Writing a Book with Dusty

Date: Sun, Jun 8, 2008 Professional Internet

I am excited to announce that Dusty and I are writing a book. As many of you know from Dusty’s blog, I am in Portland visiting with him. Over the past few days, we’ve been able to iron out the details of a book that we’ve been considering for the past couple months. It was such a cool moment yesterday when it all came together. We want to make this book remarkable and until then, weren’t sure how.

The intent is to provide the definitive source for poker mental game instruction, with the added bonus of Dusty providing the best NL instruction in print. It will be informative and entertaining, and show a unique glimpse into the minds of one of top poker players. You’ll get an in depth look at how he made significant progress in my program; understand the talents that makes him a top player and more importantly, how you can acquire those skills. Many of you have asked Dusty, “How he is able to grind so many hands?” The question that you really want answered is, “How I can become a grinder?” In the book I’ll show you how.

I’ve had the desire to write a book for awhile. I actually started a book on the mental side of golf a couple years ago, but I wasn’t ready. My program was just getting started and though my clients were having success that didn’t mean that I was ready for a bigger stage. It was pretty painful to come to the realization then that what I had written was total crap. I’ve long felt like I could do some really cool things in this world and to see myself failing was tough to swallow. It took some time and help from my family to understand that it just came down to the fact that there was more I needed to learn.

I’ve learned what I needed to on the coaching side to write this book. My program is solid and now my focus is on becoming a great writer. I’m a good writer and I’m going to work hard to be a great one. I love this Jordan commercial, because it reminds me of the work that’s require to achieve greatness.

At some point, Dusty and I want to get all of you involved in this book. We’re not sure how yet, but your input will be greatly appreciated.

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Running Good Again In Life

Date: Sun, Jun 8, 2008 Professional Internet

Jared and I were doing some joking around during my recent poker sessions this week and we came up with a realization. I have spent way more time bitching about running bad and not as much time talking about when I run well because I have long been afraid of flaunting success to the poker Gods. Of course, it is crazy that I even think that poker Gods even exist, but just on the .01% chance that they do, I have been afraid to post about how well I run at times for fear that I am flaunting it in their face and they will soon make me pay dearly for that. Then Jared made a half joking point that totally makes sense. Maybe the reason they treat me so poorly at times is because I am usually speaking poorly of them and rarely ever giving them credit when credit is due. So with that I would like to personally thank the poker Gods and give them their due credit for this run.

I have run so stupid good it’s almost laughable this month. It hasn’t necessarily gone well at the higher stakes as you can see, but this is easily my best run of my life at 5/10nl. And this is over a pretty decent sample size as well so I am pretty fired up. As you guys know I have recommitted myself since my trip to California and good play plus running hot has paid off quite nicely. It has helped me recover from a longish dry spell and once again has me fired up about poker. I have made quite a few changes in the way I play as well and there is no doubt that a decent amount of this recent success is attributable to my improved play. I was playing well before this run, but now I can officially say that I have improved my game a fair amount.

Having Jared in town has been a lot of fun. Chamber’s Bay was not quite as good as we had hoped. Chamber’s is slated to host the 2015 US Open and I am a little concerned that it may be disappointing to some. It is a very good golf course, but not quite as good as I was expecting. All 3 courses at Bandon Dunes are better than Chambers in my opinion. That may have been the problem though for us as we were judging Chamber’s in relation to Bandon, which are all incredible courses, because they are owned by the same company and they are both right on the water. Chamber’s is newer though and it is very possible that enough improvements will happen that make it as good as some of the Bandon courses so we will just have to wait and see.

Today we played Pumpkin Ridge which is my home course and had a blast. The course has finally recovered from a very long winter and was in great shape. Jared played well for his first time around the course and shot a 74 with bogies on the last two holes. He smoked me and took me for $20. I shot 78 and struggled with my game some….sigh. I guess I am a poker pro now and not a pro golfer anymore so what can I expect? I still hit a lot of quality shots, but not with the consistency that I used to. I think if I focused on my game for a month I could be right back to where I used to be and maybe someday I will do that. Right now though I have too good of a gig with poker so golf aspirations will have to remain on hold indefinitely until the time is right if ever.

www.10thgreen.com is coming along well too. We have been working on it quite a bit lately and I truly believe with all of my heart that someday it will become THE PLACE to visit for all serious golfers. I truly think it has that potential. I am very entrepreneurial by nature and am excited that I have a home run of an idea. I have invested significant resources into this project and if it turns out to be a big flop, it won’t be for lack of effort. With any new idea where you are trying to create a market where a market currently doesn’t exist, there is a ton of risk involved, but I feel like if there was ever going to be something to take a risk on, www.10thgreeen.com is it. Wish me luck.

