IND/TEN prop

Date: Sun, Dec 30, 2007

The IND/TEN Sunday Night game is an intersting line. TEN is a 4.5-point road favorite, but IND is the favorite in the First Half and First Quarter. it is all due to the expectation that the IND starters will play the 1Q and possibly the 1H, but not in the Second Half.



For the prop "which team will score first", we only care about the early part of the game. The game is unlikely to be unscored at the half. Given that IND is favored in the 1H, they should be favored to score first. Yet, I was able to find IND to score first at +120 and +100. This is a solid prop bet because the bookmakers are too lazy or too stupid to move their lines.

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Baseball records versus Football records

Date: Sun, Dec 23, 2007

Over the past week or so (and before that too), much has been discussed about why fans hold baseball players to a higher standard when it comes to usage of performance enhansing drugs. Meanwhile, it seems football players get a pass once they have served their 4-game suspension. Maybe that is a phrasing it a bit too simply and maybe it isn't fair for football players to say it that way, but I'm going to go with that.

One of the things that was brought up why fans are harsher on baseball fans is that records matter in baseball. We know about Bonds' home run records, about Clemens' 7 Cy Youngs and 2nd to Nolan Ryan in strikeouts.

While watching today's Patriots game, something clicked for me. With the ball close to the Miami goal line, instead of running the ball into the end zone, the Patriots passed and Brady threw a touchdown. I have nothing against Brady or the Patriots wanting him to get the record. But what clicked for me is that in football, the players and coaches have a much more important role on targeting a specific number and breaking a record. Sure, Brady still has to play well and the Patriots still have to get to the endzone, but a lot of him possibly breaking the touchdown record has to do with their play calling. And I believe their play calling has something to do with the record.

This is sometimes the case in baseball, but managerial choice is much less important. If someone was going for the Home Run record, they don't get more at-bats or more chances. They can't let McGwire bat for Eckstein, but they can let Brady pass instead of running it with Maroney. Again, I'm not saying there's anything wrong with Brady or the Patriots trying for the touchdown record. What I am saying is that it becomes a bit less important of a record if the play calling choice can change the chance of breaking the record. In other words, if the record was 47, Brady/Patriots may play a bit different than if the record was 49.

That's not to say that football is worse than baseball, just that they are different and another reason why individual records and numbers mean much less in football. And maybe that's part of the reason why fans get on baseball playes more about performance enhancement usage than they get on football players.

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more thoughts on Week 17

Date: Sun, Dec 23, 2007

I should have added this information to my article on Two Plus Two, but didn't.

Don't be afraid to bet big home favorites in Week 17. Compared to the rest of the season, home favorites do very well.

All home teams in week 17 ATS (Against-the-spread): 253 games, 62.5%
All home teams in other weeks: 4,268 games 58.0%

Home favorites of -7.5 or greater in week 17 ATS: 45 games, 56.8%
Home favorites of -7.5 or greater in other weeks ATS: 849 games, 46.7%

The sample size is small, particularly for home favorites greater than 7.5 points. I wouldn't allow this data to force me to bet all big home favorites. But I wouldn't be afraid to take a big home favorite in week 17 like I would be in other weeks of the regular season.

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The Eagles are better than their record indicates

Date: Sun, Dec 23, 2007

The Philadelphia Eagles are 6-8 and in last place in the NFC East. They have been eliminated from playoff contention for a couple of weeks. But looking at their past games, they really are a pretty good team in my opinion. Here are some reasons why:

- Looking at points scored versus points allowed: they scored 281 and allowed 268. Teams that score more points than they allow are usually .500 or better teams. It only takes one more win for the Eagles to be a .500 team.

- Looking at close games: close games have some luck in them. One good or bad bounce in a 21-point game may not change the winner of the game, but it may in a 6-point game. The Eagle's record in games decided by less than 7 points is: 1-5. Could they have easily gone 3-3 in those games? In my opinion, yes. If they had gone 3-3, they would be 8-6 with a chance to get into the playoffs.

- First down stats: gaining lots of first downs is a sign of a good football team. The top three offenses in terms of first downs are: NE, DAL and IND. No surprise there. PHI is 8th. On the defensive side, the top three teams in terms of first downs are: BAL, TB and PIT. Again, no surprises there as those three teams are well known for having good defenses (FWIW, NE is 5th, IND is 7th). PHI is tied with NE for 5th. So the Eagles are 8th best in first downs on offense, and 5th best on defense. That looks like a playoff team.

