Year of the Professionals at the World Series of Poker?

Date: Thu, Jun 5, 2008

Quick somebody has to be the first to say it: "The name professionals are claiming (reclaiming?) the World Series of Poker, at least through the first eight event."

It's hard to argue with that assessment on the day after David Singer and Erick Lindgren took down bracelets. But if we look a bit deeper, I think we will see even more evidence of the professionals beginning to dominate the 2008 World Series. Erick took down the $5,000 Mixed Hold'em event and yes the bigger buy-ins attract more big name professionals but you can't lower the value of a bracelet just because it costs more to enter the event.

Erick was joined at the final table by Justin Bonomo (2nd), Roland de Wolfe (4th) Howard Lederer (6th), David Williams (7th), Isaac Haxton (9th)and by several less-than-household names, who are still clearly professional players. Andrew Robl (3rd), who is only an "unknown" because of his age and David Rheem (5th), who has four years of solid poker cashes behind his name.

David Singer won his bracelet in the $1,500 Pot Limit Hold'em event over Jacobo Fernandez, who final tabled at the LAPC last year and is accumulating a nice string of cashes for his poker resume.

The monster $1,500 NLHE event #2 that drew nearly 4,000 players was won by an amateur: Grant Hinkle but both Chris Ferguson and Theo Tran made that final table in an event that many professionals chose not to enter.

The opening event for the 2008 Series was a $10,000 Pot Limit Hold'em tournament. This first final table had one very new player and one outstanding newcomer, Amit Makhija. Other than that, you might recognize the rest of the field: Nenad Medic (1st), Andy Bloch (2nd), Kathy Liebert (3rd), Mike Seton 4th, Chris Bell 6th, Patrik Antonius 7th, Phil Laak 9th.

When talking about "professionals" there are several levels of recognition. Certainly professionals blessed by the poker television gods will be known to most readers of this blog. But when we get down near a final table at the WSOP, the call on media row goes out: "OK, who knows this guy?" It usually takes only a moment to find someone who saw the player in Barcelona or knows all the local Vegas pros. Event #5 is an example of this; down to the final nine, here is the line-up.

Michael Binger: tied the record (8) for most WSOP cashes in a single year and perhaps the only "name" professional at this final table.
Michael Banducci: four 2007 WSOP cashes, three 2006 WSOP cashes.
Jonathon Aguiar: local Las Vegas professional.
Jeff Williams: just a kid, with the 2008 EPT Monte Carlo championship and a million dollars in his pocket.
Alan Jaffrey: three 2007 WSOP cashes.
Peter Gould: a long list of major tournament places, including 3 at the WSOP.
Lyric Duveyoung: this will be his second cash at the 2008 Series.

Oh and looking ahead. Theo Tran is the chip leader after day one of Event #7 and last year's WSOP Player of the Year Tom Schneider leads event #8 followed closely by Gus Hansen.

Not even a week into the World Series it is too early to say this is the year of the pros. But strong early signs certainly make it something to speculate about.

World Series of Poker 2008: Mixed Championship Questions (Updated)

Date: Wed, Jun 4, 2008

Well they got through the record breaking 3,929 players in Event #2 with a couple of very long nights and I think they learned their lesson that a "four day event" with two day ones is really just a three day event with a very nasty, long day two.

Today is the brand new $10,000 Mixed Game Championship. Eight different poker games in one event. A really interesting event they have created here. But there is (was?) a big problem with the structure. [see late ADDENDUM below]

The games are:

1) Deuce-to-seven triple draw;
2) Fixed-limit hold'em;
3) Omaha-8 (hi/lo split);
4) Razz;
5) Seven-card stud;
6) Seven-card stud (hi/lo split, 8 or better);
7) No-limit hold'em;
8) Pot-limit Omaha.

This is the structure:

Tables are eight handed. Each level is one hour. The games changes every eight hands BUT they also change based on the clock. In the first twenty minutes of each round, games 1, 2, 3 are rotated. In the second twenty minutes, games 4, 5, 6 rotate every eight hands; the last twenty minutes of each hour, games 7 & 8 are played.

Here is (was) the problem. Both Hi/Lo games are (were) going to be shorted hands. With only twenty minutes to play three games (24 hands) they simply are not going to get full rounds of either Omaha 8 (game 3) or Stud 8 (game 6). In fact, at some tables they would not even get to games 3 or 6 in rounds slowed by a couple of action hands in the early games.

Players are (did?) going to complain but once the event has begun, it is difficult to change the structure sheet. They should just play eight hands of each game and use the clock to change the blinds, antes and bring-ins but not the games.

