Free furniture for Red Sox fans

Date: Mon, Oct 29, 2007

In Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting, Chapter 22: Sports Bets in Unusual Places, I wrote about the promotion that Jordan's Furniture ran in March/April 2007. Customers that bought furniture from Jordan's Furniture during the promotion were guaranteed to get their money back if the Red Sox won the World Series in 2007.

The true cost of the furniture was the price the customer paid less the value of the futures ticket. The Red Sox won the World Series last night and the futures ticket cashed, meaning customers got their money back.

Here's a recent article: Promotional rebate has thousands of Red Sox fans sitting pretty

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World Series series price

Date: Tue, Oct 23, 2007

My guesstimate for the game lines in the World Series are:

Game 1 66.0%

Game 2 63.0%

Game 3 54.0%

Game 4 50.0%

Game 5 58.0%

Game 6 63.0%

Game 7 62.0%

These game lines equates to BOS -234 (70%) in the World Series.

We'll find out if my guesstimate is accurate as the games come along. I certainly don't think my numbers are iron-clad. I would be a bit disappointed and surprised if the numbers are far different than mine, but I wouldn't be totally shocked.

For an easy way to plug in numbers and get a series price (as well as other props such as Red Sox to sweep), go to SharpSportsBetting.com and click on Prop Tools in the Links area on the left margin. Save the Excel spreadsheet and go to the tab: "King Yao's NBA Playoffs". Its set up for the NBA, but you can ignore the pointspread and just type in the probablity for the Red Sox. Using the numbers I posted, I get 70% or -234. This formula assumes the lines are consistent with zero zig-zag issues.

The zig-zag isn't as big of an issue in baseball as it is in the NBA, but it may play a part. For example, the Yankees are usually over-valued in the playoffs. IMO, there is value in betting against the Yankees in almost any playoff series. But at the same time, there is more value in betting them in the individual games because they get even more over-valued (incorrectly so IMO) when their backs are against the wall. So betting the individual games is better than the series against the Yankees. The Red Sox won't be as over-valued in the individual games as the Yankees were, but they will be slightly as they are getting a reputation for winning when facing elimination. ESPN threw out a stat that they are 14-3 when facing elimnation since 1986 (or something like that)...of course they'll only dig up that info when it serves the purpose of a story (who cares about 1986 or 1999, the players are different, they just have the same fans and wear the same shoes). The important thing to remember is that the public will here these stories, and that may sway the line 10 to 20 cents towards the Red Sox.

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Great post about college football

Date: Mon, Oct 22, 2007

Here's another great post by blogguy on LVASports.com regarding college football. I hope he continues updating this angle in CFB for the rest of the year. There didn't seem to be that much reaction to the post (only 6 posts before mine), but I'll be sure to bump it up before the weekend.

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There is no such thing as Destiny in sports

Date: Mon, Oct 22, 2007

Here's another post blasting the media. The Red Sox came back from a 3 games to 1 deficit and go on to the World Series. It felt like the first word out of the ESPN Sportscenter broadcasters was "destiny". No, it wasn't. If it was destiny, would the Red Sox be happy losing three out of the first four games? Of course not. If it was destiny, they would have simply swept all four games and made it easy. It wasn't destiny, it was randomness. Randomness doesn't mean the Red Sox didn't deservie their win, it doesn't mean the players shouldn't try. It just means there is a certain probability that one team should beat the other, and after that, its chance from there. It is our job as sports bettors to try to determine what that probability is. Then compare the line to our expected probability. If there is a big enough difference, then we make a wager with positive EV. After that, its up to randomness whether we win or lose, not destiny.

People who believe in destiny don't care what the line is, they just bet on the team they think will win regardless of the line. They don't care about value. Of course, they are also long-term losers.

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Cleveland Indians and their two-out run-scoring base hits

Date: Wed, Oct 17, 2007

Are the two-out run-scoring base hits that the Indians have been getting in the playoffs a fluke? Have they been getting lucky?

Of course...yes.

They are on a good run, been getting lucky and winning games. There's nothing wrong with getting lucky and winning games, but if you hear someone give you a rational reason for these two-out hits, you'll know they are falling into the trap of forcing an explanation for randomness. Randomness is a part of sports. Sometimes the answer is: they got a good roll of the dice a few times. Nothing more, nothing less.

