June Results
Date: Sun, Jun 29, 2008
June was a very good month, even better than April and May. I managed to win a little over $6000 this month with LHE, not counting rakeback. In addition to that, I also managed to win a small 6-max LHE tourney ($11 buyin) where I won $264. And finally, I also won around $186 playing PLO50.
With rakeback, I probably made a little over $7000 this month.
Heads-Up
Played $5/$10 and $8/$16 this month, averaging almost 5.5BB/100. I must admit that I probably ran above true win rate. If all goes well, I might be trying some $10/$20 next month.
Hands Played: 7134
Net result: +$4438.00
BB/100: +5.49BB/100
I also managed to keep on the good side of variance in my 6-max games, except for $10/$20. I didn't play that much $10/$20 because there aren't that many tables running on average. In fact, there are always more $15/$30 tables. Too bad I can't multi table $15/$30 because my bankroll doesn't support that yet. These $15/$30 games are usually quite juicy with the 2/3 blind structure. Rake is also a lesser factor here.
Hands Played: 4353
Net Result: +$1630.50
BB/100: +3.20BB/100
April & May Results
Date: Thu, May 29, 2008
I ran very well the last two months. I played a little over 26K hands where I averaged 3.59BB/100, resulting in a little over $8500 profit. In addition to that, I get around $1200 due to rakeback. Needless to say, I am very pleased with these results.
I play mostly $5/$10 the last few months. I did play some $8/$16 but decided to wait a few more weeks before actually stepping up. I did this because I wasn't running well at that moment and I had a few new strategies which I needed work out. I hope to make $8/$16 part of my usual game selection next month.
Hands Played: 14449
Net result: +6206.00
BB/100: +4.18BB/100
I ran well above average the last two months, which is nice for a change. I run about 35/25/1.7 in these games ($2/$4 till $8/$16) which I think is optimal. I will try to play some $10/$20 next month also whenever I can find a good table.
Hands Played: 11241
Net Result: +$2321.25
BB/100: +2.93BB/100
6-Max Limit Hold'em
Date: Sun, May 18, 2008
Even though I mainly play heads-up, I still play some 6-max from time to time. Since I do not rely on 6-max as my main source of income, I can practice excellent table selection. Whenever I don't find any good table, I simply don't play and go do something else. I usually play $5/$10 and $8/$16 whenever I can find a good game. Actually, these good $5/$10 games are practically always better than any $2/$4 and $3/$6 games. At $3/$6 and below, there are lots of nitty TAG's who are just grinding. At $5/$10, there are many gamblers resulting in much better games.
I am also experimenting with playing a looser and more aggressive preflop style in 6-max. I used to play a simple TAG style, which is profitable with good table selection. But after watching a few interesting video's on DeucesCracked, I have decided to give this more LAG style a try. I already knew that at $15/$30 and above, the basic TAG style would be unable to yield much profit. But I always though that at $3/$6, this style would be unprofitable due to the high rake. Maybe I was wrong...
I am going to experiment with this style at $2/$4 for a while. I have now played around 1000 hands playing like this and the style feels right. Of course, I am still making some mistakes which are mostly due to the fact I am used to dealing with HU ranges, not tighter 6-max ranges. But I feel confident I can make the necessary adjustments. If this style works even at $2/$4, I'm just going to make this my basic 6-max style. This style does result in higher variance but the variance is still nothing compared to HU. Besides, playing like nit is just really boring. ;)
To summarize the benefits if this preflop style:
1) More fold equity postflop.
2) Opponents play more strait forward.
3) Get more action on your good hands due to a LAG table image.
4) Play more pots against bad players.
This style will put my VP$IP somewhere around 35% with a PFR of 25% (maybe even more). Quite a bit more LAG than my usual 25/18 style. I'm interested what my went to showdown percentage will be. I am perfectly capable of showing down 42% of my hands but I don't thing it will be that high, at least not at $2/$4. I suspect it will be something like 36% at $2/$4, adding an extra percent for every limit you go up. (depending on average table composition)
Long Time, No Blog
Date: Mon, May 12, 2008
It's been several months since my last confession. It turns out that maintaining a blog as easier when you are running good.