ADDENDUM: The published (currently published) structure sheet for this event does not have the 20 minute per set limit as originally stated. The games are being played 8 hands each and the time clock adjusts the blinds and antes during whichever round the tables are on. This means that tables will be playing different games at different times as the event progresses, which is why other mixed games, like H.O.R.S.E. are played by the clock and not by the number of hands and perhaps why this event was structured differently at some point. Congratulations to the WSOP staff for making this modification.

One question: When there are redraws for seats will all tables restart at the beginning of the structure sheet with game one? And if so, what happens to the clock?

Rethinking the "November Nine"

Date: Tue, Jun 3, 2008

No, I am not rethinking my position on moving the WSOP main event final table to November. I am for it, I have been for it since the first rumors last fall, I remain steadfast in the belief that this is a well thought out move to attract more fans to the Series and to insure continuing television coverage.

What I am hearing from players, both professional and otherwise, is that they are coming around to favor the "November Nine" idea. I certainly understand the initial reaction to such a big change. Lots of folks truly love this game and do not like it changing. I, myself, am not a traditionalist but for a truly moving statement about that aspect of the game, might I recommend an article by Amy Calistri.

As weeks have past and the whole idea has had time to be pondered and debated, more and more players are seeing the rationale for the move. Poker needs a boost and this just might do it. At nearly every table, this move comes up, more and more we hear positive remarks and a good deal of a 'wait and see' attitude. If it doesn't work then they just change it back next year. But it is worth the attempt and I applaud the WSOP staff for moving forward with this; just as I like to acknowledge them for making the summer of 2008 the year of "no tents at the Series". After all, not every experiment works.

I am not so fond of the label: "November Nine". It's just flat and doesn't evoke much. Now if they had asked me for a suggestion, need I point out who came up with Sequestrium last summer? I would have gone for: "The Fall Final". Emphasizes the event not the players and sounds just a bit like The Fall Classic.

World Series of Poker 2008: The Longest Day

Date: Mon, Jun 2, 2008

New WSOP guidelines state that no event will go longer than 14 hours in any one day. Noon events are to end by 2 AM and Day Two restarts, usually at 2 PM should end by 4 AM. Well today will test that "guideline". Event #2 the record-setting (3,929) $1,500 NLHE comes back today with a combined field of 447 players, which in theory will play down to a final table of nine.

In all likelihood that will not happen today and the survivors will come back tomorrow a couple of hours early to play down to the final nine. The crunch will come after midnight tonight when tournament officials will have to look at the remaining field and somehow balance the need to shrink the field without making the players play all night.

This problem is inherent in events with multiple Day Ones. Tournament officials had to stop Day 1A early because they could not afford to have the money bubble burst on Day 1A, actually they had to estimate what the money bubble would be since Day 1B registrations were still open. They did a good job here. A total of 378 places will be paid and they are bringing back 447 players. Day 1A produced 225 players from a field of 2048 and Day 1B saw 223 players make it through from a smaller starting group of 1881.

That is actually cutting it a little close (447/378) but it just shows how the WSOP Tournament Director's staff really do know how to run the biggest events in the poker world. Nicely done, Ladies and Gentlemen.

Thinking About the State of Poker

Date: Sun, Jun 1, 2008

It would seem that the good Dr. Pauly and I have been meandering down similar paths regarding how WSOP 2008 will confirm the current state of poker. Fortunately, both Dr. Pauly and the Poker Shrink have Series gigs this year that do not require us to do live tournament reporting. We both bow twice to those intrepid poker writers, bloggers, runners and gunners who are covering the action day to day and hand for hand and we wish them well.

The two doctors are free this summer to explore the deeper and at times darker sides of poker. Together we seem to have come to some of the same conclusions, let me advise those who wish to debate me on the condition of poker in American and around the globe to read what I have to say and then take a look at Dr. Pauly's commentary. We are not here as cheerleaders for poker in general nor the WSOP in specific. It is our job to give you our view from collective years of experience on the poker roads around the world. As I said yesterday, in my opinion, this is the watershed year for poker. Dr. Pauly and I are going to give you what we see happening in Las Vegas this summer as it affects the big picture of poker.

For instance, you find a lot of professional poker players with very divergent views on how poker is fairing these days. The two main camps can be described as:

"The End is Near"
or
"Everything is Fine"

Let me be clear, I do not think the End is Near, however, I do see strong indications that the World Series of 2008 may well be the Last Hurrah of the Poker Boom. I firmly believe numbers will begin to decline as we work our way through the full WSOP schedule and never again will be see a main event as big as 2005-2008. Big tournament poker has jumped the shark, I am only suggesting that everyone involved buy an appropriately sized umbrella.