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Accuracy of databases

Date: Mon, Oct 15, 2007

In the past, I've compared the numbers in my databases with other people. I'm actually in the process of doing so right now. It really is easy to screw up a negative or positive sign and have the home team as a 12 point favorite when they should be a 12 point underdog. So it is useful to compare and contrast numbers to get out those stupid errors.

But at the same time, there are other lines that may be different between different databases. What should the two people do about that? Should person 1 change or person 2? Actually, I don't think either has to necessarily change as both could be right.

You must be thinking "what the heck is he talking about? If two people have different lines, how could they both be right?"

The answer is that the line moves. One person may capture the line that was stagnant from Tuesday to Saturday at -7. Another person may capture the line at 12pm Eastern, an hour before the NFL 1PM kickoffs, and capture the line of -8 because the line moved on Sunday morning. In my opinion, both people are right, neither is wrong. Of course, it is helpful to have both lines, so you could look at line movements as well. Unfortunatley, I don't have that information, and frankly, I can't recall when I captured the data for my database, nor can I tell when the other person captured his data. So I'm left with having to choose a number. Either keep mine, change mine to his, or do something in between. Checking with other sources (such as Covers.com) can be helpful, but only to the extent that the line didn't move. For example, let's say I used a closing line and so did Covers, but the other person used a Saturday line. That doesn't mean I'm right and the other guy is wrong just because Covers' data agreed with me.

So the moral of this post is simply try to be diligent when inputting your database numbers, but you can only do so much. Besides, results from databases should always be looked at askew, especially in the NFL since the sample sizes are so small.

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Yankees-Indians series line versus individual game lines

Date: Wed, Oct 10, 2007

The series is over and the Indians won in 4 games. But looking back, it continues to amaze me how overvalued the Yankees are on a game-by-game basis in the playoffs, especially when they are in a mist-win sitaution (note, I am a Yankee fan for 30+ years, but this isn't about being a fan but about making positive-EV bets).

I knew they would be overvalued in the individual games, so I decided to stay away from betting the Indians on the series. I thought I would get more value in the indvidual games. But last week, I was still able to find the Indians +180 in the series (when most books had -170 on the Yankees, in fact, the casino across the street had -170 and I had an instant arb if I wanted it - I passed on the arb, knowing that I couldnt' get +180 again). I didn't think even the inflated game lines would get be past +180. But as it turned out, it did.

I could have bet the following on the Indians in each game:

Game 1: +110
Game 2: +120
Game 3: +180
Game 4: +200
Game 5: +110 (at least +110 if that game was played)

These were not fair-market (mid-market) lines, rather they were lines I could and did bet on the Indians.

Using those numbers, the expected winning percentage on the Yankees was -185. So as it turns out, I could have done a little better taking the Indians in the individual games than the series. Even though I took that into consideration, I did not take it enough into consideration and the marketplace surprised me even still.

This won't be useful until next year, when (hopefully) the Yankees make it again to the playoffs.

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Power Rating thread on LVASports by blogguy

Date: Sat, Oct 6, 2007

Perhaps the most informative and most important weekly sports betting thread on internet forums is the NFL Power Ratings threads that blogguy starts. I'd suggest anyone remotely interested in betting the NFL look at these threads on a regular basis. You may not agree with the numbers, but if not, you should try to come up with a valid reason why not...and post your comments in the thread to see what others think. Here is this week's thread:

Blogguy's Power Ratings thread: NFL Community Power Ratings for Games of Oct 7-8

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review of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting

Date: Sat, Oct 6, 2007

Here is a review of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by Jay Graziani on MajorWager.com. His review of my book starts in the middle of his article.

A Mid-Season Reading List for Aspiring Football Handicappers...By Jay Graziani

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NFL Power Ratings article

Date: Wed, Sep 26, 2007

My article in the September 2007 Two Plus Two Internet Magazine is on NFL Power Ratings. Here is the link to the article: NFL Power Ratings article (the link will only be good through the end of September).

A poster by the handle of SumZero made a good post with a better formula compared to the simple addition/subtraction. Here is his post: SumZero's post If you read the article, I suggest you read his post as well.