I played a lot of poker in January - March but without actually winning any money. I made the mistake of playing too much when I was working on lots of strategy stuff. In addition to play, the strategies I was working on were not 100% applicable at $2/$4 and $3/$6. Playing close to GTO (Game Theory Optimal) is not a losing strategy there but with the rake, there isn't that much room for profit. Typical low limit opponents themselves play quite far from correct, so you can actually deviate quite far from GTO play to make more profit. But these months have not been a complete waste. Quite the contrary, I learned a ton these months which is now paying of. Sometimes, you need to take one step back to make a few steps forward.
My main game is still Limit Hold'em, only now I play mostly heads-up. Mainly $5/$10 where I run over +5BB/100 over more than 8K hands. Still not a big enough sample size to say anything about my true winning rate but I think it's safe to assume I am a winning player there. This month, I am looking to make the transition to $8/$16. The decision to play heads-up is quite easy for me, as the games are good and my playing style is actually suited best for HU play.
I do play some 6-max occasionally. But only if I can find good tables ($2/$4 till $8/$16) where I can play a simple TAG style and grind a modest profit. If I can't find any good tables, I simply don't play.
I have also started learning all the other HORSE games. Only playing LHE for multiple hours a day is just a very sad existence. I don't think I can do that for long before having some kind of burn-out. By playing many different games, I have a wider table selection and I add more variety. I will wait with the other HORSE games untill I become proficient in both O8 and 7CS.
And learning other will make me a much better player overall. especially 7 Card Stud has many different concepts since the structure of the game is very different from Hold'em.
For instance, in SSH (Small Stakes Hold'em), the authors suggest sometimes waiting for the turn to protect your hand since protecting it on the flop is impossible (when the pot is big). This is a valid strategy, even though you will use it once every 50000 hands or so. But this strategy probably originated from 7CS, where you wait for 5th street to protect your hand. But the concept is much more valuable in 7CS for 2 reasons.
1) In 7CS when people fold on 5th, they cannot outdraw you on 6th and 7th. When waiting for the turn in Hold'em, you just prevent people from drawing out on the river. So in 7CS, you protect you hand more since you prevent people to outdraw you on two streets, not just one.
2) In 7CS, your equity when having the best hand against multiple opponents is not as high as is the case in Hold'em, especially against multiple opponents. You can easily be an underdog with the best hand on 5th against 3 opponents. Problem in 7CS is that every opponent is drawing separately, making it much more likely that someone actually hits something. This concept is also known as the Sklansky horse race concept. This makes protecting your hand in 7CS much more important.
One very important thing I found out when learning new games is that you need to find a good balance between playing and studying. In the very beginning, I think 100% studying is best. Reading books, watching video's, reviewing data-mined hands. Then when I have absorbed lots of information, the balance becomes something like 40% playing, 60% studying. And with studying I mean reviewing my own hands, re-reading relevant parts of the books. Then as time goes by, it becomes more and more play.
Another important thing when reading books and watching video's is that you must not make any big effort trying to remember anything. Whenever it's hard to remember something, you are probably not ready for that knowledge. Even if you manage to retain the information for a while, you will probably forget quite fast. Ideally, whenever you read (or see) something, the information makes perfect sense right away. Now, learning takes no effort whatsoever and you will probably never forget.
My Quest and the Sunday Million
Date: Mon, Dec 17, 2007
For the moment, I'm playing a mixture of $2/$4 and $3/$6. I'm pretty much break even over this month, down $600 on Full Tilt and Everest, but up roughly the same amount on Cake Poker. Still, with clearing bonuses and rakeback, I'm still building my bankroll. With a bankroll of approximately $4700 now, I can almost move up to $5/$10. I will be taking some shots at $5/$10 in the next week whenever I can find a good table and I'm playing my A-game.
Colombianitos Quest
I'm also going to do something for charity this month. I'm going to play 10000 hands on $0.25/$0.50 and donate my entire winnings to the Colombianitos project (see http://www.53offsuit.com/). I'm going to play 6 tables at a time to speed up things a bit. In addition to that, I'm also organizing a little side action to my quest. People can make a $5 bet on my ultimate winning rate after these 10000 hands. The winner takes half the price pool, the other half also goes to the Colombianitos project.
