World Series of Poker: The Remaining Schedule
Date: Sat, Jul 12, 2008
After a somewhat abrupt suspension of play last night at 189 players, the Main Event of the World Series should play out something like this over the next three days:
Thursday Day 3: 1308 played down to 474
Friday Day 4: 474 played down to 189
Saturday Day 5: 189 playing to 81 or 72 (or less)
Sunday Day 6: 81 or 72 playing down to 27
Monday Day 7: 27 playing down to November Nine
November: Final Table
Today is the critical day, with a full five levels scheduled the field will definitely go under 100. Trying to anticipate the pace of play is a skill developed by good tournament directors but about as accurate as predicting the weather (we had lightening last night in Las Vegas; 90 degrees at midnight and lightening). The key to today's decision is a balance between the number of remaining players and the stack sizes. When the field is full of stacks of similar sizes, play takes longer; when there are a good number of short stacks, play is quicker.
Because the staff has the option of stopping play at any time, we know they definitely want to make tomorrow (Day Six) a reasonable length day getting down to 27 but even with this in mind, no one would be surprised if a fast pace lowers todays field to 63 or even 54 and then on Sunday we go for a final two tables at 18.
This is all about managing the pace of an unpredictable game at ten or twenty different tables. What we do know is that Monday evening or early Tuesday morning, we will have nine players left standing.
World Series of Poker: Survivor's Prayer List
Date: Fri, Jul 11, 2008
Let's be honest, there are WSOP officials on their knees every morning praying that at least one BIG name player makes it to the November final table. Nevermind what they say in public, ESPN programmers are burning incense and killing chickens hoping that someone everyone knows makes it to the final nine.
I heard a veteran poker writer say the other day that if a big name pro gets as close as Scotty Nguyen did last year, they would drag him away from the table so he can't donk off his chips and miss the monster TV event.
So who is still around to fulfill this fantasy?
Dag Martin Mikkelsen 931000
Alexander Kostritsyn 887000
Matt Matros 822500
Jon Turner 726500
Shawn Sheikhan 724000
Brandon Cantu 710000
Jeff Kimber 632500
Phil Hellmuth 475000
Victor Ramdin 471000
Mark Vos 468000
Hoyt Corkins 439500
Mike Matusow 438500
World Series of Poker: Top Ten on Day 3
Date: Thu, Jul 10, 2008
Some of the early conversations today were about how one player had a 2-to-1 chiplead on the entire field. Brian Schaedlich begins play with 801,000, which is not a 2-1 lead since the counts are all in from yesterday, he did hold a 2-to-1 lead on the Day 2A field. I thought it might be interesting to track our top ten for the entire day. I will try to catch them three times during the day to see just how much a chip lead means on Day Three of the WSOP Main Event.
Here are the top ten starting stacks at noon with 1,307 players remaining:
Brian Schaedlich 801,000
Peter Biebel 531,000
Alex Outhred 486,800
Raja Kattamuri 411,100
Hunter Frey 397,000
Jeremiah Smith 386,000
Steven Goosen 362,100
Patrick Fortin 355,900
Reagan Silber 355,500
Kellen Hunter 354,100
At 5 PM, two levels in, the original top ten now with 852 players still in the field:
Brian Schaedlich 398,000 (801,000 starting stack) down by half
Peter Biebel 290,000 (531,000) down
Alex Outhred 465,000 (486,800) slightly down
Raja Kattamuri 450,000 (411,100) up
Hunter Frey 295,000 (397,000) down
Jeremiah Smith 601,500 (386,000) way up
Steven Goosen 240,000 (362,100) down
Patrick Fortin 520,000 (355,900) way up
Reagan Silber 332,000 (355,500) slightly down
Kellen Hunter 385,000 (354,100) slightly up
Three levels gone, we are at the dinner break with 733 players still at the tables; only one of our top ten remains in the top ten of current chip leaders. Let's see where our top ten from three levels ago are now:
Brian Schaedlich 282,000 (down 519K on the day)
Peter Biebel 336,000 (down 195K)
Alex Outhred 275,000 (down 212K)
Raja Kattamuri 450,000 (up 39K)
Hunter Frey 168,000 (down 229K)
Jeremiah Smith 766,00 (up 380K) Tournament Chipleader
Steven Goosen 115,000 (down 247K)
Patrick Fortin 450,000 (up 94K)
Reagan Silber 263,000 (down 91K)
Kellen Hunter 480,000 (up 126K)
World Series of Poker: Playing Down to Nine 2008 vs. 2007
Date: Thu, Jul 10, 2008
When the Main Event resumes today for Day 3, there will be 1308 players left standing. Lots of reports expressed surprise at the pace of both Day 2's. But compared to 2007, we still have a long way to go.
Here is how '07 played down:
Day 3: 797 played down to 337
Day 4: 337 played down to 112
Day 5: 112 played to 36
Day 6: 36 played down to 9
Day 0: Day Off
Day 7: Final Table
Those who were here last July remember some very late nights on Days 4, 5 & 6. But the schedulers have noted that problem and added one full day to the 2008 Final (Summer) Week.
