE and it really puts him to a decision.

If I checked the turn he probably checks behind and I lose a lot of value. I am going to start implementing the 1/2 pot bet on the turn in a lot more of my re-raised pots - both as a bluff and for value. Too many people like to float and get to showdown cheap. This puts them out of their comfort zones.

So ... 6 days down! Here are my stats since going full-time:

What I'm really happy about is the discipline I've had in not getting frustrated, not tilting, and sticking to my plan of between $500 and $1000 per day. Except for one horrendous session, I'm playing my A game almost always. The plan is still to get to $100,000 in the next 359 days. I think most of it will happen at 200NL and 100NL but as I get really comfortable I might start playing some 2/4 later on. I sweated Dodgy there this morning and we made about $2K which was excellent although obv a heater.

I've also been 8-tabling which means that my bb/100 might be suffering but my hourly rate is what I'm all about. I'm running a tad under $100/hr which I'm happy with. In addition to this I plan on cashing out the $1,500 Supernova bonuses once I get there which I will not count toward the $100,000. I want that figure to be displayed in my pokertracker.

Honestly, anything over $60/hr is great for me! I got paid $35/hr as a school teacher so ship it so far :)

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TT: Situational Poker

Date: Sat, May 31, 2008 Professional Internet

I had a pretty good day today - got to my magic $500 number after about 3 hours and stopped. I'm finding it really hard to play for more than an hour at a time. I think I have a pretty bad attention span. Those 3 hours were broken down into 4 sessions - two at 100NL and two at 200NL. Here is an interesting hand that happened and how my decision changed as the hand played out:

Now, MFCMark is playing 16/14/3.25 over 163 hands. When he raises from the CO, I think there might be more value in just calling. While I'm going to be playing OOP, I expect him to 4-bet me with hands that I would be flipping against (AK and AQ). I also think that he will fold to most of my 3-bets and tens sucks vs. this type of player OOP in a re-raised pot.

I also think that if he's raising UTG or UTG + 1 I need to flat call here almost always with 88 - TT and play some poker. Even maybe JJ. So that was my plan.

This changed after I got the button caller. Now I think the value of my TT OOP goes down dramatically and I really need to define my hand and squeeze. So my plan changes and I decide to 4-bet to protect my hand.

Seat 1: MFCMark ($202.90)
Seat 2: resetdave ($101.55) -
Seat 3: BUG BOY ($132.10) -
Seat 4: TheXC ($95) -
Seat 5: Robinson47 ($98.50)
Seat 6: jondavies ($187)

PRE-FLOP:

BUG BOY posts small blind $0.50
TheXC posts BIG blind $1
Dealt To: TheXC


FOLD Robinson47
FOLD jondavies
RAISE MFCMark ($4)
FOLD resetdave
CALL BUG BOY ($3.50)
RAISE TheXC ($13)
FOLD MFCMark
FOLD BUG BOY

TheXC collected $12 from main pot

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $12 Rake: $0

Seat 1: MFCMark folded before Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-4)
Seat 2: resetdave button folded before Flop didnt bet - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 3: BUG BOY small blind folded before Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.5)
Seat 4: TheXC big blind collected 12 - Net Gain/Loss: ($7)
Seat 5: Robinson47 folded before Flop didnt bet - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 6: jondavies folded before Flop didnt bet - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)

Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Nothing really that special, but I thought it was interesting how one little element completely changed my reasoning in the hand. TT plays pretty well HU but very poorly 3-way when I'm going to be OOP.

Anyhow - I'm loving life right now. I was talking to Coleman (Dodgyken) and telling him that I feel like every day is a Saturday. I wake up, walk the dogs, get a session of poker in, eat breakfast, more poker, and suddenly it's noon.

I'm also thinking about going out to Vegas for the start of the main event. A lot of my friends will be out there. Katy is going out of the country for a while so I figured I would go for a couple of days. Hopefully I can crash with some friends (Luke Butch FTW?). I just need to find a cheap flight. I want to pay less than $200 to go from ATL to Las Vegas round trip. Is that doable?

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Finally ... 1K day

Date: Fri, May 30, 2008 Professional Internet

Day 4 was my first 1K day since going full-time. I was REALLY close the last few days but finally put together a couple of good sessions.

My hourly rate was $430.78/hr so this is now my new coaching rate. If you are still interested in coaching just PM me. I can do a special 5 session coaching deal for $2,000.

This was defnitely the hand of the day. I think pre-flop is a must-call once nowonda overcalls the 3-bet:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2689098

It was hillarious how Tsjerk berated me afterwards. He said "how can you call with 55 given all the people that have called already?" I wanted to say "you need to go to Cardrunners and learn about implied odds, friendo."

I also played this hand vs. Tsjerk. I debated putting forth a blocking bet on the river, but once he shoves I like folding. He was very loose (49/22/1.6) but his bet there usually is the goods. Basically my hand is a bluff-catcher.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2689115

Anyhow - feels good to get to to the grand. I'll take anything over $500/day. I also think that once I get over $1000 my motivation to play just plummets as I'm happy with the results. Today I just happened to catch a little heater at the end.