I'm also going to play the Sunday Million on PokerStars. The $215 buy-in is actually way outside of my bankroll but I won a tournament ticket in December's edition of the ITH league. However, I want to play some smaller tourney first before I take a shot since my MTT game is pretty rusty, not having played any in the last two months. Also, I want to study the tournament structure and pay-out structure before I actually play the event. I think that having a shot in suck a big tourney and then not prepare adequately is pretty stupid. The tourney starts with 10000 chips and 25/50 blinds, meaning you start with 200 big blinds. (In a 'normal' tourney, you start with 75 big blinds)
Ohama: Strait Wraps
Date: Wed, Nov 14, 2007
To play any poker game, you always have to know the current strength of your hand. In Omaha, a good draw can easily be a favorite against a made hand, even top set. For Hold'em players who are venturing into Omaha (like me), strait wraps are probably the most elusive hands. They can be very powerful, especially in combination with a flush draw. Or even having a pair with you strait draw may give you the current best hand, or at least 2 outs to trips (which may become a full) which may win you the pot. In the following article, I will evaluate all possible strait 3-way strait wraps and determine exactly how many outs they have. And how many of these outs are to the nuts.
The following simulations will describe the absolute value of the hand. All hands and board are rainbow so no flushes are possible. As how to actually play these hands is a total different story.
(3 up)
Board: A76
Hand: T983
13 outs - 13 nut.
T (x3) Nuts
9 (x3) Nuts
8 (x3) Nuts
5 (x4) Nuts
(2 up, 1 down)
Board: A76
Hand: 985Q
17 outs - 11 nut.
T (x4) Nuts
9 (x3)
8 (x3)
5 (x3) Nuts
4 (x4) Nuts
(1 up, 2 down)
Board: A76
Hand: 854Q
17 outs - 7 nut.
9 (x4)
8 (x3)
5 (x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
(3 down)
Board: A76
Hand: 543Q
13 outs - 3 nut.
8 (x4)
5 (x3)
4 (x3)
3 (x3) Nuts
(2 up, 1 middle)
Board: A64
Hand: 875Q
13 outs - 13 nut.
8 (x3) Nuts
7 (x3) Nuts
5 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
(1 up, 2 middle)
Board: A74
Hand: 865Q
13 outs - 13 nut.
8 (x3) Nuts
6 (x3) Nuts
5 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
(3 middle)
Board: A84
Hand: 765Q
9 outs - 9 nut.
7 (x3) Nuts
6 (x3) Nuts
5 (x3) Nuts
(2 middle, 1 down)
Board: A85
Hand: 764Q
13 outs - 7 nut.
9 (x4) Nuts
7 (x3)
6 (x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
(1 middle, 2 down)
Board: A86
Hand: 754Q
13 outs - 3 nut.
9 (x4)
7 (x3)
5(x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
(1 up, 1 middle, 1 down)
Board: A75
Hand 864Q
17 outs - 11 nut.
9 (x4) Nuts
8 (x3)
6 (x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
Having extra value in addition to a strait wrap can greatly enhance you hand value. If you are up against a another draw who doesn't have a made hand yet, you will win if two blanks fall on the turn and river. Even in the situation described above, against top set, having a pair will yield 1-2% equity since you take away one of his outs. And having a flush draw may also win you the pot. Even if your opponent has a bigger flush draw, you take away two of his outs which will give you around 8% equity extra. Even having a backdoor flush draw will give you a few percent equity extra. Of course, We are not looking at redraw possibilities here but hopefully, by being aggressive on the flop, we will get rid of these longshots.
All 3-way wraps have between 40% and 50% equity on the flop against top set (everything rainbow) which is quite a lot for just a strait draw.
A 2-way wrap is obviously a simple OESD (open end strait draw) with 8 outs (8 nut outs for the upper draw and 4 nut outs for the other draws). 4-way wraps are even more powerful but also much rarer. These usually have a few outs more with even 22 outs for 8743 on a 56x board. On the other hand, they cannot have a pair so you have no chance to win unimproved.
(3 up, 0 middle, 0 down): 13 outs - 13 nut.
(2 up, 0 middle, 1 down): 17 outs - 11 nut.