After golf today we went to Portland City Grill which is my favorite restaurant in Portland. My wife couldn’t make it so it was just Jared and me that went. After having such a great trip and running so well, we decided to baller it up a little bit and each order some Remy Martin Louis XIII Cognac . I normally don’t splurge on stuff like that, but I figured it was worth it considering you only go around once and I had never tried anything like that. So I guess I can cross that off of my “Bucket List.” Bucket List is a great movie btw. The drink cost $130…lol. The first half of the drink I thought was a little brutal to just sip as it is quite strong, but by the last half I sort of started to acquire a taste for it and then it was absolutely awesome. I am totally glad I tried it. I may not order it again for a very long time, but am glad I ordered it tonight. It is definitely worth a shot if you are looking to ball it up. The food was amazing as per usual and Jared and I had a great conversation. Jared and I have become very good friends as of late. I have blogged before about how happy I am to have made so many great friends over the last few years. Good friends are not always easy to find, but over the last few years I have made several including my best friend of all, my wife.

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Matt Blogs the WSOP: Event 9, $1,500 Six-Handed No Limit Hold 'Em

Date: Fri, Jun 6, 2008 Professional Internet

Well, unfortunately it didn't happen for me today. Here's a rundown of the hands.

Peter Marr (good internet player) is on my left. Avery Cardoza (who I just met the day before, but who certainly plays well enough) is two to my right. Both have chips, and both are clearly playing to win. In fact, our table probably has more chips than any other table.

800-1600 blinds, 200 antes.

Hand 1: Avery opens for 4k in the cutoff. I make it 13k in the small blind with AcJh. Peter calls 13k cold. Avery folds. Flop comes J93 with two spades. Check, check. Turn comes 2s. I bet 18k. Peter calls. River comes Qs. I check. Peter moves all-in. I fold. Peter shows AsJc.

Hand 2: The button limps. I limp in the SB with 66. Peter makes it 8,900 in the big blind. Button folds, I call. Flop comes 422. Check, check. Turn is the 9s, bringing a two-flush. I bet 13k, Peter calls. River is the Qs. I bet 16k. Peter calls. My hand is good (he claims to have had AK, and I believe him).

Hand 3: Avery opens on the button for 4500. (Avery has opened the button literally every time it has folded to him.) Small blind folds, I call with 4d3d. The flop comes 952 with two diamonds. I check. Avery bets 8k. I make it 25k. Avery moves in for 40k more. I call. He has KK. Despite hitting a 3 on the turn, I do not win.

Hand 4: Very next hand. Avery opens in the cutoff for 4k. I call in the small blind with 77. Peter calls in the big blind. Flop comes J82. Checked around. Turn is a king. Checked around. River is a seven. I bet 8k. Peter makes it 20k. Avery folds. I move in for 50k more. Peter calls and I win. (Peter shows KJ.)

Hand 5: Very next hand. Folds to me on the button, I make it 5k with KhQh. Peter makes it 16.5k. Big blind folds, I move him in for 58k more. Peter calls with AJo. Flop comes AKK. Turn A. River Q.

1000-2000, 300 ante.

Hand 6: Folds to me in the small blind and I make it 6k with Jc4c. Peter calls. Flop comes 972 with two clubs. I check, Peter bets 11.5k. I move in for 68k. Peter folds.

Hand 7: Avery opens on the button for 5500. I call in the big blind with T9o. Flop comes A94. Check-check. Turn comes 2. I check, Avery bets 8k, I call. River comes 9. I check, Avery bets 13k. I make it 35k. Avery moves me in for 45k more. I call, he shows me AA and I'm done.

I'll post a few thoughts on these hands, as well as an overall report on the other events, later. For now I'll just say that I probably could've played the last hand a little better, but I was destined to lose a ton of chips on it (if not necessarily all of them). The rest of the hands I think I did fine. Oh well. I'm going to play the $2,500 NL tomorrow. Another day, another tournament.

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Bryce's favourite experience of England

Date: Fri, Jun 6, 2008 Professional Internet

Everyone had a monocle and top hat.

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Matt Blogs the WSOP: (Sort of)

Date: Fri, Jun 6, 2008 Professional Internet

I'm sorry I haven't been posting more, but I played 12-hour days on Tuesday and Wednesday without cashing, and was exhausted at the end of each. I played 12 hours+ again today, but luckily this time I ran like God and I now have three times the average chip stack going into day two of the $1,500 shorthanded NL Hold 'Em event.

I promise I'll do a better write-up of everything later, but for now I need to get some sleep.

OK, one hand.

Blinds 100-200, the cutoff opens for 550. I call in the small blind with 55, the big blind calls. The flop comes 655. Check, check, the raiser bets 1,000. I make it 2,700. Big blind folds, raiser makes it 6,500. I think for a while and then call. Turn is a 7. I check. Raiser moves me in for 7,500. I call (of course), and he has J9. I think maybe he picked up a flush draw on the turn or something.

Long long way to go, of course. I'm gonna give it my best shot.

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Engaged

Date: Thu, Jun 5, 2008 Professional Internet

Hahaha, I am not engaged, however two of my three brothers got engaged in the past month. I think it will be cool having sisters as I grew up in a household of 4 boys, myself being the youngest. The girls are amazing so I am real happy with my brothers' decisions, I have gotten to know the girls for quite some time already.

