World Series of Poker: Day Two Math
Date: Tue, Jul 8, 2008
I had several interesting conversations in the last 24 hours about the math involving entrants on the Day 2's of the Series. Surprisingly there is a wide range of opinions about these numbers.
The basic formula we are talking about is this:
Day 1A survivors + Day 1B survivors = Day 2A combined field
Day 1C survivors + Day 1D survivors = Day 2B combined field
Which works out in actual numbers to this:
636 + 614 = 1,250
1026 + 1352 = 2,378
This all comes about because the starting fields for Days 1A & 1B were much smaller than for Days 1C & 1D.
The question is: Are players at any disadvantage starting their Day 2 with a field of 1,250 or 2,378 and if so, why?
What surprised me is that some of the same "mathematical" reasoning goes into arguments that either of the two fields gives some hidden and unfair advantage to the players in that flight. Here are a few of the "facts" I have heard:
-with more players (2B) there are more chips in play and clearly more chances of accumulating them;
-fewer players (2A) means big stacks are more likely to be seated together, making the potential for super stacks more possible;
-there will be more big stacks in the bigger field (2B);
-there will be more short stacks to go after in the bigger field (2B).
Well let's toss out some actual facts here. There are almost exactly the same number of players over 100K in both fields by percentage of remaining players. Yes, there are more in the bigger field but 63 out of 2,378 is not an advantage over 34 out of 1,250 in the smaller field. That's 2.6% and 2.7% over 100,000 in each field.
Average chip stack is also nearly the same in both fields. There are more short stacks in the big field but again not out of line when you look at percentage of the field. So the question is: Are you more likely to run into a big stack if you are also big or a table of short stacks to feast on? Again the percentages are nearly identical.
The only real factor of concern would be if either Day 2 had any chance of approaching the "in the money" magic number of 666 in the total field. And while Day 2A (1,250 runners) may well reach 666, there is no way both fields can reach a combined 666; not even close. In all likelihood, we will reach Day 3 with 1700+ players remaining.
So the Day Two math = an interesting thought problem with a mundane answer: There is no advantage to either field.
World Series of Poker: Circuit Schedule 2008-2009
Date: Tue, Jul 8, 2008
The World Series of Poker Circuit schedule has been released for the 2008-2009 season. Slightly reduced from 12 to 10 stops the Circuit will begin in October of this year at Caesars Indiana. Last year there were two stops in New Orleans, Tunica and at Caesars Indiana; these have all been reduced to one stop only and a new event has been added for Harrah's Hammond.
Here is the new schedule:
2008-09 WORLD SERIES OF POKER CIRCUIT SCHEDULE
October 2 -- October 14, 2008
CAESARS INDIANA
October 24 -- November 2, 2008
HORSESHOE HAMMOND (Chicago area)
November 6 -- November 16, 2008
HARVEYS LAKE TAHOE (Nevada)
December 5 – December 18, 2008
HARRAH’S ATLANTIC CITY
January 20 – February 9, 2009
HARRAH’S TUNICA (Mississippi)
February 12 – February 25, 2009
HORSESHOE COUNCIL BLUFFS (Iowa)
March 4 – March 14, 2009
CAESARS ATLANTIC CITY
March 19 – March 29, 2009
HARRAH’S RINCON (San Diego)
April 12 – April 29, 2009
CAESARS PALACE (Las Vegas)
May 8 – May 20, 2009
HARRAH’S NEW ORLEANS
World Series of Poker: Off Day/Day Off
Date: Mon, Jul 7, 2008
As I mentioned yesterday, this is the official Day Off for the 2008 Main Event. There is a $500 Casino Employees event and a Charity Media Tournament but the only real high or low-lite will be the WSOP News Conference, if anything comes out of that lovefest, we will report details later; otherwise--see you tomorrow for Day 2A of [qoute] The Greatest Tournament in the World brought to you by Miller's Best Lite [end quote].
World Series of Poker: Day 1A, 1B, 1C & 1D: 2008 vs. 2007
Date: Sun, Jul 6, 2008
With a big finish on Day 1D, the 2008 World Series of Poker Main Event has reached an official total of 2,471 entrants, which makes this the second largest poker tournament ever.