- Overall yardage: On Offense, PHI has accumulated 4,903 yards (9th in the NFL) and allowed 4,365 yards on defense (8th in the league). Again, this stat indicates they are a playoff-type team.

So why are they only 6-8? All the signs show they are a playoff calibre team. One possible explanation is that they've had bad luck in crucial spots. Another explanation is that they've palyed a tough schedule. With the exception of the Jets and the Dolphins, every opponent they've played has been decent or very good or great.

Great teams: NE, DAL (twice)
Probable playoff teams: GB, NYJ (twice), SEA, MIN
Decent teams: DET in week 3 when DET was playing well, CHI in week 7 when CHI was still a decent team, and WAS (twice) who still has a shot at the playoffs.

Using my current power rankings, the Eagles have had the toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. And yet, they've held their own (mostly).

So how do we make money from this opinion?

One possibility is to bet them in week 16 against the Saints and/or week 17 against the Bills. The problem with these bets is to answer the question: how motivated are the Eagles? In the last two weeks, when they were already probably out of the playoff race, they still played hard. They lost to the Giants by 3 and beat the Cowboys by 4. But those were tough divisional games. They probably would have played hard even if they were 10-4 or 4-10. The last two games are against non-divisional foes, the desire to win may not be there anymore. This is where the "art" in handicapping comes in. The Saints need to win in Week 16 to stay in the playoff race. Unfortunately the line isn't that high, the Saints are only favored by -3 -120 or so. Its not a no-brainer given that line to take an unmotivated Eagles team versus a motivated Saints team. Although it still could be a good bet, I know I definitely wouldn't take the Saints and lay the points, I'd either take the Eagles or pass on the game.

Another possibility is to look forward to 2008 and look to bet on the Eagles to win the NFC, the NFC East and Over on Regular Season Win Totals. Those lines haven't come out yet of course, so you'd still have to see if the market agrees or disagrees with the analysis. It is possible the market agrees, and there may not be any value in going long the Eagles. Also, there is the twist that the Eagles may get rid of McNabb. That may be good or bad, I don't know, but I do know it will change the team dramatically. If the Eagles do not have McNabb in 2008, then it may not be useful to use 2007 numbers as an indication of the 2008 team.

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Why are there no NFL games on Saturday December 8?

Date: Sat, Dec 8, 2007

I've always wondered why there are no NFL games on the Saturday after the College Football Conference Championship games. It seems like a perfect day to have a prime time game (or two). Without any football today, it doesn't seem like a Saturday at all. (I'm sorry, but the Division I-AA playoff semifinals doesn't do much for me). I'd imagine the NFL has looked into it since they clearly know how to make money. So I wonder what their reason is for not having a game or two today.

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The NFL embraces a HGH user

Date: Thu, Dec 6, 2007

Rodney Harrison gets suspended for the first 4 games this season for being caught using HGH. We're in week 14. Now the NFL is celebrating Harrison by putting him on the NFL Network's Thursday Nigh Game Halftime show with a nice interview. Why is it that fans and the media like to bomb baseball for not doing anything against performance enhancing drugs? The NFL always gets a pass. Former players Deion Sanders, Marshall Faulk and a former coach, Steve Mariucci, all intereviewed him with laughs and love. Shame on them. They know the NFL doesn't care, they know they don't care, and they know NFL fans don't care. Let's dig this up the next time someone blasts baseball for being light on HGH users.

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No big deal: Steeler player's guarantee and Dodger's new signing

Date: Thu, Dec 6, 2007

On the Steelers/Patriots:

A story on ESPN.com has a no-name defensive back for the Pittsburgh Steelers "guaranteeing a win". What's the big deal about an athlete guaranteeing a win or sounding confident about a game? The media likes to play it up, but what are we to expect? For the Steelers to say they don't think they have a chance at all and they might as well stay in Pittsburgh this weekend? Athletes should be confident they can win, otherwise, why bother playing?

Actually, reading the story, the guarantee is qualified:

"We're going to win," Smith said. "Yeah, I can guarantee a win. As long as we come out and do what we got to do. Both sides of the ball are rolling, and if our special teams come through for us, we've got a good chance to win."

He uses "as long as....." and "if our......we've got a good chance to win".

That doesn't sound like bravado to me.

As for motivating the Patriots, I say: "c,mon". Does a NFL team really need that type of motivation to play their game? I don't think so. If the Patriots needed that type of motivation, then they would not have won their first 12 games this year. To me, the impact of the guarantee especially by a no-name player is absolutely zero.