As for myself, I just got back from Nashville, TN on a business trip for my internship. Needless to say the car ride was long and it was very hot. I am very excited to be back. I am missing all my friends at home and cannot wait to try getting home July 4th to see everyone if I can. I just count down the days until I get to go home or get back to Penn State.

As for poker, it has been the same deal, I have not had much time to log many hands but have done well when I have had the chance. Other than that I hope everyone is doing well and I will keep trying to update the blog on a weekly basis.

-Presh

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Halfway To My Month End Goal!

Date: Thu, Jun 5, 2008 Professional Internet

This month has continued to go well in terms of “points” accumulated. For those that may have missed my last blog, I am referring to $ as points from now on so that money is hopefully disassociated from my main objective which is to shatter the goals I set for myself. After having poor months especially in April and May, I decided to set a modest goal of making 100k points in June. Normally 100k points is the bare minimum for what I would consider a successful month, but sometimes it is best I feel to set more attainable goals and then sort of rebuild to what the ultimate goal is. So far I am over half way there through just 4 days! I have earned about 51k points so far this month. Obviously at this point it looks like I will break my goal quite easily, but last month I was up over 30k points after the very first day and with 5 days to go in the month, was back to being up only 10k points so I am certainly not going to get ahead of myself or get too confident.

I am too short on time, so I’m not going to post a screenshot, but so far this month I have played 22k hands at 5/10nl and am up 50k points for a WR of like 13ptbb/100. I’m pretty sure it is the best run of my life at 5/10nl. But like I said before, I can’t get too far ahead of myself or too confident. The idea is to simply play my very best each and every hand and so long as I get a fair shake card wise, by the end of the month everything should take care of itself. It is very difficult to play when running bad and oddly enough, running well poses its own sort of challenges. It is easy to start calling too light because you think you will suck out by the river or start playing too many hands preflop because you are “hot.” It is also easy to get lazy in your mental process or have the urge to end sessions early because you have already made so much money. So far I haven’t even blinked this month and have focused on every single hand. I have also played much longer sessions than usual because running well is fun and I have missed enjoying poker. So I guess I would have to give myself an A++ this month for sticking to my mental process.

Jared is at my house and is currently wrapping up a session with another top pro he is working with. He seems to be an awfully busy guy lately as the demand for his lessons has been a bit overwhelming for him. The feedback he is getting is tremendous and I have only heard great things from those who have worked with him. I will have to say that I couldn’t have possibly foreseen this. When I started talking to him last summer, I did so because I knew that the worst thing that could happen is I lose a few hundred dollars that I would’ve paid him for his services. As a golfer I always wanted to work with a mental game coach because I have always been a basket case under pressure as most people are. So I figured that if it will work for golf it will probably work for poker so I may as well give it a shot. Fast forward to today and every single even mildly important decision I have has been affected by my new mental process that we have developed together. The benefits have been tremendous. What separates the also rans from the superstars in just about any sport is almost always the space between your ears. Do you think that it was Michael Jordan’s overwhelming physical stature that made him the best? No way Jose. How about Wayne Gretzky? Roger Federer? You see where I am going with this? To be the best requires the ultimate combination of physical and mental prowess. In poker it is your mental and your mental except there are two types of mental as you know. I may never fundamentally be the best poker player, but if I can mentally be the best, then that will always count for a lot.

Well, we are off to Chamber’s Bay in Washington. I can’t wait. It promises to be an absolute blast. I am also just looking forward to the car ride there and back. I love the camaraderie that is associated with taking a little road trip with good friends. All in all it should be a great day and I look forward to wirting about it in the next day or two.

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Poker Update And A Few Random Thoughts

Date: Wed, Jun 4, 2008 Professional Internet

So far this month I have run pretty well and as a result I have played a ton of hands. I have greatly missed poker these last 3 months. Like I have said before, poker has not gone “normally” for like 3 months now. What I mean by that is every month I have had a extremely long break even streak and one massive week that saved the day. I enjoy poker when I more or less steadily accumulate chips and I use that term very loosely. Basically I have no problem tossing 1-2 20k hand break even streaks combined with some nice little upticks here and there and the end result is that I get somewhere around my expectation. What drives me nuts is when I break even for 75k hands and then make $100k in like 20k hands. While in the end in that scenario I would earn my expectation, I have basically ran bad for 75% of my poker and that is just not a lot of fun. I know my ideal scenario is unrealistic and there is no way every month can or will pan out that way, but nonetheless I am quite pleased when the months do shake out in a way that is relatively stress free.