(1 up, 0 middle, 2 down): 17 outs - 7 nut.
(0 up, 0 middle, 3 down): 13 outs - 3 nut.
(2 up, 1 middle), 0 down): 13 outs - 13 nut.
(1 up, 2 middle, 0 down): 13 outs - 13 nut.
(0 up, 3 middle) 0 down): 9 outs - 9 nut.
(0 up, 2 middle, 1 down): 13 outs - 7 nut.
(0 up, 1 middle, 2 down): 13 outs - 3 nut.
(1 up, 1 middle, 1 down): 17 outs - 11 nut.
Ohama: Strait Wraps
Date: Wed, Nov 14, 2007
To play any poker game, you always have to know the current strength of your hand. In Omaha, a good draw can easily be a favorite against a made hand, even top set. For Hold'em players who are venturing into Omaha (like me), strait wraps are probably the most elusive hands. They can be very powerful, especially in combination with a flush draw. Or even having a pair with you strait draw may give you the current best hand, or at least 2 outs to trips (which may become a full) which may win you the pot. In the following article, I will evaluate all possible strait 3-way strait wraps and determine exactly how many outs they have. And how many of these outs are to the nuts.
The following simulations will describe the absolute value of the hand. All hands and board are rainbow so no flushes are possible. As how to actually play these hands is a total different story.
(3 up)
Board: A76
Hand: T983
13 outs - 13 nut.
T (x3) Nuts
9 (x3) Nuts
8 (x3) Nuts
5 (x4) Nuts
(2 up, 1 down)
Board: A76
Hand: 985Q
17 outs - 11 nut.
T (x4) Nuts
9 (x3)
8 (x3)
5 (x3) Nuts
4 (x4) Nuts
(1 up, 2 down)
Board: A76
Hand: 854Q
17 outs - 7 nut.
9 (x4)
8 (x3)
5 (x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
(3 down)
Board: A76
Hand: 543Q
13 outs - 3 nut.
8 (x4)
5 (x3)
4 (x3)
3 (x3) Nuts
(2 up, 1 middle)
Board: A64
Hand: 875Q
13 outs - 13 nut.
8 (x3) Nuts
7 (x3) Nuts
5 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
(1 up, 2 middle)
Board: A74
Hand: 865Q
13 outs - 13 nut.
8 (x3) Nuts
6 (x3) Nuts
5 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
(3 middle)
Board: A84
Hand: 765Q
9 outs - 9 nut.
7 (x3) Nuts
6 (x3) Nuts
5 (x3) Nuts
(2 middle, 1 down)
Board: A85
Hand: 764Q
13 outs - 7 nut.
9 (x4) Nuts
7 (x3)
6 (x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
(1 middle, 2 down)
Board: A86
Hand: 754Q
13 outs - 3 nut.
9 (x4)
7 (x3)
5(x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
(1 up, 1 middle, 1 down)
Board: A75
Hand 864Q
17 outs - 11 nut.
9 (x4) Nuts
8 (x3)
6 (x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
Having extra value in addition to a strait wrap can greatly enhance you hand value. If you are up against a another draw who doesn't have a made hand yet, you will win if two blanks fall on the turn and river. Even in the situation described above, against top set, having a pair will yield 1-2% equity since you take away one of his outs. And having a flush draw may also win you the pot. Even if your opponent has a bigger flush draw, you take away two of his outs which will give you around 8% equity extra. Even having a backdoor flush draw will give you a few percent equity extra. Of course, We are not looking at redraw possibilities here but hopefully, by being aggressive on the flop, we will get rid of these longshots.
All 3-way wraps have between 40% and 50% equity on the flop against top set (everything rainbow) which is quite a lot for just a strait draw.
A 2-way wrap is obviously a simple OESD (open end strait draw) with 8 outs (8 nut outs for the upper draw and 4 nut outs for the other draws). 4-way wraps are even more powerful but also much rarer. These usually have a few outs more with even 22 outs for 8743 on a 56x board. On the other hand, they cannot have a pair so you have no chance to win unimproved.
(3 up, 0 middle, 0 down): 13 outs - 13 nut.
(2 up, 0 middle, 1 down): 17 outs - 11 nut.
(1 up, 0 middle, 2 down): 17 outs - 7 nut.