The players, professional and amateur, who are unwilling to hear this news are not ostriches. They are poker players. However, the professionals I talk to are more than just players, they are in the business of poker and as such must pay attention to the economy of poker.

There is a perfect poker analogy to this economic situation. At the tables, I always marvel at the detail of recall most major professionals have. What they see and remember about poker hands is absolutely phenomenal. I watch the same hands at the same tables and I have a notepad to record anything I see or hear; yet, inevitably when we talk about hands later, they saw more and recall more.

However, away from the tables those laser like observational skills are not always transferable to other aspects of their lives or even to other aspects of poker. I have listened to Daniel Negreanu and Mike Matusow talk about details of the WSOP final table move. Phil Hellmuth has described the marketing issues around publishing poker books. Gavin Smith and Bill Edler have clearly summarized the financial effects of television on poker and speculated on poker after television. These guys pay attention to the whole world of poker. On the other side of the coin, I have had conversations with players who had no idea which tournaments were being taped for television and no concept of why endorsements were or were not given to certain players.

Just because someone can play poker does not mean they understand the financial world of poker away from the tables. Some players are just whistling past the graveyard, hoping for the best and playing their cards. To be a pro at the tables, you play the players not the cards. To be a poker professional away from the tables, you must engage in the business of poker.

I treasure the summer in Las Vegas because they are all here to be asked the same battery of questions. The Poker Shrink will take the pulse of those who play the game both at the table and away from it. I'll keep you informed of what I find and so will Dr. Pauly. The Doctors are in the house.

World Series of Poker 2008: A Watershed Moment

Date: Sun, Jun 1, 2008

The 2008 World Series of Poker is off to a great start but when we look back in a few years I predict this will be the year everyone remembers. Already several professionals have told me that they expect this year to be: "the last big year for poker." Why? Well there a number of reasons.

First and foremost, the World Series of Poker is still an American phenomenon. Sure 87 countries were represented at the 2007 WSOP but 95% of the players over the seven weeks of the Series come from the U.S. Right now the U.S. economy is having some hard times. Gas prices are high, prices are up and the dollar is down. This may well be the perfect storm for poker.

Next, the television contacts that have fueled the poker boom are in jeopardy. The WSOP move of the main event final table to November is about ratings on ESPN. If that doesn't work, the decline will be confirmed. In fact, we may know before November just how strong the Series is performing just by watching the registration numbers.

There are other factors. The UIGEA in the States, the continuing trade squabbles among the EU nations, the restricted access to online gaming throughout the Far East, but the highlight of any poker year remains the World Series of Poker. There is no tournament that compares. We may never go back to main events under 1,000 players but the days of 6,000, 7,000, 8,000; those may be gone forever or at least we are on the verge of the Poker Eclipse of 2008.

The summer of 2008 will be long remember as the watershed year of the poker boom. Stay tuned, I will update you on this theme throughout the summer with the numbers and the comments from both players and other insiders who will be living and playing at the Rio for the next seven weeks.

World Series of Poker 2008: A Watershed Moment

Date: Sun, Jun 1, 2008

The 2008 World Series of Poker is off to a great start but when we look back in a few years I predict this will be the year everyone remembers. Already several professionals have told me that they expect this year to be: "the last big year for poker." Why? Well there a number of reasons.

First and foremost, the World Series of Poker is still an American phenomenon. Sure 87 countries were represented at the 2007 WSOP but 95% of the players over the seven weeks of the Series come from the U.S. Right now the U.S. economy is having some hard times. Gas prices are high, prices are up and the dollar is down. This may well be the perfect storm for poker.

Next, the television contacts that have fueled the poker boom are in jeopardy. The WSOP move of the main event final table to November is about ratings on ESPN. If that doesn't work, the decline will be confirmed. In fact, we may know before November just how strong the Series is performing just by watching the registration numbers.

There are other factors. The UIGEA in the States, the continuing trade squabbles among the EU nations, the restricted access to online gaming throughout the Far East, but the highlight of any poker year remains the World Series of Poker. There is no tournament that compares. We may never go back to main events under 1,000 players but the days of 6,000, 7,000, 8,000; those may be gone forever or at least we are on the verge of the Poker Eclipse of 2008.

The summer of 2008 will be long remember as the watershed year of the poker boom. Stay tuned, I will update you on this theme throughout the summer with the numbers and the comments from both players and other insiders who will be living and playing at the Rio for the next seven weeks.