So far this month I have played 20k hands and am up 26k “points.” From now on I am going to refer to them as “points.” (points = dollars btw) The reason why is that for me a bad month is still a heck of a lot of money. And when I get down on myself for falling short of my goals yet still make a lot of money in the process, it can skew people’s perspectives of what the true goal is and that is a relentless pursuit of perfection. I feel like if everyone had the attitude of, “boo hoo you still made x number of dollars” then guys like Tiger Woods or Michael Jordan or fill in the blank would never exist. On a bad month Tiger probably makes 10 million dollars. But if every time he played poorly for a month he just told himself, “Forget about it, I still made 10 million dollars” then he would never sustain the competitive edge necessary to compete at the highest level imaginable. Now I am no Tiger Woods, but I would sure like to be. And I will surely never get there by being fat and happy just because I made a lot of money. So from now on I am setting goals to earn a certain amount of points per month and that way hopefully that will disassociate money with what it is I am trying to accomplish. I hope that makes sense.

Congrats to Barack on securing the nomination. I am pretty pumped up right now to say the least. There is still a long way to go of course and obviously I hope he pulls through in the general election. One thing that has gotten me very fired up lately is this crazy priest named Father Michael Pfleger who is going around apparently trying to make a name for himself and bashing Hillary in the process. Pfleger apparently is a “friend” of Obama’s former church and has had some sort of relationship with Obama in the past although nowhere near the type of association that he had with Reverend Wright. Pfleger said that Hillary cried in the New Hampshire primaries back in February because she felt that she deserved the election because of her “white entitlement”. He also said that she was thinking, “Who is this black man stealing my show?” I don’t get how someone can be so stupid as to make a comment like this. I mean I fiercely disagree that this is what she thought, but even if that IS what she thought, and you are a person that presumably wants Obama to win, why the heck would you say this at the church that is the center of all this controversy? I just don’t get it. How could he be so stupid? And do you think he learned his lesson after saying those stupid comments? Hell no. He went ahead and bashed her some more the very next weekend back at his own church…lol. Not only does this type of stuff have no place in church, I just can’t believe he would be so selfish and so unaware of the consequences of his actions. The Bible teaches you to do onto others as you would like them to do onto you. This guy can’t even practice something so basic as the leader of a church on his Sunday service and in my opinion has no business leading anything much less a church. So memo to Father Pfleger: Seriously, shut Up!!!!!!!!!

I’m looking forward to Jared coming into town tomorrow evening. We made plans on Thrusday to play golf at Chamber’s Bay in Seattle, WA area. This brand new course is supposed to be incredible and was actually awarded the 2015 US Open and the 2010 US Amateur. It is right along Puget Sound and is a links style course. It is supposed to rival the Bandon Dunes courses so it will be interesting to see if that is the case. I am super excited right now and truthfully can’t wait to play there. It promises to be a day to remember. The week is mostly going to be filled with golf and www.10thgreen.com stuff where we make the final preparations before we launch in a month or so. Jared and I will also do some work together to make sure my mental approach is sound. It has become a vital part of my success in managing my emotions. I recently adopted a pre game mental exercise that is also helping me to get in an amazing frame of mind before my session. So far I am actually seeing results this month in earning 26k “points.” : )

One of the things I have always been extremely proud of with Stoxpoker is that while we all have a jillion different opinions on a wide range of topics, as a group we have always been respectful and courteous to each other. I just want to urge everyone to continue to keep up the good work. It is vital to the success of the forums and ultimately the enjoyment of the members, that Stoxpoker continue to be the friendliest poker site on the web. In my opinion there is no place for anything short of a friendly attitude when posting. Now that being said, I will be the first to admit that at times I myself have been hypocritical in regards to this. It is not easy when someone says something directed at you that just makes your skin boil. It is easy to give in and just tell them to go jump off a bridge (or much worse things…lol). And like I said I am hypocritical in that I have told many people to jump off a bridge (on 2+2 anyways, never on Stoxpoker, I think…lol), but that doesn’t make it right. So I guess since a good chunk of us are guilty of maybe flying off the handle with attacks towards others from time to time, let’s all help each other out and avoid that at all costs. One thing that works for me to help avoid forum tilt is to simply close the page and later on when you have had time to absorb what has offended you, then is the time to reply and you will more than likely give a response that is more productive and reflective of how you actually feel. Because how you feel when you are angry and how you REALLY feel on a normal basis are two different things. So anyway that is the suggestion. I feel like so many mods on various forums are quick to impose bans and send nasty PM’s telling you to shape up or ship out. There can be a time and a place for that of course, but I am here to possibly offer advice to help avoid the situation in the first place rather than just try to be some power tripping mod. I hope this helps. So far it has been working for me.

BTW just realized that this is my 211th blog I've written for Stoxpoker. I never would of guessed it was that that high. It's been fun and I look forward to many, many more.

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Atlantic City

Date: Tue, Jun 3, 2008 Professional Internet

It's taken this long to recover from the awesomeness that was Atlantic City two weekends ago. We stayed at the Tropicana since the poker rate was supposed to be very good (I'd never been there so I wasn't holding my expectations too highly). I couldn't believe how nicely the casino was redone. The ceilings were rip-offs from the Venetian in Las Vegas, but I don't care because they were still gorgeous. Hand painted murals of a sunny day and bright blue sky were surrounded by huge marble columns that were absolutely beautiful.

