Enjoying my Cake
I have been playing Cake Poker this month, and have been running well (I think I have also been playing well). The players there are just a bit weaker than what you see elsewhere, and I calculated that I am running about 15 PTBB/100 - which is much better than my long-term earn rate.
While I think the weak players are contributing to some of my success, I don't think this type of earn rate is sustainable. However, I think along-term earn rate of 7-8 PTBB/100 might be sustainable at Cake Poker for me, which is still pretty good.
NL HU Cash tip #4
What does your opponent do, and how should you react, the river (PART 2)
So you have now decided to play and you picked an opponent and a buy-in amount you are comfortable with. It is time to play. What should you be thinking about? Well, you should be trying to figure out everything you can about your opponent. What hands is he raising with, what does he limp with? Does he tend to bet big with flopped trips/sets or slowplay? Does he value bet 3rd pair on the river, or does he check down? Does he tilt easily? Does he overbet a monster on the river?
We will work backwards and continue our discussion about your opponent’s river tendencies, and what you should do.
In part 2 of river play, we talk about the light value-bettor.
How do you play against the guy who:
1) Value bets very light (3rd pair through 5th pair).
Raise him often. First, you need to try to figure if he would put in a 3rd river raise with non-monsters. If not, then raise him liberally. Raise him on bluffs, raise him with top and 2-pairs, and monsters. If he is likely to reraise often (or if he catches on that you are river raising him often), then you should start to limit your raises to monsters or bluffs. The monsters are easy calls, the bluffs are easy folds. If bluff raises seem too tough to figure out when to do – pick out one type of hand that you will bluff raise the river with. (Perhaps busted straight draw that completes a possible flush?)
The common thought is to call more. There is truth to that, but to fully exploit someone who is value betting too light, you need to punish this player by raising. Calling more is OK, but you want to limit it to spots where you think you have some value and want to get to the showdown but don't want to put in any more chips.
Next time we will discuss a passive player on the river.
November Review - December Plan
I wrapped up November on a sour note with heads up games. I was up about 32 buyins at one point in the month, ended the month up 27 buyins. Still a good month for a part-time player, but part of the loss in the end was a huge pot (almost double buyin each) when I misplayed the turn. (I had KK against an OAD - flop had a lower pair - turn brought trips to the board. I should have slowed down on the turn, figuring if he has quads I will lose less, and I might win more if he does not. I foolishly bet the turn, and when he pushed the river I was priced in, especially since he had pushed light many times before.)
I was upset with myself over that and took time off from heads up poker. HU poker is strange. It is so different from 6-max or full ring or SNGs. In those, a lot of the decisions are really automatic and you can play OK even if not feeling optimally. HU NL Cash games are so player dependent that if I am not in my top mental condition I should not play.
Since my bad night at HU, I have started playing at Cake Poker - mostly 6-max NL 1/2, and done well. I jumped back into a HU game last night for the first time and won, although I would have only been even for the HU match if it were not for my 99 beating KK by having the 4 hearts on board match my 9 of hearts.
All in all, things are going well. I will continue the HU NL Cash game series soon (I think I actually have the next one mostly written). I had been thinking of jumping more to 2/4 NL HU cash games, but I am not sure I am emotionally ready for those big swings. I have been consistently taking money out of my BR (funding IRAs and Roth IRAs, etc.), perhaps I need to grow my bankroll a bit more and then I would feel more comfortable attacking the bigger games.
NL HU Cash tip #3
What does your opponent do, and how should you react, the river (PART 1)
So you have now decided to play and you picked an opponent and a buy-in amount you are comfortable with. It is time to play. What should you be thinking about? Well, you should be trying to figure out everything you can about your opponent. What hands is he raising with, what does he limp with? Does he tend to bet big with flopped trips/sets or slowplay? Does he value bet 3rd pair on the river, or does he check down? Does he tilt easily? Does he overbet a monster on the river?
We will work backwards and today talk about your opponent’s river tendencies, and what you should do.
In part 1 of river play, we talk about two topics, the river overbet and the river check raise.
1) The river overbet: Be very, very careful before calling. Most river overbets are done when someone has the nuts. Not the 2nd nuts, not a good 2nd best hand, not a value bet, but the nuts. This statement is more likely to be true if: 1) your opponent is multi-tabling HU, 2) your opponent has a full buyin, and/or 3) you think your opponent is good. Many players use reverse psychology to think big bets means “he really wants me to fold here”, I should call. That is why the river overbet is used on occasion, and is probably a decent move to have in one’s arsenal.
