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Paying too much attention to the games

Date: Tue, Apr 22, 2008

I've been paying too much attention to the baseball games. That sounds odd, but I think that is the case. I've been watching too many games, spending too much time marking my bets as wins and losses as they occur, and sitting on the couch just watching baseball all day long. I should be using that time into analysing teams, players and working on collecting data. It is really easy to watch and keep score as the games are played. Watching games can be useful, but I think it is only useful to a certain extent. So I'm kicking myself in the pants to get to work instead of sitting back and watching games.

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nice article on the NBA MVP

Date: Thu, Apr 17, 2008

In past posts, I've gotten on Bill Simmons - and more specifically ESPN.com - about all the Boston-centric stuff written in his ESPN.com pieces. So I've got to give him and ESPN.com credit for his recent columns over the past few months. I doubt if my input had anything to do with it, but I appreciate it nonetheless.

Simmons' column today is on his vote for the NBA MVP. It is a nice read - a long read. Not that it matters much, but I agree with his pick for the most deserving - Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics.

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Harrah's sportsbook: the worst in Nevada

Date: Mon, Apr 14, 2008

A real-life story about Harrah's unfair treatment of gamblers that aren't completely clueless.

Jeff Haney just can’t seem to get a fair shake at Harrah’s sports book

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NFL schedule

Date: Mon, Apr 14, 2008

Apparently the NFL will release their schedule tomorrow at 2PM, and ESPN is doing a special on it. The teams that each team plays has been known since the end of the regular season since the NFL has a formula.

Basically each team plays the other three teams in their division twice (that's 6 games), each of the teams that finished in the same place as them in the other three divisions in the same conference (that's 3 games), one particular division in the other conference on a rotatin basis (4 games) and one particular division in their conference not counting the team that they already play that finished in the same place as them (3 games).

The schedule that the NFL will release simply shows the day, time and TV schedule for each game. So what's the big deal? Does it really matter? Maybe it matters it a little bit. MIA, TB and JAX may have a small edge playing September home games in humid Florida, GB, CHI and PIT may have a small edge playing December home games in the cold. But those edges are pretty small in my opinion, and often the home/away schedule is spread out fairly evenly. For example, it would be surprising to see any team play at home or away for three straight games.

The schedule that comes out tomorrow should not be a big deal. However, it may prompt some sportsbooks to release regular season wins, lines for the first week and "games of the year". Now that would be a big deal to me!

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Woa, you can drive a truck through the MLS lines

Date: Fri, Apr 11, 2008

I was checking out some lines for Major League Soccer and I was shocked. Even books with great reputations are dealing 40 cent lines! 40 CENT LINES! It is embarrassing. Why even bother offering the league if these books are going to embarrass themselves with those lines? They would be better off not listing them at all.

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April article

Date: Thu, Apr 10, 2008

Here is my article for the April Two Plus Two Internet Magazine

Taking advantage of Static Lines and Oddsin Dynamic Situations

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Using the randomness of sports to your advantage

Date: Wed, Apr 9, 2008

Over the weekend, I was talking to a non-gambling friend about sports betting. He asked me an interesting question. "Sports is so random, doesn't that screw up a lot of your bets?"

I thought for a bit and responded, "Yes, it does screw up a lot of bets. Turning some probable winning bets into losing bets but also vice versa. But also, good sports bettors can take advantage of randomness."

Over the next few blog posts, I will try to go into further detail on how good sports bettors can take advantage of randomness.

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"Super Crunchers"

Date: Thu, Apr 3, 2008

I just finished Super Cruncers by Ian Ayres. Interesting book. He describes how statisticians with large databases are changing the world in many different fields. There probably isn't anything in the book that will make anyone a better handicapper or bettor, but I think it is useful to read about what other people in other fields are doing. It opens up a few pathways of thought. I recommend the book.


Note: one thing I didn't like about the book was how Ayres presented Justin Wolfer's work on college basketball. I won't get into that today and I may never get to it, but just wanted to note that in case someone read the book based on this recommendation.

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some random thoughts

Date: Tue, Apr 1, 2008

There's been lots of complaining by so-called sharp players that things aren't going there way. Lots of soul-searching about what to do differently and why they aren't winning. I say "so-called" because probably not all the guys complaining are as sharp as they think they are. I do agree that this is a topic that should be explored in-depth. Are line makers sharper than they were in the past? I think so. Is the public sharper than they were in the past - or at least less square? I think so too. Are there more sharps now than before? Probably. Those all add up to make a tougher, more efficient marketplace.


Yesterday was 30 degrees where I live. Today it is 55. Although there was a little rain, the wind was that familiar spring wind that is so inviting in the Northeast - as opposed to the biting, ship winter wind. And baseball is back! My favorite sport from a fan's perspective, but not from a betting perspective.

I'm surprised there are no day baseball games today. They usually have some early in the year. I haven't checked the schedule, but I hope more teams have games during the day.

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test post

Date: Mon, Mar 31, 2008

I just got a new phone. This is just a test to see if I can post entries into the blog.

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more NCAA tourney futures

Date: Sat, Mar 22, 2008

additional futures bets before the Round of 32.

West: Xavier 12-1 9.6%
East: Butler 45-1 2.7%
East: Washington State 18-1 8.4%
South: Pittsburgh 9-1 10.6%

I bet Washington State at 17-1 before the tournament started, so it seemed like just a goofball mistake by the book.

Futures lines are not consistent between books, so don't be surprised if you don't see any of these available.

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some prop bets I made for March Madness

Date: Wed, Mar 19, 2008

For March Madness props, I use market information from game lines and (more liquid) futures lines to interpret how they reflect where other odds. I know very few players or coaches in college basketball. I made these bets based on market information and manipulation of one line to another. It is possible these lines aren't available anywhere anymore. I also list my projected probability of the bet winning in percentages.

Midwest: Clemson 12-1 10%
Midwest: Kent 100-1 1.4%
Midwest: Wisconsin 9-1 10.6%

East: Washington State 17-1 6.4%

To make it to the Elite 8:
Davidson +1375 7.4%
West Virginia +1185 8.6%
Notre Dame +1250 11.6%
Oklahoma +1665 7.2%
Butler +1250 7.5%
Michigan State +955 13.9%
Marquette +835 14.1%

Texas is eliminated in the Sweet 16 +300 28.5%
Tennessee is eliminated in the Round of 32 +350 23.6%
Tennesee is eliminated in the Sweet 16 +300 29.4%
Georgetown is eliminated in the Sweet 16 +350 28.5%

Number of #1 seeds to make the Final Four: 1 +250 31.3%

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Free March Madness Tournaments

Date: Wed, Mar 19, 2008

For the NCAA Tournament, there are a bunch of free March Madness bracket pools with zero entry fees and free prizes. Except for a little spam here and there from the sponsoring companies (there are probably ways to minimize those if you read through the fine print carefully), these freebies are nice. Whether you know anything about this year's teams (I certainly don't as I haven't followed college basketball at all this year), these tourneys still offer positive EV, especially the free ones! All it takes is a two or three minutes if you go through the selections quickly.

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off for a month

Date: Mon, Feb 18, 2008

I'm taking a month-long trip. I'll be back posting in mid- to late-March.

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