Not so beautiful were the waitresses, though I am accustomed to Las Vegas waitresses so I guess I'm spoiled. We played primarily at the Tropicana since the comps were good and the chips aren't magnetic like they are at the Borgata which is REALLY annoying. I sat with my friend Dusty (not Leatherass, another Dusty), and within four hands he got stacked with a set against a flush. So much for the weekend starting off well. Our table was all sorts of entertainment varying from old European ladies, which is the draw of live poker for me. That and getting hammered at the table. I vaguely remember myself and three friends getting about 1/3 of the poker room to sing "God bless america." The best part? The next day every dealer that sat down gave me a half smile and said, "were you the one singing 'God bless america' last night?" Love it.

The next night our Seattle friend, Brandon Schaefer, showed up after being at a bachelor party in New York City. We haven't seen him in a while so it was awesome that he could swing by for shenanigans. Schaefer just finished 10th in the $1500 PLO by the way. What a luckbox.

With Schaefer around we fooled around at $2-$4 LHE and drank our faces off before deciding it would be a good idea to go to the Taj to see the escalator from the movie "Rounders" and then eat at the noodle bar from the movie also. It's too bad I can't recollect the entire event very well, I only remember Schaefer asking every girl passing by if they wanted some noodles.

AC casinos must have lightened up a lot since the last time I was there, as the next night after we all finished playing, we decided to just sit around an empty poker table at 4am, cracked open an 18-pack that we just purchased, and played what I think we called, "drink the beer." Basically, we took a large swig from a beer and passed it around the table. In any other casino I've been in, this is not aloud and we probably should've been kicked out instantly, but somehow we spent over an hour playing drink the beer before getting four hot girls to sit down with us to play as well.

All in all it was a very successful trip and we had a phenomenal time. I can't wait to go back with the awesome crew that went this time, hopefully some stoxpoker members will be able to join us as well.

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Matt Blogs the WSOP: Event 3, $1,500 Pot Limit Hold 'Em

Date: Tue, Jun 3, 2008 Professional Internet

As advertised, I've made it to Vegas and I just played my first event in the 2008 World Series of Poker--the $1,500 Pot Limit Hold 'Em tournament.

I picked this event partially because I thought most of the top pros would skip it in favor of the $5,000 mixed Hold 'Em tournament later in the day. This theory backfired when I sat down only to see Erik Seidel sitting to my immediate left. Oh well.

On my third hand of this WSOP I got dealt pocket aces under the gun. I min-raised and everyone folded. I didn't see aces again today, but with some luck I'll see them again this month.

A few key hands.

At the 100-200 level, UTG limped. UTG had been limping a ton and playing passively in general. He accused me of making a squeeze play once (and he was sort of right--I had KQ that hand), so I had a feeling he was itching to play back at me. I made it 800 in the next seat with two jacks. It folded back to UTG and he raised the pot, to 2700 total. I had 5250 in my stack, and thought for a while. I decided to call, leaving myself with 3350, knowing I would be committed on almost every flop. (I figured I might still get away on some ace-high flops. Maybe I would've been better off just moving in preflop.) I really thought there was a decent chance UTG had AK or a smaller pair than mine. The flop came 764, UTG moved me in and I called instantly. He did indeed have AK and I doubled up.

At the 150-300 level, a loose player opened in early position for 1,050. I made it 3k a few seats later with AK. EP called, leaving himself 1,600. The flop came king-high and he went all-in. I called instantly (of course) and he had KQ. River queen.

Same level, UTG opens for 900. I make it 2,500 on the button with AK. Folds to UTG, who moves in for 4,150 more. I call (of course), and he has two tens. I lose the race.

I ended up busting in level six. Here are the relevant stats.

Starting stack: 3,000
End level one: 2,750
End L2: 3,075
End L3: 6,050
End L4: 8,675
End L5: 3,600
Level 6: Busto
High water mark: 13,500 (level 4)
Low point before busting: 1,950 (level 5)

I'm doing a feature in my blogs this year called Best and Worst Plays where I, you guessed it, write about the best and worst plays I encounter in WSOP events. I'm not exactly sure what the format will be going forward, but let's try this for today.

My best play: I didn't really have any superstar plays today, but I reraised a late raiser with 64s when I was almost sure he was weak and he folded instantly, so I'll go with that one.

My worst play: I also don't think I did anything colossally bad, but I think I got a little over-aggressive on one hand against David Singer. At the 100-200 level, David opened in the cutoff for 600. Some pertinent info: David was playing two tournaments at once, he had just won a huge pot the previous hand, and he probably was not over-anxious to get involved with me since we had a relatively soft table. I made it 1,800 in the big blind with A5o. So far I think this was fine, as I think David gives up often enough preflop to justify my reraise. David called. The flop came 883 with two diamonds and I led out for 2,200. I often check in this situation, and I think I should've checked here. Once David chooses to see the flop, it's pretty likely he has a good enough hand to play on that very un-scary board. I decided to bet to protect the times I wanted to bet for value, but I don't think this was the time or place for it. David raised the pot and I had to fold.

