Interesting article on Robert Walker of MGM Mirage
Date: Tue, Jun 24, 2008
Here is a good article on Robert Walker of MGM Mirage. He is retiring from his position as the MGM Mirage sports book director. It surprised me a bit that the article talks more about sportsbooks and Walker specifically dealing with pro bettors more than anything else.
Good plan doesn't pan out
Date: Sat, Jun 14, 2008
Yesterday I took the Houston Astros in the 2nd Half at +130. I made this bet before the game started. The 2nd Half in baseball is the 6th inning and beyond. I liked the bet but it lost. I thought it was well thought out given the Yankees situation and had positive EV. Historically, in games with the road team around -155 favorites, the home team has been worth about +130 in the 2nd Half. If the NYY/HOU game was a normal game with a line of -155 for the Yankees, then I would have thought I had a zero-EV bet. But I knew that Mariano Rivera was unlikely to pitch, and even if he did, he would not be at 100% strength. Rivera had pitched in 4 straight games from June 7th to 10th, then took the 11th off, but then pitched again on the 12th. That's 5 out of 6 days! Incredible for a closer these days.
With Rivera out and Joba Chamberlain now in the starting rotation, the Yankee bullpen for last night's game was very suspect.
To top it off, Chamberlain was going into his 3rd start and was still probably on a pitch count. Although it would be higher than his previous start, I would have been shocked if he threw more than 100 pitches. So I didn't think he was likely to pitch much in the 2nd half of the game. If it was another pitcher, like Andy Pettitte, then there would have been the possibility of the starter going deeper into the game and pitching the 7th and 8th too. But with Chamberlain, there is a much lower chance of that. And that meant the bullpen would be pitching most or all the innings in the 2nd half. It turned out that Chamberlain threw 89 pitches over 6 quality innings.
But it didn't work out. Veras and Farnsworth pitched three scoreless innings and the Yankees scored one run in the 8th inning on a Derek Jeter solo HR. I still like the thought process and the rationale for the bet. At worst, I had a zero-EV bet. But likely, I had a positive EV bet given the reasonings shown above.
comments on the Donaghy issue
Date: Thu, Jun 12, 2008
I don't think it is a good idea to accept Donaghy's accusations as the truth. But I also don't think it is a good idea to assume he is lying. NBA commissioner David Stern is pleading with everyone to believe the latter.
I'll make a couple of comments from one of the ESPN.com articles: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3439554
Here are the comments made by the Maloofs, owners of the Sacramento Kings, on the 2002 Game 6 game against the Lakers.
We believe we have the best fans in the NBA and are so grateful for their continued passion and support," the Maloofs said in a statement. "We certainly didn't like all the calls in that Game 6 and were extremely disappointed with the outcome. However, we have been associated with the NBA for many years and feel in no way that the league was conspiring for the Kings to lose."
This is exactly what any sane person would say. The Maloofs are part of the league. No matter what they truly believed, it does not help to stab the NBA and David Stern now. It can only hurt them, and hurt them immensely. This is the case with everyone that has any connection to the NBA. Owners, players, coaches, broadcasters. Everybody. Even some reporters are probably too close to the NBA to make disparaging remarks on this issue. Imagine a reporter saying he believes Donaghy and that something fishy happened in the 2002 game. What do you think Stern, Phil Jackson, Kobe, Shaq or many others will respond to him the next time he calls them for an interview.
Next comment is on David Stern's comments:
At his news conference Thursday, Stern made his strongest statements ever regarding the 2002 Kings-Lakers game, saying: "You can watch it, you can look at it again, and you could see what we call the correct, incorrect and non-call incorrect. ... My guess is it won't be pretty, but it won't be dishonest and it won't be illegal. Of that I assure you."
It should be tough for anyone to be assured by David Stern. He now says there were many bad calls (or at least he implies it). Did he say that back then. I don't think so. Just think about Stern's motives, and you know he has to say what he says. The other thing is that he cannot prove a negative. Before the Donaghy issue, he would have claimed all his referees were clean, and he would have been wrong.
From a gambling standpoint, I would think twice about betting the home team in the playoffs when they are down 0-2 in the series. Is it possible that one of the reasons they have such a great record in that spot is the referees helping them out in some way, however slight? Possibly. And that might be enough to think about laying off those bets in the future.
Interview with a NBA bettor regarding Donaghy and betting in general
Date: Wed, Jun 11, 2008
This article on a sports bettor's view on Donaghy is interesting. I saw it linked by "MadLib" on LVA Sports.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-32-308/A-Professional-Gambler-s-Take-on-the-Tim-Donaghy-Scandal.html
new review of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting
Date: Sat, Jun 7, 2008
Here is a nice Review of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by Allen Moody at About.com
NBA Finals Home/Away is different than other playoff series
Date: Wed, Jun 4, 2008
The Home-Away schedule is different in the NBA Finals than it is for other playoff series. In all other playoff series, the schedule is:
1. A
2. A
3. B
4. B
5. A
6. B
7. A
But in the NBA finals, the schedule is like a baseball playoff series:
1. A
2. A
3. B
4. B
5. B
6. A
7. A
I have no idea why they change. They shouldn't. It really isn't a big deal traveling from coast to coast these days, and if it was, all they have to do is build in an extra day or two of rest between games 4-5 and 5-6.
This scheduling change probably makes a small difference in the series pricing, but it makes a huge difference in series props. Such as: Lakers to win in 5 games or Celtics to win in 6 games. The Lakers are the home team in game 5, the Celtics are the home team in game 6. If the linemaker did not adjust for the scheduling change, there may be value in those series props. Hint hint. That's all I'll say on that topic.
Official scoring in baseball
Date: Wed, May 28, 2008
Statistics can sometimes be arbitrary as it is up to the official scorer to make a decision on certain things. For example, sometimes it is difficult to tell if a batted ball should be counted as a hit or an error by the fielder. Here is a story of the Chicago White Sox shortsop calling up official scorers to complain.
Story of White Sox Cabrera calling the official scorer
From a sports betting perspective, it makes me wonder about the accuracy of the data that sports bettors rely on. Not only is there some randomness in the official scorer's judgments, but there is also randomness in umpire calls (balls and strikes and on the basepaths as well), managerial decisions and other randomness. To me, a story like this is a reminder not to count on past statistics as if they are completely written in stone. They may have become that way with a little push from randomness. And there may be enough pushes in the same direction to make past statistics possibly misleading. The tough part is how to figure out when they can be misleading, and when you can count on them.
Party Poker Bonus
$150/30% for PokerTexas Holdem Forums
Forum for texas holdem poker playersParty Poker Bonus Review