The line on this game is interesting. After the Eagles/Patriots game, where the Patriots only won by 3 when the point spread was 24, they still opened as a 21-point favorite on the road in Baltimore. That number was actually a tough higher than the Las Vegas Hilton had the BAL/NE game before the PHI/NE game was played (the Hilton has Game-of-the-Year lines, lines on future games in the NFL regular season that are bettable throughout the year). The Hilton line was listed at 21 and then was bet down to 20. Unfortunately, I missed the 21 and it was 20 by the time I noticed it. I didn't get a wager in. I did get a wager in at 21 when the line first opened, albeit at -115. Still, I was surprised the line didn't budge and actually went up from the 20 that the Hilton had. The line did move down to 18.5/19 by game time.

Previous to NE-BAL game, I think the line on the PIT-NE game at the Hilton was 14 or 14.5. The current line is 10/10.5, so clearly there has been an adustment as it crosses a few important numbers (half or all of 14, 13 and half of 10).


On Andruw Jones signing with the Dodgers
Wow, Andruw Jones signed for a lot of money. It was only a 2-year deal, but at $18 million per year, he is overpaid relative to his performance. Jayson Stark had it right when he listed Andruw Jones as one of the most overrated players in his book that came out over the summer. He got a lot of flak for that, but Andruw lived up to the billing with his poor performance this year. Here are his important OBP/SLG stats and where it ranks in the NL in the past three years (not the same tired, not-as-useful trio of AVG-HR-RBI ... sure those stats are important for Rotisserie leagues, but there are much more useful stats for analyzing baseball paleyrs):

2005
OBP: .347 42nd in the NL
SLG: .575 5th in the NL

2006
OBP: .363 27th
SLG: .531 15th

2007
OBP: .311 67th
SLG: .413 65th

Even if the Dodgers expected Andruw Jones to get back to 2006 levels, that's still only about the 20th best player in the NL. Given the AL has many more star hitters, that may place Andruw Jones about 50th best in all of MLB. (I am purposely taking out the fielding equation since by many accounts, he's no longer a true Gold Glover, but only winning it on reputation alone).

$18 million for the 50th best hitter in baseball? The Dodgers overpaid.

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Article in the 2+2 Magazine: Week 17 of the NFL season

Date: Mon, Dec 3, 2007

My latest article in the Two Plus Two Magazine is on the last week of the NFL season.

NFL Week 17: Interesting Aspects of the Last Game of the NFL Regular Season

Feel free to comment on the Two Plus Two Magazine forum or email me.

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NFL run defenses are unpredictable

Date: Fri, Nov 30, 2007

In the Nov 23 issue of the ESPN magazine, Doug Drinen of Pro-football-reference.com writes a fantasy football article that is just as pertinent to sports bettors titled Lost Cause (sorry, I could not find an internet link).

His main argument is that there is little correlation between the top defenses against RBs in terms of fantasy points from one segment of the season to another. Whether it sliced in the first 8 games versus the last 8 games, the first four versus the next four, etc., the news is the same - there is little predictability of fantasy points given up by defenses against RBs based on the defenses past fantasy performance.

Fantasy points are different than real yards/game, yards/carry, etc., but I imagine it can't be all that different. The Indianapolis Colts run defense of last year's regular season versus playoffs seem to be a good anecdote for this idea.

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comprehensive review posted on SSB

Date: Sun, Nov 25, 2007

Here is a well-thought out, well-written comprehensive review of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by poster electric puha in the Sharp Sports Betting forum.

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A very useful football blog

Date: Wed, Nov 21, 2007

I recommend the Stat Intelligence blog, written by bloggguy. Blogguy also posts weekly NFL power ratings on LVASports.com. His blog should be bookmarked by all sports bettors and read frequently.

http://statintelligence.blogspot.com/

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Greedy sportsbooks

Date: Sun, Nov 11, 2007

Now that the World Series is long over, I feel a bit more comfortable writing about this. Offshore sportsbook Olympic usually has props on "which team will hit the first HR in the game?" and "which team will hit the first Triple in the game?" Triples don't happen very often, so both teams are usually listed as -115. HRs are much more common, and if the two teams are even, the away team will be a bit of favorite. Olympic deals these props on many games during the year, so they have learned to put up fairly accurate lines. Especially given their 30-cent line, it is tough (IMO) to find an edge in these props at Olympic. Plus their limits are fairly low on props, so even if you find an edge, you can only bet so much.