Best play from others: David's play in the above hand. I don't know what he had, but if he had a big hand he got the maximum value for it, and if he had a bluff, he got me to put in 4k and then fold. Seems like he played it superbly no matter what he had.

Worst play from others: There were many to choose from. I'm going with this play from the guy who beat my AK with his KQ. At the 50-100 level, an EP player made it 300 and our friend called in the next seat. The next player made it 1,350 (pot-sized raise). The original raiser folded, our friend thought for a while and called. The flop came 982 rainbow. Our friend immediately led out for 700 into the 3,150 pot. His opponent moved him in, and he tanked for a long time before folding and leaving himself 1,300. Putting in more than 60 percent of your chips and then folding on a nine-high board is one of the worst things you can do at a poker table. Don't do it.

My next event: Event 5, $1,000 NL Hold 'Em with Rebuys.

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Supernova Elite: The Math of Rakeback Grinding

Date: Tue, Jun 3, 2008 Professional Internet

Recently I got an interesting PM from member imnuts. The question was basically: I'm thinking about grinding to become Elite on Stars, is [Plan X] a good one?

Here' my answer, both how to achieve this and whether it's worth it.

I'm going to base this on playing $100 SNGs for a couple of reasons: (a) You can have a bankroll of around $7500, rather than 10's of thousands or something huge; (b) the $100's run fairly continuously and you can definitely grind them. (The $200's and up are a little more sparse.)

You get 5 VPP's per $ rake, and pay $9 in rake per game. So to get 1M VPP you need to play 22,222 games over the year. Assuming you treat this like a regular job and work 5 days a week, taking two weeks vacation a year, you'll spread this over 250 days -- that's 89 games a day.

Let's say you can 10-table, and play around 15 games an hour. That's 6 hours a day of pretty intense grinding each day of your work week.

In exchange for this, you get: (a) 3.5 M FPP, worth around $52000, (b) $28k in the form of 6 Milestone bonuses (which lowers (a) a little since you have to redeem 50k FPPs to get each one), and (b) Around $20k in cash/MTT bonuses when you hit.

On top of all that, the following year you collect 5 FPPs per VPP, upping your rakeback from around 26% to around 37%.

So net, even if you are strictly breakeven grinding, you can make close to $100k in bonuses over the year, and up your profit potential even more for the following year.

Should you do it?

Maybe. If you love grinding and you're making money off your raw games alone, then by all means give it a shot. But this can become a pretty soul-eating goal. If you are strictly doing it for the bonuses, and become sick of non-stop grinding, or find softer tables at a different site, or want to try a different less-rakebacky game, then you're shit out of luck. And imagine hitting a huge downswing and being forced to continue 6 hour-a-day high-volume grinding. That would suck.

So at least, I would give a LOT of thought to this decision before making it a full-fledged plan for 1 year of your life.

Going after SNE is a neat goal, and you can make pretty good money with a sub $10k initial investment. But I think there's a pretty good reason that LA described the decision as "the worst of his poker career" (or something along those lines), because my suspicion is that it's going to be real hard to make it there without seriously regretting the decision at a few points along the way.

Discussion at:

http://www.stoxpoker.com/forums/showthread.php?p=84491#post84491

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First Losing Month

Date: Mon, Jun 2, 2008 Professional Internet

I had my first losing month...ever. I have played seriously for 3 years and I have never had a losing month(obv). Most of that was due to me spending about a year propping and with 100% rakeback having a losing month is pretty close to impossible. Ironically, the only other month I finished down in the games(ty RB) was May of 2006, which was my first month as a professional. It wasn't a good start, but hey, it has gone great so far.

How does it feel to have a losing month? Well, pretty good actually. A h and, day, month, year etc are all pretty arbitrary anyway. Bad streaks are always very humbling, and this one was no different. I played far from my best poker this month. I was tilty and made some pretty horrendous plays. I did not always play with the best focus and fucking rad bad too ;) That is ok though, it happens to us all.

What have I learned from it? Well, I got a bit lazy the two previous months. I let my study habits slip a little, and it showed this month. My game just was not there at times. Since I have been back in the south I have spent a great deal of time going over my game and working on fixing leaks and managing game flow. I did what I have always done during bad streaks, moved down. It allows me to play softer competition which reduces variance and allows me to re-work my game to a certain extent. I played 5K hands of 600NL trying to play mostly regs and I crushed it for 15ptBB. I obviously probably ran well, but I was playing much much better. Some of the regs play so bad it just really doesn't make sense to me. Some are ok though, but have pretty glaring leaks.

I have since moved up to 5/10 and a little 10/20. I hope to be back playing 5K and higher come July. But knowing me if I see a juicy spot or feel I am on top of my game for a week or two I will probably be playing higher sooner rather than later.