2006 WSOP Main Event: 8,773 entrants
2008 WSOP Main Event: 6,844 entrants
2007 WSOP Main Event: 6,358 entrants
2005 WSOP Main Event: 5,619 entrants
2004 WSOP Main Event: 2,576 entrants
TODAY: 2008 Day 1D: 2,461 entrants
2007 Day 1D: 1783 entrants
2008 Main Event Day 1C: 1928 entrants [4,383 three day total]
2007 Main Event Day 1C: 1743 entrants [4,575]
2008 Main Event Day 1B: 1158 entrants [2455 two day total]
2007 Main Event Day 1B: 1545 entrants [2832]
2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants
World Series of Poker: Day 1D Observations
Date: Sun, Jul 6, 2008
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World Series of Poker: Day 1A, 1B & 1C: 2008 vs. 2007
Date: Sat, Jul 5, 2008
As expected Day 1C was a much bigger field than either 1A or 1B. Estimates for tomorrow's Day 1D are all over the board with many predictions of over 2,000*. To match last year's Main Event total the magic number is 1,985*.
Lots of name professionals are playing tomorrow and plenty of other players are coming in after spending the Fourth of July with family and friends. So, "close" will be the operational word tomorrow for all of those over/under wagers* on the total runners in the 2008 World Series of Poker Main Event.
TODAY: 2008 Main Event Day 1C: 1928 entrants [4,373 three day total]
2007 Main Event Day 1C: 1743 entrants [4,575]
2008 Main Event Day 1B: 1158 entrants [2455 two day total]
2007 Main Event Day 1B: 1545 entrants [2832]
2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants
2008 Day 1D: Sunday?*
2007 Day 1D: 1783 entrants
*Late/Early reports or Early/Late reports are that the field for Sunday is over 2200 and counting.
World Series of Poker: Day 1C Observations
Date: Sat, Jul 5, 2008
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World Series of Poker: Day 1A & 1B: 2008 vs. 2007
Date: Fri, Jul 4, 2008
This year Day 1B was smaller than Day 1A, unlike 2007 when the field grew each successive day. But we still have two big fields to count on Days 1C & 1D.
In 2007 the final two days had much bigger fields and that is anticipated again this year; some early registration numbers indicate Saturday and Sunday will be much larger.
2008 Main Event Day 1B: 1158 entrants [2455]
2007 Main Event Day 1B: 1545 entrants [2832 two day total]
2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants
2008 Day 1C: Saturday?
2007 Day 1C: 1743 entrants
2008 Day 1D: Sunday?
2007 Day 1D: 1783 entrants
World Series of Poker: Day 1B Observations
Date: Fri, Jul 4, 2008
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World Series of Poker: Day 1A: 2008 vs. 2007
Date: Thu, Jul 3, 2008
A lot of people seemed surprised that today (Day 1A) "only" had as many entrants as last year. Seems like a pretty good number for a Thursday and one full table ahead of last year.
2008 Main Event Day 1A: 1297 entrants
2007 Main Event Day 1A: 1287 entrants
World Series of Poker: Day 1A Observations
Date: Thu, Jul 3, 2008
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World Series of Poker: and Now It Begins
Date: Wed, Jul 2, 2008
The beginning of the beginning of the end....
Fifty-One bracelets have been handed out; two more are ready to be presented today; the Player of the Year has been determined, congratulations to Erick Lindgren; the Ante Up for Africa event goes off today. Then, finally, we get to the Main Event and we answer most of the questions everyone has waited for.
Will we have more entries than last year?
Will the professionals somehow continue their dominance they have shown thru 53 preliminary events?
Will it all run as smooth as the tournaments have run so far? By the way, nice job to the WSOP staff this was truly a nicely run Series so far. Minor mistakes, quick fixes and overall solid and uniform floor decisions. Kudos to Tournament Director Jack Effel and his WSOP floor staff.
Another great move comes later this week, when the WSOP Media event is brought back with substantial prizes given to the favorite charities of the final table participants. A great solution to that on again off again event.
Then tomorrow we reach the 2008 World Series of Poker $10,000 No Limit Hold'em Main Event. Four Day One flights, two Day Two flights and five more days to play down to the "November Nine" or the "Fall Final". Then all the WSOP eggs go into that ESPN/November basket and we all wait, watch, hope and pray. No matter who you favor in that mass of poker humanity, say a little prayer that at least one or two "names" make it to the final nine. Nothing could be better for poker than to see Scotty, Mike, Phil, Phil, Erick, Jennifer, Antonio, Gus, Daniel, Joe, Johnny** or heaven help us Doyle! make the final table.
It all starts tomorrow.