(0 up, 0 middle, 3 down): 13 outs - 3 nut.
(2 up, 1 middle), 0 down): 13 outs - 13 nut.
(1 up, 2 middle, 0 down): 13 outs - 13 nut.
(0 up, 3 middle) 0 down): 9 outs - 9 nut.
(0 up, 2 middle, 1 down): 13 outs - 7 nut.
(0 up, 1 middle, 2 down): 13 outs - 3 nut.
(1 up, 1 middle, 1 down): 17 outs - 11 nut.
Ohama: Strait Wraps
Date: Wed, Nov 14, 2007
To play any poker game, you always have to know the current strength of your hand. In Omaha, a good draw can easily be a favorite against a made hand, even top set. For Hold'em players who are venturing into Omaha (like me), strait wraps are probably the most elusive hands. They can be very powerful, especially in combination with a flush draw. Or even having a pair with you strait draw may give you the current best hand, or at least 2 outs to trips (which may become a full) which may win you the pot. In the following article, I will evaluate all possible strait 3-way strait wraps and determine exactly how many outs they have. And how many of these outs are to the nuts.
The following simulations will describe the absolute value of the hand. All hands and board are rainbow so no flushes are possible. As how to actually play these hands is a total different story.
(3 up)
Board: A76
Hand: T983
13 outs - 13 nut.
T (x3) Nuts
9 (x3) Nuts
8 (x3) Nuts
5 (x4) Nuts
(2 up, 1 down)
Board: A76
Hand: 985Q
17 outs - 11 nut.
T (x4) Nuts
9 (x3)
8 (x3)
5 (x3) Nuts
4 (x4) Nuts
(1 up, 2 down)
Board: A76
Hand: 854Q
17 outs - 7 nut.
9 (x4)
8 (x3)
5 (x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
(3 down)
Board: A76
Hand: 543Q
13 outs - 3 nut.
8 (x4)
5 (x3)
4 (x3)
3 (x3) Nuts
(2 up, 1 middle)
Board: A64
Hand: 875Q
13 outs - 13 nut.
8 (x3) Nuts
7 (x3) Nuts
5 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
(1 up, 2 middle)
Board: A74
Hand: 865Q
13 outs - 13 nut.
8 (x3) Nuts
6 (x3) Nuts
5 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
(3 middle)
Board: A84
Hand: 765Q
9 outs - 9 nut.
7 (x3) Nuts
6 (x3) Nuts
5 (x3) Nuts
(2 middle, 1 down)
Board: A85
Hand: 764Q
13 outs - 7 nut.
9 (x4) Nuts
7 (x3)
6 (x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
(1 middle, 2 down)
Board: A86
Hand: 754Q
13 outs - 3 nut.
9 (x4)
7 (x3)
5(x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
(1 up, 1 middle, 1 down)
Board: A75
Hand 864Q
17 outs - 11 nut.
9 (x4) Nuts
8 (x3)
6 (x3)
4 (x3) Nuts
3 (x4) Nuts
Having extra value in addition to a strait wrap can greatly enhance you hand value. If you are up against a another draw who doesn't have a made hand yet, you will win if two blanks fall on the turn and river. Even in the situation described above, against top set, having a pair will yield 1-2% equity since you take away one of his outs. And having a flush draw may also win you the pot. Even if your opponent has a bigger flush draw, you take away two of his outs which will give you around 8% equity extra. Even having a backdoor flush draw will give you a few percent equity extra. Of course, We are not looking at redraw possibilities here but hopefully, by being aggressive on the flop, we will get rid of these longshots.
All 3-way wraps have between 40% and 50% equity on the flop against top set (everything rainbow) which is quite a lot for just a strait draw.
A 2-way wrap is obviously a simple OESD (open end strait draw) with 8 outs (8 nut outs for the upper draw and 4 nut outs for the other draws). 4-way wraps are even more powerful but also much rarer. These usually have a few outs more with even 22 outs for 8743 on a 56x board. On the other hand, they cannot have a pair so you have no chance to win unimproved.
(3 up, 0 middle, 0 down): 13 outs - 13 nut.
(2 up, 0 middle, 1 down): 17 outs - 11 nut.