I still have only played my A game in spurts though. The last two session I have really played well IMO. I booked a 10K win each session so that is always nice. More importantly I only mis-played a hand or two during those sessions and the mistake were marginal at worst.

My dad is doing great. He is actually going to go to work for a couple of hours tomorrow. My mother has finished with school right now and will be home all summer, so that is going to allow me to move to Caribbean as I had originally planned. It will be weird landing in a new place with only a backpack and a suitcase full of stuff and having to find a place to live and buy a car within a week or so. It will quite the experience I hope. It should be fun though. Wish me luck.

Lately I have gotten back into the habit of reading, which is something I used to do all the time. Before I started playing poker I would easily go through a book a week, now I am lucky if I can get through one every month or two. Maybe I can fix that. I am off to a good start, so far. I have recently finished Gang Leader for a Day, which is a book about the study published in Freakanomics. It was a really good book. I actually sat down an read it cover to cover. I highly recommend it. I also read All for a Few Perfect Waves, which is the story of Miki Dora. Miki was the king of Malibu in the good ole days of surfing. He was a really unique character. The books is basically a collection of interviews from the people who he knew over the years. Think of it is Catch Me if You Can meets Endless Summer. It was another really great read. They use a quote in from the book called The Wanderer that I really like.

"To be truly challenging, a voyage, like a life, must rest on a firm foundation of financial unrest. Otherwise, you are doomed to a routine traverse, the kind known to yachtsmen who play with their boats at sea... cruising, it is called. Voyaging belongs to seamen, and to the wanderers of the world who cannot, or will not, fit in. If you are contemplating a voyage and you have the means, abandon the venture until your fortunes change. Only then will you know what the sea is all about. I've always wanted to sail to the south seas, but I can't afford it." What these men can't afford is not to go. They are enmeshed in the cancerous discipline of security. And in the worship of security we fling our lives beneath the wheels of routine - and before we know it our lives are gone. What does a man need - really need? A few pounds of food each day, heat and shelter, six feet to lie down in - and some form of working activity that will yield a sense of accomplishment. That's all - in the material sense, and we know it. But we are brainwashed by our economic system until we end up in a tomb beneath a pyramid of time payments, mortgages, preposterous gadgetry, playthings that divert our attention for the sheer idiocy of the charade. The years thunder by, The dreams of youth grow dim where they lie caked in dust on the shelves of patience. Before we know it, the tomb is sealed. Where, then, lies the answer? In choice. Which shall it be: bankruptcy of purse or bankruptcy of life?"

The spirit of this quote really make me smile. Obviously my up coming trip is not going to be on the firm foundation of financial unrest, but hopefully it will be rewarding all the same.

I have just started The Electric Kool-aid Acid Test, which is a book about the hippies and the 60s. It is different so far, but enjoyable.

I have also watched Gone Baby, Gone and Lions for Lambs. Gone Baby Gone was ok at best. It was so so predictable. If you have nothing else to do or nothing else to watch the feel free, but otherwise, meh. Lions for Lambs was freaking awesome though. This is one you just cannot miss. Definitely check it out.

Now on to June. What are my goals for this month? Well, they are the same that they are for everyday, every month, and every year. Try and take over the world Pinky!

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Met the Moshman and other News

Date: Mon, Jun 2, 2008 Professional Internet

Hey Everyone. I last blogged in late April and I hadn't realized that I missed May until today! May was a very busy month for me. My boss changed my job requirements mid-stream which required me to travel quite a bit, which was not a requirement before. In early May I left Atlanta on Monday morning, flew to Newark, took the train into NYC for the afternoon, and then flew to Toronto that evening. Wednesday I flew from Toronto to Baltimore for company training and was supposed to be there through Friday. Fortunately, I took advantage of the opportunity to stay over Friday night and hooked up with Collin and Katie on Friday night and flew home Saturday morning. The flight from Toronto to Baltimore was on a little Dash-8 ( a propeller plane ) and it was so bumpy that 18 of the 20 people on the plane lost their lunch. Fortunately, I was not one of them, but I came very close because of the smell in the plane.

Meeting them in person was very cool. Katie is extremely nice and very gracious. While Collin was in France, she offered to let me crash on their couch that Friday night and I accepted. When the time came to head for Collins place, he wasn't home to meet me because I was getting there earlier than expected and I noticed that a Hilton was pretty much right across the street. So I checked into the hotel and got a room.

We hooked up about 5pm. I got to watch him play a set of 4 games, and then he sweated me while I played 2. After that we headed to dinner. I'm kind of envious that he lives in a really cool area where he can walk to a nice downtown spot that has great shops and restaurants within a 5 minute walk. Where I live, the closest Gas Station is 5 miles away :)

When we got back to his place we fired up the pokerz and began to make a video. Suck-outs enused big time. Video process #2 started and the result is the latest video of the project.