A river overbet is less likely to be a monster hand (although probability still might be greater than 50%) if 1) your opponent is weak and 2) your opponent is playing a smaller buyin.
2) The river ch-raise: Most weak players don’t have this in their arsenal. Most players at the limits I play usually only do it for value, although I have run into a river bluff ch-raise on a few rare occasions. When is a river ch-raise not likely to be a monster? It is more likely if your opponent is tilting. It is less likely if your opponent is not tilting and perceives you as tilting or someone who is very tough to shake off hands.
The next post in this series will discuss what to do when your opponent value bets the river with very marginal holdings.
Poker related: what am I thankful for?
I had another good year at poker. It is time to give thanks. In the scheme of things, poker is a small thing to be thankful for, relative to family, health, etc. But it never hurts to take a moment to give thanks, even for the little things.
I am thankful that I am able to make some side-money with poker. I certainly have worked hard on improving my game over the past few years, but I know lots of people who have hobbies that earn them income.
I am thankful that there are still sites that are open to US players, and the momentum now seems to be more in favor of overturning the ULIGA than for making it stricter.
I am thankful that I have learned how to play HU poker, and play it well.
I am thankful that I might get back into sports-arbitrage soon.
I am thankful for the ITH community. I have made some really good friends there over the past few years.
Tips for playing HU NL poker
I am posting various tips on playing NL HU poker. Some will seem obvious, others not-so-obvious. Some will be technical, others not.
Topic 2: How much should you buy in for?
Someone who can play both shorter and deeper stacked HU equally well probably would have a slightly higher earn rate. However, many players are better at one or the other. Whether to buy in for the full amount or less largely depends on individual factors. Some factors that can point you in one direction vs. another:
1. Do you play a lot of SNGs and especially HU SNGs?
If you play a lot of SNGs, you are used to playing with smaller stacks relative to the blinds. Most SNGs begin with about 50 big blinds, and quickly the biggest stack becomes much less than that. If this is what you are used to, I would recommend buying in for far less than a full buyin. A starting amount of 25-40 big blinds might be appropriate, as this will be similar to the earlier stages of a SNG.
2. How good are you at controlling the pot size?
If you play a lot of cash games, you probably are used to attempting to control the pot size so you win a lot with a monster vs. a good 2nd-best hand, and lose a reasonable amount when you get a good 2nd best hand and go up against a monster. The better you are at controlling the pot size with deep stacks, the more likely you would succeed at HU NL when playing for a full buyin.
3. How mechanical is your game?
If you play mechanically, you should stick with smaller buyins. What do I mean? Well many players are technically quite able, except they tend to think about all situations with similarly and don’t randomize their actions. Do you find yourself doing the same thing heads up every time you have AK, QQ, AA, or 54 suited? If so, you might want to stick to shallower stacks. The more confusion you create for your opponents, the better, so if you tend to think there are several good ways to play a hand and will often play a hand differently, you would be more likely to succeed with deep stacks.
4. How are you feeling right now?
Sometimes your personal mood will indicate how much you want to buy in for – don’t ignore that. If you normally buy in for $100 on a $1 bb NL HU table, but don’t want to risk that much right now, there is no shame in buyin in for $40-$60.
Tips for playing HU NL poker
I will start posting various tips on playing NL HU poker. Some will seem obvious, others not-so-obvious. Some will be technical, others not.
Today, I begin where you begin: picking a table.
TOPIC 1: How to select a table in NL HU cash games
Table selection is important in all games, but it might be more critical in HU games than elsewhere. There are only two players in a HU game, you and your opponent. Unless you are better than everyone in the world, there are two possibilities:
- You are better than your opponent
- Your opponent is better than you
There is more to it than that, of course. There are many players who I think I am better than who play HU NL, but I avoid them. Why? Because they are decent players and their flaws are more-minor than the typical player. Against these players, my EV would be way down.
So, table selection is important, but you might ask: how do I find a good opponent to play? Here are a few tips:
1. When you first sit down – search the opponent on the site. Are they playing multiple HU tables? If they are – you should probably leave. Someone who plays multiple heads-up tables at once almost always is a winner. Why? Well if they are not a winner, they won’t be playing HU NL very long – so it would be really lucky to bump into one.
2. How much do they buy in for? If someone buys in for the full amount or the pre-set standard amount, that does not tell me much about their play. But, if someone buys in for $126.2 at the $1/$2 NL table, that gives me very valuable information. They probably are buying in for the last of their bankroll. Players who do this are more likely to make big errors, and I love them at my table. Further, players who buy in for the minimum or close to it and only play one table are often appealing.