I'm not going to post many more hands as I think most of them are very standard. Hand of the day is just a fun thing for me to post though :)

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Some reflections through 4 days

Date: Fri, May 30, 2008 Professional Internet

It's insane how much I've learned about myself in relation to playing poker in these last 4 days of playing. Playing full time really puts things in perspective. I have no doubt that my poker growth will be exponential in the next couple of months. Here are a couple of things I've picked up:

• I need to keep my sessions under an hour an a half. My attention span goes down after that. This is one of the problems I've had with teaching on the block schedule, where classes are 1.5 hours.

• There are lots of donks at 100NL. The regs pretty much stay out of each other's way - why get in high variance situations when you don't have to? Here the standard for a regular is a 20/16 multi-tabler who is playing pretty straight forward.

• On the other hand, at 200NL, the aggression has been MUCH higher. People continue to get it in pretty light against me. This is why I think 200NL is more profitable as long as you don't get into dick swinging contests with them. Since everyone is playing aggro and getting it in light, I've been playing a 19/15/2 game and getting it in with a LOT of equity. I'm still very seldom folding QQ+ and AK, but some of the stuff I've been running into has been insane.

All that said, I have been booking in big wins in the morning and giving some of it back in the evening. I think I have been playing a c-type game in the evening and need to fix that. I'm not really concerned since I'm aware of the pattern and just need to fix it. Short sessions is one key to that.

Here is an interesting AK hand including a turn decision. Not sure why I don't have 100BB's - I really wish PS would install the auto top-off feature.

Stats:

bbuba is playing 37/27/0.64 over 55 hands. Early in the session he flopped a set and then bet small on turn and river on a very draw-heavy board.

wiredbullet is playing 55/36/inf over 11 hands. No real reads on him.

Seat 4: sightless21 ($121.15) -

Seat 5: Sauze17 ($96) -

Seat 6: wiredbullet ($93) -

PRE-FLOP:

Sauze17 posts small blind $0.50
wiredbullet posts BIG blind $1
Dealt To: TheXC


RAISE bbuba ($3)
FOLD vhjelvik
RAISE TheXC ($10)
FOLD sightless21
FOLD Sauze17
CALL wiredbullet ($9)
CALL bbuba ($7)

FLOP:

Pot: $30.5


CHECK wiredbullet
CHECK bbuba
CHECK TheXC

TURN:

Pot: $30.5


CHECK wiredbullet
CHECK bbuba

Turn Decision

So - I don't feel like the ace changed that much. If they have 66 then I just came out ahead. What's my plan here? I feel like if I had the Ks my hand becomes much easier to play.

I guess what I was thinking about was how much value there is to betting here. If I'm raised then I have to fold. If they have 66 with the 6s then I guess they have flush outs. There are all sorts of draws here.

Also, if I bet here (something like $22), I will have $45 on the river. If the river is a blank and someone shoves, am I pot-committed?

Anyhow - this was probably the most interesting decision I was faced with today. Let me know your thoughts.

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Day 2, goals.

Date: Wed, May 28, 2008 Professional Internet

My intention for the next year is to make $100,000 playing poker. I've broken it down to $500/day at around 20 days/month while working 10 months out of the year. That's the goal for now. Today I went on a heater at 200NL early and then came back and picked up two buy-ins at 100NL. I didn't want to play anymore 200NL after my early session - I just felt too good about that and didn't want to somehow drop two buy-ins and then feel crappy.

This is something I've discussed with my friends - quitting while you're doing well/ahead. When I've had a really good session it puts me in a really good mood and the EV of that is much higher than potentially getting a few more buy-ins. Life is more than poker and being in a good mood is always a plus.

This is the reason I dropped down to 100NL for my next session. I was happy with my 200NL results and wanted to decrease my variance. So I played 8 tables for an hour and life was good. Ran KK into AA twice though. Boooo.

Here is the hand of the day:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2678293

I felt like this was a good flop to check especially vs. two players and my gutter. The turn is gin even though I was hating life on the river initially.

So right now I'm running/playing well. I'm still making some calls in spots where I need to fold rivers but we all have leaks here and there.

On another note, I'm re-doing my video # 9 for a couple of reasons (a few repeat hands were in the last one) and it will include a few of the 200NL hands from my last few sessions. I hope to finish it up tonight.

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200NL, road to Supernova

Date: Tue, May 27, 2008 Professional Internet

So I started playing 200NL on Stars and it's been a bumpy road so far. I've had to make quite a few adjustments. A lot of people float both in and out of position and bluff-raise so I've been c-betting a lot less, cold-calling a lot more, and value betting a lot thinner. I've had a really swingy experience so far, but that's fine - I'm working out some kinks and am going to grind it well. This is the limit I'm planning on grinding for a while.