Thursday Day 3: 1308 playing down to xxx
Friday Day 4: xxx playing down to yyy
Saturday Day 5: yyy playing to zz or zzz
Sunday Day 6: zz or zzz playing down to 36
Monday Day 7: 36 playing down to November Nine
November: Final Table
The Plan remains in place to play five 2 hour levels each day or less as needed to reach the final table. As of now only Day Six or Seven seem in any jeopardy of needing extended time, which is normal for any large field tournament.
World Series of Poker: Heard at the Tables
Date: Wed, Jul 9, 2008
Here are some of the words of wisdom I have overheard at the tables during the '08 World Series of Poker.
"Man I took those after my back surgery, how do you stay awake at the table?" "Who said I stay awake, this is only poker."
You get to meet so many different people at the Series:
"They have broken my table four times today; its not that I mind moving but you guys are nowhere near as cute as my last table."
In the different strokes for different folks category:
"I don't want to win the free massage, my wife would never understand."
"What does your wife do?"
"She dances in the Folies at the Tropicana."
The next four were all sung badly by two players at a 7 Stud table:
"Momma don't let your babies grow up to be cowboys."
"Momma don't let your babies grow up to be poker players."
"Momma don't let your babies grow up to be dealers."
"Momma don't let your babies grow up to be President."
Player busting out late on Day 2B:
"I woulda made money in any other event."
In fact he outlasted 4500+ players, which would have easily won every WSOP tournament, except of course, the Main Event.
At the World Series of Poker, you get to play against all those great professionals you see on television:
"I like Annie Duke on those days when she is Howard Lederer's sister but sometimes she acts like Phil Hellmuth is her brother."
This is my favorite, a guy with a good read but no follow thru.
"I hate it when I'm drawing dead . . . . how much did you bet?"
And finally, what we have all come to know as The Moneymaker Dream:
"If Jerry Yang can win this thing then so can I!"
World Series of Poker: Day Two Math
Date: Tue, Jul 8, 2008
I had several interesting conversations in the last 24 hours about the math involving entrants on the Day 2's of the Series. Surprisingly there is a wide range of opinions about these numbers.
The basic formula we are talking about is this:
Day 1A survivors + Day 1B survivors = Day 2A combined field
Day 1C survivors + Day 1D survivors = Day 2B combined field
Which works out in actual numbers to this:
636 + 614 = 1,250
1026 + 1352 = 2,378
This all comes about because the starting fields for Days 1A & 1B were much smaller than for Days 1C & 1D.
The question is: Are players at any disadvantage starting their Day 2 with a field of 1,250 or 2,378 and if so, why?
What surprised me is that some of the same "mathematical" reasoning goes into arguments that either of the two fields gives some hidden and unfair advantage to the players in that flight. Here are a few of the "facts" I have heard:
-with more players (2B) there are more chips in play and clearly more chances of accumulating them;
-fewer players (2A) means big stacks are more likely to be seated together, making the potential for super stacks more possible;
-there will be more big stacks in the bigger field (2B);
-there will be more short stacks to go after in the bigger field (2B).
Well let's toss out some actual facts here. There are almost exactly the same number of players over 100K in both fields by percentage of remaining players. Yes, there are more in the bigger field but 63 out of 2,378 is not an advantage over 34 out of 1,250 in the smaller field. That's 2.6% and 2.7% over 100,000 in each field.
Average chip stack is also nearly the same in both fields. There are more short stacks in the big field but again not out of line when you look at percentage of the field. So the question is: Are you more likely to run into a big stack if you are also big or a table of short stacks to feast on? Again the percentages are nearly identical.
The only real factor of concern would be if either Day 2 had any chance of approaching the "in the money" magic number of 666 in the total field. And while Day 2A (1,250 runners) may well reach 666, there is no way both fields can reach a combined 666; not even close. In all likelihood, we will reach Day 3 with 1700+ players remaining.
So the Day Two math = an interesting thought problem with a mundane answer: There is no advantage to either field.
World Series of Poker: Circuit Schedule 2008-2009
Date: Tue, Jul 8, 2008
The World Series of Poker Circuit schedule has been released for the 2008-2009 season. Slightly reduced from 12 to 10 stops the Circuit will begin in October of this year at Caesars Indiana. Last year there were two stops in New Orleans, Tunica and at Caesars Indiana; these have all been reduced to one stop only and a new event has been added for Harrah's Hammond.
Here is the new schedule:
2008-09 WORLD SERIES OF POKER CIRCUIT SCHEDULE
October 2 -- October 14, 2008
CAESARS INDIANA
October 24 -- November 2, 2008
HORSESHOE HAMMOND (Chicago area)
November 6 -- November 16, 2008
HARVEYS LAKE TAHOE (Nevada)
December 5 – December 18, 2008
HARRAH’S ATLANTIC CITY
January 20 – February 9, 2009
HARRAH’S TUNICA (Mississippi)
February 12 – February 25, 2009
HORSESHOE COUNCIL BLUFFS (Iowa)
March 4 – March 14, 2009
CAESARS ATLANTIC CITY
March 19 – March 29, 2009
HARRAH’S RINCON (San Diego)
April 12 – April 29, 2009
CAESARS PALACE (Las Vegas)
May 8 – May 20, 2009
HARRAH’S NEW ORLEANS