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Over-reaction regarding NFL teams

Date: Mon, Sep 24, 2007

After three games, some teams will look terrific and other teams will look horrible. The teams that look terrific are likely very good teams. But sometimes there is an overreaction. After last night's win against the Chicago Bears, people are now annointing the Dallas Cowboys as the team to beat in the NFC. I don't disagree with that...that seems about right. They have played well, won three games convincingly and I would agree they are the best team in the NFC.

What I don't agree with, is the instant over-reaction that they are far and away the best team in the NFC. People are comparing them to the best teams in the AFC - PIT, IND and NE. That's a bit too early, we really need to see more than three games. People forget that three games is still only three games.

Their next two games look pretty easy. They have a visiting 0-3 St. Louis Rams team without their star RB, and they are are a 11.5 point favorite. I have no problems with that line.

Next after the Rams, they visit an injured and down-in-the-dumps Buffalo team. Looks like they'll be a decent-sized favorite in that game as well.

But week 6 is the real test. That's when the New England Patriots, the best team in the NFL by far, visits the Cowboys in Dallas. If the Cowboys can hold their own in that game - they don't have to win, just hold their own - then people can rightfully put them up there.

If the Cowboys were playing different teams next week, I wouldn't be too surprised if they lost to any of these NFC teams: SEA, PHI, WAS, CAR, and yes, CHI again. One loss, even a bad loss, does not mean the Bears are worthless and can't play the game anymore. The game was tied 10-10 in the 3rd Quarter, it wasn't a real blowout from start to finish.

No need to overreact. Being the front-runner in the NFC doesn't mean they will definitely win. With that said, here are my current expected odds on the Cowboys:

to win the NFC East: -474 or 82.6%
to win the NFC: +190 or 34.8%
to win the Super Bowl: +810 or 11.0%

The big difference between the NFC and Super Bowl odds is due to the New England Patriots. Week 6 looms ahead.

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It is just too early to talk about an undefeated season

Date: Wed, Sep 19, 2007

People are already talking about the possibility of an undefeated season for the New England Patriots. It is simply too early. I agree they are the best team in the NFL, but undefeated is still a stretch. My current power ratings have them expected to win 13.21 games this year, with a 3.6% chance of winning every game. 3.6% is really high to expect a team to go undefeated, but it is still almost a 30-1 shot. Maybe the 3.6% should go be a bit higher if NE shows they are even better than people expect. But they killed both their opponents in the last two weeks - two playoff teams - so it is that much less likely that they are underestimated at this point.

Here are my winning percentages that I've pegged for NE in their remaining 14 games:

95% vs BUF
67% at CIN
95% vs CLE
64% at DAL
81% at MIA
92% vs WAS
53% at IND
84% at BUF
84% vs PHI
62% at BAl
75% vs PIT
93% vs NYJ
95% vs MIA
81% at NYG

Talking about 16-0 is way too early. Let's wait until after the IND game in week 9.

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Why does ESPN.com have a local Boston writer on their staff?

Date: Mon, Sep 17, 2007

ESPN.com is a website intended for all sports fans. ESPN the Magazine is a national publication. Yet, why do they both have a local Boston writer on their staff? Bill Simmons is a diehard Boston fan. There's nothing wrong with that. And he actually understands some stuff about sports betting that is often refreshing compared to other media guys. The question I have is: why does ESPN have a guy writing soleley about his local teams, and using his personal perspective as a fan? Maybe that is not what they intended, but clearly Simmons voices everything from the Red Sox and Patriot fan's point of view.

His latest (see here) is just another one of the same. Again, I have no problem with his columns, but if I wanted to read columns like that, I'd pick up a local Boston newspaper or log in to one of their websites. Why do I, or other fans around the country, have to see Simmons' local slant all the time? I know I can choose not to read it, and often I don't because I know the tone of the message in the articles before I even click on them. I'll bet there are a lot of other guys that choose not to read his articles on ESPN.com either. That just means the product put out by ESPN.com and ESPN is diminished.

Tell me of another city that is represented the same way on ESPN. I don't see anyone else.

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Belicheck and Video-gate is good for the NFL and bettors

Date: Sun, Sep 16, 2007

The NFL has gotten a lot of attention due to the Belicheck "video-gate" issue. No current NFL fan is going to stop watching football due to it, but probably more people are going to watch that may not have cared before. In particular, they are going to be interested when the Patriots are playing on primetime or in the playoffs. More interest means more bettors...more bettors probably means more square bettors. This is a good thing!

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