(1 up, 0 middle, 2 down): 17 outs - 7 nut.
(0 up, 0 middle, 3 down): 13 outs - 3 nut.
(2 up, 1 middle), 0 down): 13 outs - 13 nut.
(1 up, 2 middle, 0 down): 13 outs - 13 nut.
(0 up, 3 middle) 0 down): 9 outs - 9 nut.
(0 up, 2 middle, 1 down): 13 outs - 7 nut.
(0 up, 1 middle, 2 down): 13 outs - 3 nut.
(1 up, 1 middle, 1 down): 17 outs - 11 nut.
October results
Date: Wed, Oct 31, 2007
Just a quick update regarding my results for the month October. This month, I made the step up to $3/$6 and fortunately enough, I started winning right off the bat. I played a mixture of $1/$2, $2/$4 and $3/$6 shorthanded and some $1/$2 Full Ring. I averaged +1.29BB/100hands (without rakeback or bonus) over 12163 hands resulting in a net result of +$823. My most profitable month thus far.
Also, I payed $1081.60 worth of rake on Full Tilt of which I will get back 27% which equals to $292. I also cleared $480 of my $600 deposit bonus which accounts for a portion of my bankroll growth.
As for the immediate future. I intend to clear the remaining $120 sign-up bonus on Full Tilt. After that, I plan to sign up on Cake Poker who have a $500 sign-up bonus and also give 33% rakeback (using the ITH offer). When I have cleared that bonus, I hope to be properly bankrolled for $5/$10.
Willem's Poker Blog - 2007-10-12
Date: Fri, Oct 12, 2007
It's been awhile since my last update. The last few week were pretty uneventful in terms of results, with my bankroll somewhere in the vicinity of $2600. I am completely ignoring short term results so I cannot be more specific. Part of the reason why I don't have many results is that, for the last few weeks, I put in a lot of time studying the game. Maybe even 50% playing, 50% studying. I am playing $2/$4 LHE 6-max now mostly. With my bankroll boost a month ago, I essentially skipped $1/$2.
I glad to see that I am still making excellent progress improving my game. The development of a lot of players stagnates at some point I actually think the rate at which I am progressing is accelerating. And, perhaps the most important thing, I'm enjoying the game more than ever.
Ever since I won a $12-180 Sit&Go, I never played a Sit&Go or MTT again. Although playing these might be the best way to build my bankroll, I just felt more like playing LHE cash games. I'm not playing to build my bankroll, I'm playing to enjoy myself and to improve my game, the money usually follows.
Because I don't want to get stuck in Limit Hold'em, which seems to be dying, I'm always on the lookout for new games to play. People say that PLO is the cash game of the future so it makes sense to start learning the game sooner rather than later. Omaha is a lot more difficult than hold'em so you can get a bigger edge over your opponents which makes the game more profitable. I think it's going to take a significant amount of time to learn the game and to get used to the huge swings the game has. Still, I like the game and I plan to put in enough effort to get started in the game (LHE will still be my main focus for the time being).
The Negative Freeroll in Limit Hold'em
Date: Thu, Oct 4, 2007
Everyone knows what a freeroll is. A typical example is a so called freeroll tournament. These are tournaments without an entry fee, but with real cash payouts. A freeroll is essentially a situation where you have nothing to lose, but can still win. A negative freeroll then is exactly the opposite, it's a situation where you can only lose, but never win. So, where does such a situation occur in Limit Hold'em?
This scenario typically occurs in a heads-up pot, when you are first to act. You have a decent hand like middle pair with a decent kicker and you suspect your opponent also has a pair, but you don't know what pair. If you check the action to him, he will likely bet top pair and check behind weaker pairs. So, if you check, you will lose one bet if he has a better hand while you win nothing if he has a worse hand. You are essentially giving your opponent a freeroll, he can bet if he has a good hand and check behind if he has a weak hand. This freeroll is negative for you, hence the term "negative freeroll"
The solution is to simply bet out, without knowing whether you have the best hand or not. This way, you lose one bet to a better hand. But you would lose that bet anyway, even if you check and call. Only now, you will win a bet in case you have the best hand, a bet you wouldn't have won if you had checked.