When I started the project I was playing $5 and $10 SNG's. I'm now playing $11, $22 and $33 SNG's. After I returned home I went on a HUGE downswing. So now I'm back to $11 and $22's. I also hit Silver Star on Poker Stars for the first time. Once I realized how crappy the rewards actually are for a low-medium volume player, I decided the time was right for me to leave Poker Stars for a while. I hate doing this, as I love Stars, but it doesn't make sense to stay when I can get rakeback that far exceeds the benefits I get from playing at Stars. So for June, I'm experimenting with playing on Full Tilt full-time. I now average 15-20 SNG's a day and at the $11 - $22 range that will work out to $100 - $150 in rakeback per month. With Iron Man bonuses that far exceeds any expectation I could have at Stars. The games seem a little softer at the $11's on Full Tilt but the $22's definitely require some table selection. On the other hand, the "winning players" on Full Tilt seem to be a little looser on the bubble. Whatever, adjustments are needed compared to Stars, and I think I'm starting to adjust accordingly. Hopefully this will work out and be a long term +EV move for me.

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Observations on Europe, North America, and Golf

Date: Sun, Jun 1, 2008 Professional Internet

I think if we let him Dusty would take over the entire front page in a matter of days.

So there were a few things that stuck out for me immediately upon returning from Western Europe. The first is how flagrantly wasteful and inefficient the NA transportation system is. Absolutely massive amounts of space are given over driving cars, parking cars and refueling cars. It's kind of a self-defeating system, too, since I'm not sure that the sort of metro system you'd find in a place like London would really work in the city I'm from (ignoring the fact that in my particular city it's winter 6 months out of the year) on account of everything being so spaced out to accommodate vehicular traffic. It's very difficult to function in a city like Edmonton if you don't own a vehicle, unless you live in the downtown core. Traveling by bicycle like you could in Amsterdam is out of the question. The other thing that hammers it home is the size of the vehicles people drive. Graham once spotted a small SUV while we were in the UK and commented, in all seriousness, "look at that monster go." Here more vehicles than not are SUVs and pickups, so it's really odd to come back from such a space-scarce environment and see so many people just driving around hauling lots of wasted space. Even the beamer, which is a reasonably small car by NA standards, feels a bit bloated after driving around in an Astra (which is a perfectly reasonable car itself). Maybe there are downsides to having ten times as many venues in the same amount of square area and not needing a vehicle to get anywhere, but there are certainly enormous upsides, too.

The second thing that sticks out is that NA is architecturally sterile. The physical cities in Europe are themselves very culturally rich. These are old, old places, and over the centuries the best stuff has been kept and the other things have been replaced with improvements, which is repeated every other century or so. A lot of the cities in western NA are hardly more than 100 or 150 years old themselves, and for the most part strike me as an exercise in macroeconomics. Add a residential zone here, copy-paste a small commercial zone with a supermarket and a strip mall into it, zone a larger commercial area every so often, repeat ad infinitum.

After getting back about a week ago I immediately did some laundry, re-packed, and drove out to a golf resort in Kokanee with my father, who's a somewhat more enthusiastic golfer than I am. I thought I'd leave the camera behind for this trip, and I regret it. The area's itself was beautiful, as was the course itself. The package came with daily lessons, which I was pretty keen on. I find going out on the course and just guessing as to what to do often ends in frustration. A lot of people I know play golf, and to some degree I play golf as well, but there's very little I understand about golf in terms of fundamentals (the extent of my golf education being reading Ben Hogan's book). A few thoughts on golf before I move on:

1) The thing about golf that's different from most any other sport is that you don't really get a sense of playing against your competitors. If you're playing soccer or hockey, for example, you can be pretty bad at either but you will typically be playing against other people who are also pretty poor and will have a fairly even, athletic playing field. In golf you're playing against the course, which doesn't change no matter how unskilled you are. Therefore, if you're new to golf it's going to kick your ass.

2) Swinging a golf club is a very unnatural movement. Never before have I played a sport where I have had less natural intuition as to how I might improve my technique. Swinging a racket makes sense. Swinging a golf club is loony. You can't kill mammoths like that.

So what I was really hoping for was a lot of "practice doing this and this a lot and you'll build a decent, consistent swing" but what I got was a lot less quantitative than that that, though I got the impression that this wasn't exactly the most hard-core golf school out there and perhaps that's what I'm looking for (though at least now I know how to hit a bunker shot properly). People seem to give golf different psychological treatment than other sports, in that if you were to going to try and learn to play hockey with no instruction people would call you crazy, but a lot of people try and approach golf (and, incidentally, poker) like that. If I do decide to do more with the sport I think I'll shop around for a private instructor I like at one of the local courses and team that up with camcorder review (which is actually something I've wanted to do for fencing for a while now). In the meantime I'll be sticking to my 9-holes-max policy and leaving the single digit handicap stuff to Dusty and Nick.

Also, a new article on combinatorial analysis is up in the 2+2 magazine and can be found here.

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