3. When you are playing, what do you notice? Is this player making good value bets, mixing up his/her play, bluffing or semi-bluffing occasionally, etc. If so, perhaps you should leave. If someone is raising all in for $80 pre-flop to steal your $2 – smile and enjoy!
4. Have you lost 2-buyins to the same player? If you have, maybe you should leave. First, maybe you think they are weak, but they are stronger than you. Even if they are indeed weak, they are now likely playing their very best game. There is nothing wrong with stopping the game and going to another table. Sometimes, even mention in chat – "you have my number today, so I think I am done: gg". If you really think that player is weak, they will spot you again at a later time and might sit down with you.
Many people feel embarrassed to leave a table. Don’t be this guy. Poker is about making money. There are many times I have said “no thanks” and sat out when someone I don’t want to face sits at my table. Other times I have said “I think you seem like a good player – I am going to look for some fish.” If your goal is to improve against good competition, then take on some of these players and test yourself. However, if your goal is to make money, don’t feel embarrassed about not playing the other strong players.
Killing the games!
I had been on a good run before my post on Friday. In the 60 hours or so since that post, I am up about 8 full buyins at 1/2 NL HU playing a couple hours each day. I guess that is not too out-of-the-ordinary in the scheme of things, but that boost to my bankroll is quite welcome.
My hourly rate
I decided to go back through my PT stats for heads up games to see how profitable they have been this year? I am running about about 9 PTBB/100 at HU games (all levels). It is slightly higher for 1/2 NL HU, where I have played the bulk of my games. This translates into 18 big blinds per 100 hands. The tradeoff you face when playing heads up is that it is tougher to play multiple tables, but you get more hands per table than in 6-max for full ring. I get in about 130 hands per hour per table. So, per hour, I am earning about 24 big blinds per hour per table. I was a bit stunned to see how high this was - perhaps I am just running really hot and my actual long-term rate will only be about half of this. If that is the case, I will enjoy the ride until the crash hits.
Not dead, but not posting much
I have been so busy with life, that I have not really considered posting much recently.
I plan on playing less often. I still enjoy poker, but not as much. Funny story, though. I told my wife that I was going to cut down on poker a week ago Thursday. Since then, I have gone on an absolute tear, bringing in a great 10 days of results. So results have been OK, even though play-time has been limited.
I have really been dominating HU Cash NL. I feel like I have slipped at NL HU SNGs, but it could just be variance. The HU NL cash is so profitable, though, I have focused on that instead.
Family life is going great, work is going well, but not much time for poker. Things might change in about 17 years when our youngest is out of the house. Until then, I guess I have to come to grips with the fact that I won't be playing as much as I once did.
Quick Update
My son started kindergarten recently. That has been a big hit on time, mainly because I am always getting up early with him and rarely stay up late anymore. The consequences: no more tourneys for now. This has been a bummer for me, as I love tourneys. However, by 8:00 PM, any tourney that I do well in will go until at least midnight or 1:00 PM – often later. This is later than I want to stay up given I am up by 6:00 AM, so I have not played tourneys.
I have played a lot of Heads up recently. I am rotating between $33 turbo SNGs and HU NL cash (usually $1/$2 NL). I have been focusing more on the SNGs in the past week, and have done well. I think my ROI in them is about 8-10%, which could make for a good hourly earn rate if I focused on 3-tabling for an extended period of time. Usually I can only fit 30-40 minutes of playing in, however.
I will try to start posting some HU NL information soon – but the key idea is simply to get into your opponents’ head. Know what they raise, when they slowplay, whether they would checkraise flopped trips, etc. Everyone is different, and the big challenge is to make reasonable guesses about how your opponents play as quickly as possible.
Read something recently that has really hit home
I had a bit of a downswing last week - and it didn't phase me much. I lost over 8 buyins over the stretch, and with 2 of them being at 2/4 NL (rest split between 1/2 NL and $1 bb NL), it was a sizeable downswing in $ terms, although not much relative to my bankroll nor relative to the stakes.
I used to get really upset with downswings. One of them affected me so bad that I was never able to play winning limit poker again (was at 4bb/100 over 30K hands at 5/10 limit). This was in December 1995, but even more recently I have had issues where I get really angry, when I know it is just the variance of the game. Despite having to report a sizeable amount of winnings to the IRS each of the past 3 years and complete understanding that I know that the variance is good, since the fish have to win sometime if they are to play, I still got upset.