This situation occurs frequently when you are playing against loose-passive players, also knows as calling stations. Calling station usually calls down with any pair, in which case it is hard to know if you have the best hand or not when you have a medium strength hand, like second pair. If you are out of position against such a player with a medium strength hand, you should usually bet every street. You may lose if he accidentally has a better hand but you will win more in the long run by collecting calls from even worse hands.
Of course, if you have second pair and check the action to someone, and you know for certain that he will only bet top pair or better, then you can safely fold any hand worse than top pair. The problem is that even loose-passive players will bet more hands than that when you check to them. Especially if you checked and folded a couple of times in earlier hands. In that case, even loose-passive players will 'adjust' and start betting every hand when you check to them. By check-folding often, you are essentially conditioning them to bluff, which is never a good thing. You want you opponents to be predictable, so you know what their actions mean so can make good decisions.
Preflop: (10 players) Hero is MP(middle position) with 9h 9c
5 folds, you raise, 1 fold, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.
Button here is a loose-passive player who calls down with any pair.
Flop: Kc 8d 2h (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bet, Button calls, BB folds.
Turn: 6h (2 players)
Hero bet, Button calls.
River: 3h (2 players)
Hero bet, Button calls.
By not betting the turn and river here, you would be giving your opponent a freeroll. You can easily lose here if your opponent has a king, but since he a calling station, he can easily have a seven, a deuce, a smaller pocket pair or maybe even ace high. If you check the action to him, he will probably bet if he has top pair and check behind if he has a worse hand. By betting yourself, you win money from worse hands (like A7 or 55) which you wouldn't win if you check. If you bet and he raises, then you have an easy fold. A passive opponent is not going to raise here without top pair at least. Against top pair, you have just 2 outs to improve (5% chance) so this would be a very easy fold.
Preflop: (10 players) Hero is BB with Jh 8d
7 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero checks.
Again, the opponent is a loose-passive player who calls down with any pair.
Flop: Qh 8c 5c (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.
Turn: 2s (2 players)
Hero bet, Button calls.
River: Kh (2 players)
Hero bet, Button calls.
Again, you could easily lose here if your opponent has a pair of queens, or a pair of eights with a better kicker. Still, you should bet every street to also collect bets in case you have the best hand. He will fold on the river if he was drawing to a flush but you will still collect a bet from a worse hand, maybe even from a hand like Ac 7c. Again, you have an easy fold if he raises.
While this strategy is good when you are facing one or perhaps two loose-passive players, it is less useful against tight and/or aggressive opponents.
Against aggressive opponents, you should frequently call down if you are raised, especially if the board contains many draws. Alternatively, you may want to check and call to induce bluffs from an aggressive opponent.
Against tight opponents, you have less chance to have the best hand. This is because a tight opponent will not call down down with a weak pair. If it's very likely you are behind, then you might be better of just checking and folding. On the other hand, if the board contains many draws and a tight opponent is calling you down, then you can be fairly sure he is drawing. In this case, you should still bet the turn but you may want to check and call the river to induce a bluff.
An eventful couple of weeks
Date: Sat, Sep 22, 2007
Last two weeks have been pretty eventful so I am making an early update. I have been running very well the last 3 weeks.
I have stepped up to $1/$2 (6-max obviously) and, as opposed to what usually happens when you step up, I'm running very well the first 2.5K hands. I averaged +5.2BB/100hands which results in $260 profit. Of course, this winning rate is just the upper side of variance but it's still nice to start with a winning streak as opposed to a losing streak. I think I can average +2BB/100hands here since I feel I have a decent edge over my opponents.
I've also started playing multi-table Sit&Go's. I've played 2-table, 3-table, 5-table and 20-table Sit&Go's in the $3-$10 buy-in area. Done pretty well in these with several wins in the 2 and 3 table MTT's, five 2nd places in 5-table MTT's, and one very nice win of a $4-180 MTT worth $216. Also came in 4th twice the these $4-180 MTT's.
I have also opened up a new account on Full Tilt as part of a staking deal I received from ITH member taz115. He puts in $600 while I put in $300. I will build that up to $2500 (or $2000) after which I pay back 60% of the bankroll to him. This way, I can create a foothold on Full Tilt without much investment on my part.