**Dewey, Cyndy, Bill, Gavin, Carlos, Chris, Doug, Liz, David, Tony, Lyle, Barry, Berry, Huck, Patrik, David, the other Phil and the other Phil, Greg, Layne, Chad, Isabelle, Todd, Freddy, T.J., Michael, Mike again, Ted, Gabe, Andy, Howard, John, John, John or John, Lee, Annie, Eli, Hoyt, Andy or even Jerry.
World Series of Poker: Week Five Comparison
Date: Tue, Jul 1, 2008
A short week five to compare as we are now on the threshold of the Main Event. Fifty-three events are in the books or about to be and here are the numbers:
53 Preliminary Events:
25 events had increased entries
15 events had decreased entries
12 events were new tournaments or increased buy-ins
1 tie
Here are the week four comparisons:
2008 Event #48
$2,000 No Limit Hold'em
Number of Entrants: 2,319
2007 Entries: 2,038
(Big increase)
2008 Event #49
$1,500 No Limit Hold'em
Number of Entrants: 2,718
2007 Entries: 3,151
(down over 400 from the old record, but the event was capped so it had no chance of hitting 3,000)
2008 Event #50
$10,000 Pot Limit Omaha
Number of Entrants: 381
2007 Entries: 314
(a strong increase for a $10K event)
2008 Event #51
$1,500 H.O.R.S.E.
Number of Entrants: 803
2007 Entries: 730
(this was a $1,000 S.H.O.E. event last summer)
2008 Event #52
$1,500 No Limit Hold'em
Number of Entrants: 2,693
2007 Entries: new event
(an added 7th $1,500 NLHE event)
2008 Event #53
$1,500 Limit Hold'em Shootout
Number of Entrants: 823
2007 Entries: capped at 720
(the cap was raised this year, so we’ll call this an “other”)
Next, I will be watching the four Day Ones of the Main Event to see where those numbers go.
Week Four Comparison
Week Three Comparison
Week Two Comparison
Week One Comparison
World Series of Poker: the Scotty Nguyen Syndrome
Date: Mon, Jun 30, 2008
First and foremost, congratulations to Scotty Nguyen for taking down the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. and being the first player to hold the Chip Reese trophy. Scotty has an amazing track record over nearly 20 years of playing poker. His record, of course, includes the 1998 World Series of Poker main event championship and tournament earnings approaching Ten Million Dollars. Now Scotty adds to his legend, taking down the most prestigious tournament in professional poker.
But like so many great careers there is a dark side to Scotty's, one episode of which took place last summer at the 2007 WSOP main event. With twelve players remaining in the hunt for the final table nine, Scotty Nguyen was the chipleader and, as we all know, he did not make the final table. That crash and burn troubled Scotty for many months and will probably never be forgotten in poker lore.
Fast forward to this summer, the very next World Series of Poker main event and add to the mixture: the delayed final table. Combine these two events and I offered to you the "Scotty Nguyen Syndrome".
Syndrome: a predictable, characteristic pattern of behavior, action, etc., that tends to occur under certain circumstances
I don't know when it will hit and it will not affect all players at the same moment but somewhere around 18 players or 27 players; maybe even as high as 36 or even 45 players for some, it will appear. This is not just the World Series of Poker Final Table, no this is the "November Nine", the "Fall Final".
And as sure as it will be 108 degrees in Las Vegas, each an every player who survives to Day Six on July 13th and certainly to Day Seven on July 14th, each of those players will experience the "Scotty Nguyen Syndrome".
To get that close to four months of publicity and interviews and endorsements and fame and potential fortune and who knows what else... The "SNS" is going to massively effect play whenever it sets in. Players will get tight, really tight; decisions will take longer, a lot longer; tempers will shorten, in some cases really, really shorten; table talk, hand winning celebrations and anything resembling angle shooting will be scrutinized, analyzed and penalized? Floor decisions will be magnified out of all proportion, imagine giving a player a two round penalty on the bubble!
The final table bubble itself will be much bigger, extending out to at least 27 players. The media coverage will be more intense and more critical than ever before. And the players...? Well the players will not be themselves because they will be playing under the influence of the "Scotty Nguyen Syndrome".
Rumor has it that Corona will lessen but not alleviate the symptoms of the syndrome but there is a rebound effect if you excede a twelve pak in less than two full tournament levels. Perhaps Harrah's should supply extra massage staff for the final four tables or just rig cold showers above the tables like they do in hazardous material labs. And people say poker is not a sport.....
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