I read something recently that really opened my eyes Angel Largay (sp?) from Bluff mag wrote an article where he said he experienced many of the same things. He was finally able to admit to himself something that got him over the emotional hump. He was afraid. When he had a downswing, he was afraid that maybe he wasn't a winning player after all. That all those winnings for all those months/years were a fluke. That really hit home and helped during my recent downswing.
When I have had downswings, I think I have become afraid that perhaps something is changing that won't allow me to keep winning. While my wife and I have made a conscious effort not to spend the money I have earned through poker as income, it has helped in many ways. We bought a new van recently, and it helped with a down payment on a house. Now it is helping fund my wife's IRA and both my and her Roth IRAs (for those not in U.S. - these are retirement accounts that offer tax advantages).
Could I still get a tad afraid in the future? Sure, but I think knowing and admitting the fear is half the battle. I recovered from the downswing quickly and recovered a good chunk of the losses back in the past couple days. I hope to keep this mindset during future downswings.
Controlling the pot size and a few hands
In the beginning stages of reading Professional NL holdem – the new Ed Miller book. A lot of that book is about controlling pot size, something I considered in the past, but probably not at the technical level that is optimal. I am starting to try to work on this.
Here is one hand where it backfires
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)
Hero ($247.30)
BB ($123)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Ac, 7h.
Button raises to $7, BB calls $4.
Flop: ($13) 8d, 7s, 5s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.
Turn: ($13) 3s (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero calls $12.
River: ($37) 3c (2 players)
BB bets $36, Hero calls $36.
Final Pot: $109
Results in white below:
BB has Ad 3h (three of a kind, threes).
Hero has Ac 7h (two pair, sevens and threes).
Outcome: BB wins $109.
While it backfires, I think I played this correct, at least on the turn and river. There are lots of hands he can have that beat me on the flop and turn. This player is such that if he bluffs the turn (either as semi-bluff or conventional), he will also fire the river. If he has value, he usually ch-calls a moderate bet on the river. So on the turn bet, I see several reasons to only call a) keeps pot smaller with a marginal hand, b) win more if he is bluffing, c) extract value from small river bet if he checks.
The only point where I think I could (should?) have played different is by betting the flop. I let him catch up, but if I know he has A3, I love the check on the flop.
Here is an example where everything worked out a lot better
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed) [url=http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php]Hand History Converter Tool[/url] from [url=http://www.flopturnriver.com]FlopTurnRiver.com[/url] (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed) [url=http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php]Hand History Converter Tool[/url] from [url=http://www.flopturnriver.com]FlopTurnRiver.com[/url] (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
Hero ($317.20)
BB ($243.10)
[b]Preflop:[/b] Hero is Button with [img]http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/qd.gif[/img], [img]http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/qc.gif[/img].
[color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $7[/color], BB calls $4.
[b]Flop:[/b] ($13) [img]http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/2c.gif[/img], [img]http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/kh.gif[/img], [img]http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/kc.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
BB checks, Hero checks.
[b]Turn:[/b] ($13) [img]http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/tc.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
[color=#CC3333]BB bets $12[/color], Hero calls $12.
[b]River:[/b] ($37) [img]http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/6h.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
[color=#CC3333]BB bets $36[/color], Hero calls $36.
[b]Final Pot:[/b] $109
Results in white below: [color=#FFFFFF]
BB has Ts 3s (two pair, kings and tens).
Hero has Qd Qc (two pair, kings and queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $109. [/color]
Heads up – when you check, opponents often take that as a sign to charge with turn and river bets. With QQ on an ace high flop, this is an ideal spot to keep the pot small. Sure, I will sometimes call turn and river bets and lose to Ax. But there are enough cases like this hand to make calling profitable.
I flopped a flush here, and tried to play a big pot. Unfortunately, the guy had a set and filled on the turn with too little behind to consider getting away.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed) [url=http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php]Hand History Converter Tool[/url] from [url=http://www.flopturnriver.com]FlopTurnRiver.com[/url] (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)
Hero ($204.40)
Button ($173)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Js, 6s.
Button raises to $7, Hero calls $4.
Flop: ($13) Qs, Ts, 2s (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $8, BB raises to $24, Button calls $16.
Turn: ($61) 2d (2 players)
BB bets $50, Button calls $50.
River: ($161) 3d (2 players)
BB bets $94, Button calls $93 (All-In).