I'm also receiving tutoring from Ian Taylor (Piemaster on ITH and co-author of the Poker Mindset). I received this tutoring as gift from taz115 for my active participation on ITH over the last year. He already reviewed one of my sessions and provided some very valuable feedback.
Milestone
Date: Wed, Sep 12, 2007
This week, I finally broke through the $1000 barrier. It took me 9 months to go from $50 to $1000. Most of that profit comes from LHE cash games, $0.25/$0.50 Full Ring for the first few months, $0.25/$0.50 6-max after that and $0.50/$1 6-max for the last few months. Around $90 also came from the last 2 weeks playing Sit&Go's (single table and multi table). My bankroll now is a healthy $1000. It's a great feeling to finally be winning again after breaking even for 2 months strait.
I've also adopted a new philosophy. I play the types of games I feel like playing and don't worry about growing my bankroll anymore. This means that I sometimes play two (or more) limits below what my bankroll can stand. A few months ago, this was unthinkable. I didn't want to play at lower limits because I feared my bankroll wouldn't grow as fast. While this is true to some extend, it's also very short sighted. You can still make some profit at the lower limit, it helps to boost your confidence and you can still learn a ton there. By playing also at lower limits, I play better and more confidently at my usual limit. For a few months, I was 'trapped' in playing $0.5/$1 6-max exclusively, now I'm free.
I'm also continuing to make excellent progress developing my game. My sessions with another ITH member definitely help in this regard. Besides learning things from him, it also stimulates more thinking about the game which is perhaps even more important. Playing other games, like LHE FR, NL10 FR, S&G's, also increase my understanding of the game. It forces you to look at the game from another angle which can be very refreshing. I find that I am finally beginning to understand the game. Instead of knowing nothing, I now know something.
I've also become much stronger mentally which is just as important as the technical aspects of the game. Developing a good poker mindset sounds easy but in reality, it takes a lot of practice. One thing that helps me is that I don't look at short term results anymore. I just make sure I am playing within my bankroll and play the games I feel like playing. Someone once wrote that statistics are the only thing keeping him sane, for me it's just the opposite. By focusing on short term results, you focus on something you cannot control. It only serves to create an emotional state, whether that is positive or negative.
My plan for the future is just to keep having fun while playing and let the money take care of itself. Since my bankroll now allows $1/$2 6-max LHE, I will start to play this limit occasionally. I will also focus on developing my Sit&Go game. I like playing these and there is still a lot of room for improvement there. I also need to focus more on developing my NL cash game. There are still plenty of NL games while the limit games are drying up. Switching to NL cash will be unavoidable but I think I can wait for a few months before really putting in an effort.
Current bankroll(approximately): $1000(PokerStars) + $80(PartPoker)
July Results
Date: Thu, Aug 2, 2007
It has been a rough month. Net result of only approx. +40BB. Still, better than losing. When you are not showing any real profit, grinding really becomes tedious. Although I still have a decent edge in the games I play, I think it makes sense to start seeking out new frontiers.
When looking at my motivation to play poker, its mostly winning money that's fun. The game itself is also definitely fun but if you have nothing to show after a while, it appears to become futile and I lose interest. Limit Holdem is getting tougher and tougher and I don't want to get stuck there. Maybe I can work my way up to $5/$10 but I doubt I will be more than a marginal winner there. I think it makes more sense to gradually include other forms of poker in my game selection. And since I mostly like winning money, it makes sense to seek out the weakest possible opposition. MTT's are by far the most popular type of game, meaning the concentration of fish is highest. So I have decided to shift my attention to MTT's also. I plan on playing around 80% LHE cash games and 20% NLHE tournaments, depending on my mood and available games. I think that in the future, my focus will eventually shift more towards MTT's. In a few months, I hope to play something like 50/50 LHE cash and MTT's.
As far as I'm concerned, I plan on playing the $3 rebuy satellites mostly. The flat pay-out structure combined with the huge amount of dead money being pumped in the price-pool by donkeys who rebuy too often make these my most EV+ choice for the moment. I will also use my FPP's to play as many satellites to the $11 tourneys. These STT satellites are very soft and I can't think of a better way to spend my FPP's anyway.
Current Bankroll: $790
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