During the playoffs, and especially the World Series, other books decide to put up props too. Too often, they do it the lazy way and just copy Olympic's lines. In Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting, I wrote about a mis-labeled prop in the Seattle/Pittsburgh Super Bowl where the sportsbook that copied Olympic's lines got screwed because they incorrectly labeled the prop.

It happened again in the Red Sox / Rockies World Series in game 1 - this time at a different sportsbook. The greedy sportsbook not only "cheated" by copying Olympic's lines on "Who will hit the first Triple in the game?", they also decided to make it a 3-way line and add a "No Triples will be hit". Usually this is good for the book to make a 3-way line because they increase the total vig on the three-way action compared to the two-way action.

In this case, Olympic had the following line:

Who will hit the first Triple in Game 1:
Rockies -115
Red Sox -115

If there was no Triple in the game, then the bet would be canceled and all bets refunded.

The greedy sportsbook added the "No Triple" because they wanted to clean up on both the Red Sox and Rockies bettors if no triples happened. That may work in other props, but it didn't work in this one. They had the following line:

Who will hit the first Triple in Game 1:
Rockies -115
Red Sox -115
No Triple +400

Unfortunately for the greedy sportsbook, triples are rare in baseball, in particular Fenway park where there really is only one part of the field where a triple can occur (deep center field in the triangle area). The No Triple should be worth -400! The greedy sportsbook had mispriced the No by an incredible margin.

Greedy sportsbooks should get punished, especially if they are copiers too. They did learn their lesson a bit as they did not offer the "No Triple" in the other games of the World Series after having to pay out my winning wager.

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article in the 2+2 Magazine: Regression to the Mean in Sports Betting

Date: Tue, Nov 6, 2007

Here is my latest article for the Two Plus Two Internet Magazine.

Regression to the Mean in Sports Betting

The subject in the article deserves fuller treatment. Upon finishing the article, I thought I could probably expand on the topics into two full-length chapters in a book. Possibly that will happen in the future if I put together a Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting Volume II.

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NFL RSW mid-season update

Date: Tue, Nov 6, 2007

Here is an update on the progress of the NFL Regular Season Win totals that I posted before the season began. The current values that I estimate are in Red.

ARI Under 7.5 -110. FV -134 Current FV -155. Still up in the air.

BAL Under 9 +120, +130. FV +109 Current FV -2100. BAL is 4-4. They'd have to go 5-3 to tie or 6-2 to go Over 9 wins. I'm looking good on this one. I think they only have a 4% chance of going 6-2 or better. They've got a tough schedule coming up, with 6 tough teams (CLE, SD, NE, IND, SEA and PIT).

CAR Under 9 -120. FV -152 Current FV -1063. CAR is 4-4 also, but I think they have a better chance of winning 5 or 6 than BAL does, even though I think BAL is a better team. The difference is their schedule.

CHI Under 10 -115. FV -141 This one is almost a lock. CHI is 3-5 and even if they go 6-2, I'll still win the Under.

DAL Under 9 +125, +120. FV +100 This one is dead. DAL is 7-1 and considered the best team in the NFC. It would be a shocker if they went 2-6 or 1-7 the rest of the way.

GB Under 7.5 -150. FV -173 This one is dead too. GB already has 7 wins and only needs one more to go Over.

KC Over 7.5 EVEN. FV -125 Current FV -118. This one is a coin-flip. One problem for the Over is that Larry Johnson looks like he'll be out for a couple of weeks.

MIA Over 7 -130, Over 7.5 +130. FV -135, +118. Miami is 0-8. This one is dead.

NO Under 9.5 -120 Current FV -190. After starting off 0-4, the Saints have turned it around and won their last 4 to get to .500. It will still be tough for them to get to 10 wins, but a bet that looked like a lock for me a month ago can actually turn sour now.

OAK Over 5 EV Current FV +396. Not looking good. OAK has lost a few games where the were slight favorites.

IND Under 10.5 +110 Close to being dead. The Colts defense has really shocked me, they are terrific.

PHI Under 9 +125, +120. FV -101 Close to being a winner. PHI is only 3-5 and it would be surprising to see them go 6-2 or 7-1 the rest of the way. Their head coach has personal problems and McNabb doesn't seem like he's back to early 2006 form.

SF Under 7.5 +135, Under 8 -125, -130. FV +104, -156 Close to being a winner. The 49ers are 2-6 and would have to go 6-2 to get to 8 wins.

Overall, it looks like I'll likely win 5, lose 5...and the other 3 (ARI, KC and NO) are too close to call. I'll probably have to win 2 out of those 3 to be ahead on the year in RSW bets.

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