Final Pot: $347
Results in white below:
Hero has Js 6s (flush, queen high).
Button has Qd Qh (full house, queens full of twos).
Outcome: Button wins $347. Hero wins $1.
Sometimes, players hang themselves (also – having position is nice)
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)
Hero ($209.50)
BB ($346.90)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 7d, Td.
Button raises to $7, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $4.
Flop: ($23) 9h, 8s, Jc (2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero calls $20.
Turn: ($63) 5d (2 players)
BB bets $60, Button raises to $179.5 (All-In), BB calls $119.50.
River: ($0) 5c (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: $422
Results in white below:
BB has 8c Jh (two pair, jacks and eights).
Hero has 7d Td (straight, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins $422.
When stacks are 140 bb deep, position becomes much more important. Here I called a reraise PF with a very marginal hand. With flopped bottom 2, I am willing to get all in, and I don’t want to keep the pot small. Further, I am betting big to protect my hand from many different cards that could hurt me (and many that hurt me, I can’t detect).
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)
Hero ($277.20)
BB ($274.40)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 8c, 5c.
Button raises to $7, BB raises to $20, Hero calls $12.
Flop: ($39) 5s, Qh, 8d (2 players)
BB bets $36, Button raises to $144, BB raises to $288, Button raises to $403.2 (All-In), BB calls $4.39 (All-In).
Turn: ($623.80) 3h (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($623.80) 8h (2 players, 2 all-in)
Final Pot: $623.80
Results in white below:
BB has Kh Ks (two pair, kings and eights).
Hero has 8c 5c (full house, eights full of fives).
Outcome: Hero wins $734.60.
I have a lot of work to do on controlling pot size, especially with working on PF actions influence post-flop decisions. The problem I see is that varying raise sizes does give information away about your hand. Perhaps I need to randomly vary raise sizes, but then also for hands where one size is better I make sure I use that size more often.
A guy threatens to report me
This is hilarious. I made a tough call after determining the guy had an Ace or nothing – figuring his range is such that the call is correct. I was right …
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)
Hero ($131.30)
Button ($145.10)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7s, 8s.
Button raises to $7, Hero calls $4.
Flop: ($13) 3c, Ah, 8c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6, Hero calls $6.
Turn: ($25) 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.
River: ($25) Qc (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $20, Hero calls $20.
Final Pot: $65
Results in white below:
Hero has 7s 8s (one pair, eights).
Button has Ts 9c (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins $65.
Then the following chat comes up (villains name is “GilbertTheGator”). This chat was during the beginning of the next hand (where I won a small pot with 55).
GilbertTheGator: horrilbe call
GilbertTheGator: i played the flush draw u idiot
GilbertTheGator: ur so bad
GilbertTheGator: value bet the river
GilbertTheGator checks
GilbertTheGator: lololol
GilbertTheGator: im gonna bust you so fast
Well, this guy is a tool, obviously. But how to respond. Well, I had to leave soon anyway, so I thought I could put him on tilt a bit for others to enjoy by making the following comments:
PokerElmo: fine, I will leave after this hand, if I am so bad
PokerElmo: thx for letting me know I am outclassed
He did not like this:
GilbertTheGator: if you hit and run you will be reported and blacklisted
I sat out once the big blind hit me, then said:
PokerElmo: blacklisted, for leaving with my money?
PokerElmo: please report me
After I sat out, he said he was writing the email. I know the rules well enough to know anyone can leave at anytime. I thought about reporting him, actually, as these kinds of threats might fool others who don’t know the rules. I guess you meet all kinds of tools online.
Yes, I am still alive
I am still unable to find a block of time to play a tourney, however – I really am getting the itch. However, by 8:30 PM the idea playing for 3 straight hours and the idea seems lousy, so I never sign up.
I have played a ton of heads up in the past month. Some heads up cash ($1 and $2 bb), and then transitioned into SNGs. It has been a nice venue – I am now thinking I should set the date on the calendar for the WCOOP HU event.
My wife and I are trying to figure out what to do with the modest amount of money I earn at poker. My wife and I don’t want to “spend” it like it is income, since we don’t know if this source of income will always be available (games might get tougher, more regulations to make it tougher to play, etc.). We are now saving some the cashout money in order to finish our basement. We are also contributing to a retirement plan. (I know, we live a crazy life!)
I start school in 10 days – so life gets busier again. Not sure how much less poker I will play – but certainly playing time will go down.
Will post some interesting events in the next day or two.
E