Today I played 2,893 hands and ended up winning $746.30 in my first true day of grinding. Here is the highlight of the session:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2672990

Feels good to take that one down. Other than that, today and tomorrow I'm going to be re-doing my suited-connector video since it included quite a few re-peat hands and I want to include some of the 200NL hands that I've played recently.

I'm also planning on trying to get the Supernova VIP status. Right now I'm at 13,957 VPP's for the year (just started playing on PS this month). I think it's very doable.

Also ... what's up with people 4-betting and getting it in light?

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2673095

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2673102

You won't really see that at 50NL and below ...

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Done with School/Work

Date: Fri, May 23, 2008 Professional Internet

Wow. Today was my last day at school - I turned in my laptop and key, cleaned my room, and headed out. I am not really sure what will happen over the next few months, but I do know that I'm very relieved to have finished up formal teaching for a while. It's been a huge stressor for me the last couple of months. I am actually not sure if I have the stamina needed to be a full time teacher.

Next year should be exciting. I am going to devote a lot of it to poker - both trying to become a better player and a better teacher of the game. I am also going to spend a lot of time thinking and writing about what it takes to win at the lower limits (25NL - 200NL). This is where I'm grinding right now and I hope to both get and share some insight that comes out of this. I think playing full timem will allow me to grow exponentially as a player the way I have not been able to do in the last few years.

I'm also happy that I'll be able to work out early in the morning (which I love to do) as well as start training for a marathon again - two things I had no time to do as a full-time teacher. I will also be able to spend more time with Katy and the dogs and take better care of the house.

So - I'm very happy and very excited about the status of my life right now as well as the things to come.

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Vacuum Play

Date: Thu, May 22, 2008 Professional Internet

There are two hands that I played today which were vacuum plays - hands where we had less than 8 hands on the villain and thus no reads. In both cases after 8 hands, the villain seemed pretty tight.

The first one came during a coaching session at 50NL on the iPoker network (yea Canada!). We raise AA in early position and get flatted by the cut-off. The flop comes 9s 7s 6d. We bet and get raised.

This is such a crappy spot. Usually, my whole decision in this situation is based on my read of my opponent. Without a read, this is a board where we are either way ahead or facing with quite a bit of equity while being OOP for the next two streets. So what do you do? Call and hope the turn is a blank and you can check it down? It's just a bad spot.

Later on I was playing some 200NL. Again - I had 8 hands on the villain and he's playing 14/12. This means nothing over a short sample size. Here is how the hand goes down:

Seat 1: XtraAces11 ($668.95) -
Seat 2: TheXC ($207) -
Seat 3: RiverStars68 ($226.45)
Seat 4: mj9779 ($292.50)
Seat 5: SurfJunkyBC ($122)
Seat 6: billyk_38119 ($199) -

PRE-FLOP:

XtraAces11 posts small blind $1
TheXC posts BIG blind $2
Dealt To: TheXC


FOLD RiverStars68
FOLD mj9779
FOLD SurfJunkyBC
RAISE billyk_38119($6)
FOLD XtraAces11
RAISE TheXC($22)
RAISE billyk_38119($50)

At this point, the only things which I can consider are:

• He seems tight, but ...
• This is 200NL where people are generally more aggro - both out of position and in position. 3-betting is a lot more liberal.
• His raise is a button raise and thus I probably am not going to give him much respect and will 3-bet him light.
• I have the 4th best hand possible.
• His 4-bet size does not commit him.

He does put me to a decision for my stack though cause flatting here is pretty horrible. So ... I think it's a shove or fold. I think at this point, the higher you go in limits the more of a shove this is in a vacuum environment and the lower you go the closer it's to a fold. That was my thought ...

Let me know what you think of both situations.

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I just made an awesome video for CR ...

Date: Sun, May 18, 2008 Professional Internet

I'm uploading Verneer # 9 on the server as we speak. It's pretty epic. First of all, the whole thing is devoted to playing suited connectors and one-gappers - an area where a lot of people had a lot of questions. Secondly, I think you're going to like the format. It's a mixture of power-point slides, replay videos, poker-stove work, and even quiz questions.

Here is a preview:

Be on the lookout for it in the next couple of weeks!

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Stake me for 200NL

Date: Sat, May 17, 2008 Professional Internet

My 50NL on FTP and 100NL on Stars results:

And the graph so far:

Stake me for the next level!

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Another finance question ...

Date: Wed, May 14, 2008 Professional Internet

Since I've gotten really good advice so far on financial matters from people that read this blog, I would like to get more advice.

I have around $110,000 left on my house mortgage. I took out a 15 year loan at 5.25% interest and just finished my 3rd year living there. I will probably live there at least 2 1/2 more years. My current payment is $1090.06 which as of now is broken down $496.16 interest and $593.90 principal. The principal goes up by $2.60 and the interest goes down by $2.60 every month.

So currently my interest is 45% of my mortgage payment. What effect on my principal/interest ratio and rate of growth would a lump payment of $10,000 have? What about an additional $1,000/month? How would I begin to figure such things out?

I guess I'm trying to figure out how good of an investment paying off my mortgage early would be.

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